Random Look At A 5-Well Pad In The Grail -- March 20, 2015

Updates

April 16, 2017: is QEP getting ready to frack some new wells in this area?

May 7, 2015: this "mis-allocation" story gets curiouser and curiouser (see below). The jump in production in December, 2014, for #18973 was attributed to mis-allocation of commingled crude oil production from this pad. Now I see another jump in production in March, 2015. Also note that when  #28168 was fracked, only one well was taken off-line ($18973); the other three continued to show production. #28165 has shown minimal production since January, 2015, whereas #18973 has shown a significant jump. Misallocation? Tanks on the pad full? Typing in the lat/long (47.816946, -102.838920) on google maps, one will find an old photo of the pad (just one pumper).

It is time to look at production from all wells on this pad:

#18973:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	11168	11032	3505	10588	9428	1081
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	8865	8753	4064	10435	8761	1522
BAKKEN	1-2015	12	4012	4099	1069	2550	0	2505
BAKKEN	12-2014	30	12206	12061	4779	14089	0	13975
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	0	0	0	0	0	0

#28165:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	1	584	700	182	714	600	104
BAKKEN	1-2015	13	8815	8832	3098	9210	0	9112
BAKKEN	12-2014	23	12088	12166	5019	14246	0	14133
BAKKEN	11-2014	27	21431	21291	12279	25501	0	25342
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	5959	5877	6326	9891	0	9854

 #28166:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	19987	19764	5595	23128	20622	2365
BAKKEN	2-2015	20	16841	16922	4590	20901	17560	3051
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	28058	27941	9067	34444	0	34133
BAKKEN	12-2014	29	24147	24258	8581	31175	0	30949
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	38553	38375	25356	59651	0	59364
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	16130	15909	8266	23767	0	2366

#28167:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	22	20286	20075	4493	22698	20234	2321
BAKKEN	2-2015	18	17932	18077	2802	21861	18362	3191
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	33905	33868	5942	41700	0	41324
BAKKEN	12-2014	29	37980	38041	6000	47603	0	47247
BAKKEN	11-2014	25	49630	49395	10433	60573	0	60204
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	20395	20116	8041	31493	0	31367

#28168, which is said to be IA -- no production since the middle of January, 2015.

• 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail, middle Bakken; 36 stages; 3.6 million lbs: t11/11/14; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	16	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	14	1102	1126	940	1379	0	1367
BAKKEN	12-2014	22	3393	3353	2161	3087	0	3055
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	19	1634	1612	1324	308	0	29

Original Post

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical errors; it is possible there are factual errors, but hopefully not; it is difficult, sometimes, to separate facts from my thoughts on what the data shows. If this information is important to you, go to the source, such as the NDIC or a landman.

This will be a long post, but it might serve to enlighten us about the Bakken.

It involves five QEP wells on one pad sited in the Grail oil field. There seems to be a bit of "confusion" with regard to the scout ticket for the first well on this pad; the scout ticket says #18973 is a Blue Buttes well; it is not; it is a Grail well just like the others.

The "original" State well on this pad was drilled/tested back in 2010 -- that's five years ago.

Then, in late 2014 (October, 2014, or thereabouts) four more State wells on this pad were drilled/fracked tested.

Let's look at the four most recent wells first and their production profiles:

• 28165, 1,444, QEP, State 1-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs, t10/14; cum 42K 1/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	13	8815	8832	3098	9210	0	9112
BAKKEN	12-2014	23	12088	12166	5019	14246	0	14133
BAKKEN	11-2014	27	21431	21291	12279	25501	0	25342

• 28166, 2,204, QEP, State 2-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs;  t10/14; cum 107K 1/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	28058	27941	9067	34444	0	34133
BAKKEN	12-2014	29	24147	24258	8581	31175	0	30949
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	38553	38375	25356	59651	0	59364
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	16130	15909	8266	23767	0	23668

• 28167, 2,761, QEP, State 2-16-21TH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; t10/14; cum 142K 1/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	33905	33868	5942	41700	0	41324
BAKKEN	12-2014	29	37980	38041	6000	47603	0	47247
BAKKEN	11-2014	25	49630	49395	10433	60573	0	60204
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	20395	20116	8041	31493	0	31367

• 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; t12/14; cum 6K 1/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	14	1102	1126	940	1379	0	1367
BAKKEN	12-2014	22	3393	3353	2161	3087	0	3055
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	-1	21	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	19	1634	1612	1324	308	0	298

Several story lines among those four wells. We will come back to those story lines later. 

But first, we will return to the oldest well on that pad. This well runs south into the Grail oil field (GIS map server):

• 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes (scout ticket - a mistake; this is a Grail well), Three Forks; t10/10, cum 484K 1/15; inactive since 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; production profile since January, 2014:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2015	12	4012	4099	1069	2550	0	2505
BAKKEN	12-2014	30	12206	12061	4779	14089	0	13975
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	1	1	1	0	231	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	25	5465	5790	587	408	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	5599	5821	607	2597	2176	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	4490	4158	368	4632	4252	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	5299	5296	487	6337	5920	0

Look at the huge jump in production in December, 2014, after being off-line for several months. The well was taken off-line during the period when the four (4) new wells were being drilled / fracked. Don't be misled by the huge decline in the following month; note, the well only produced for 12 days in January, 2015.

Also note: some of the wells were on-line for less than half the month of January, 2015; this must have been an operational decision, not due to the weather, because the other wells on the pad were on-line the full month of January, 2015. A full month of production at the same rate seen for 12 days would have been over 10,000 bbls in January, 2015.

The well file report is not helpful in answering that question, as far as I can tell. There are three possibilities: a) an error due to mis-allocation due to commingling with other wells into tank battery; b) halo effect of new fracking; or, c) re-fracked.

Based on data of the production / runs from the other wells, I rule out (a) -- mis-allocation.

That leaves a halo effect or a re-frack. Since there is no mention in the well file report of a request to re-frack or a notification to re-frack (although I may have missed it, or the paperwork may be still be in the mail), it appears the jump in production is due to the halo effect of new fracking.

I was the first non-advertising supported blog that opined that fracking was effective out to 500 feet (radially) -- at best. Interestingly enough, the distance between the old TF well and the new TF well is no more than 528 feet at most spots along the two horizontals.  

So, what accounts for the huge jump in production for the older well (#18973)? Again, there was not a huge decline the following month; the well was only on-line for twelve (12) days in January.

Re-cap:

• 18973: Three Forks, 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; 2,579,
• 28165: middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs; 1,444,
• 28166: middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs; 2,204,
• 28167: Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; 2,761, 
• 28168: middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; 649, 

Here is what the GIS map server looks like in this area as of this date (file number, formation, pounds of proppant in millions, IP):

I hope I'm not making a mistake here, or that there isn't a typo, but I cannot explain the huge difference in the IPs between #28168 (middle Bakken) and the other three middle Bakken (and the two TF wells for that matter). One has to assume the geology was identical. It is possible the seam was "thinner" but highly doubtful. We don't have the geologist's report yet, but the percent of time the bore is in the seam is critical. 

Total production to date is not comparing apples to oranges exactly due to slight difference in number of months of production, but there is a huge difference in total production for the new Three Forks well compared to the three middle Bakken wells.

I haven't done any other analysis of Three Forks vs middle Bakken wells in the Grail oil field. Could be interesting.

Again, in a long note like this there will be typographical errors. There may be factual errors. There could be some whoppers. No errors were done on purpose and will, of course, be corrected when found. I have not proofread the post yet but will eventually get around to it. If this information is important to you, go to the source, such as the NDIC or a landman.