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Friday, March 20, 2015

Random Look At A 5-Well Pad In The Grail -- March 20, 2015

Updates

April 16, 2017: is QEP getting ready to frack some new wells in this area?

May 7, 2015: this "mis-allocation" story gets curiouser and curiouser (see below). The jump in production in December, 2014, for #18973 was attributed to mis-allocation of commingled crude oil production from this pad. Now I see another jump in production in March, 2015. Also note that when  #28168 was fracked, only one well was taken off-line ($18973); the other three continued to show production. #28165 has shown minimal production since January, 2015, whereas #18973 has shown a significant jump. Misallocation? Tanks on the pad full? Typing in the lat/long (47.816946, -102.838920) on google maps, one will find an old photo of the pad (just one pumper).

It is time to look at production from all wells on this pad:

#18973:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201531111681103235051058894281081
BAKKEN2-2015288865875340641043587611522
BAKKEN1-201512401240991069255002505
BAKKEN12-2014301220612061477914089013975
BAKKEN11-201430000000
BAKKEN10-201431000000

#28165:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201500110000
BAKKEN2-20151584700182714600104
BAKKEN1-201513881588323098921009112
BAKKEN12-2014231208812166501914246014133
BAKKEN11-20142721431212911227925501025342
BAKKEN10-201431595958776326989109854



 #28166:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2015311998719764559523128206222365
BAKKEN2-2015201684116922459020901175603051
BAKKEN1-2015312805827941906734444034133
BAKKEN12-2014292414724258858131175030949
BAKKEN11-20143038553383752535659651059364
BAKKEN10-201431161301590982662376702366

#28167:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2015222028620075449322698202342321
BAKKEN2-2015181793218077280221861183623191
BAKKEN1-2015313390533868594241700041324
BAKKEN12-2014293798038041600047603047247
BAKKEN11-20142549630493951043360573060204
BAKKEN10-2014312039520116804131493031367

#28168, which is said to be IA -- no production since the middle of January, 2015.
  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail, middle Bakken; 36 stages; 3.6 million lbs: t11/11/14; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-201500160000
BAKKEN1-20151411021126940137901367
BAKKEN12-201422339333532161308703055
BAKKEN11-201400220000
BAKKEN10-201419163416121324308029

Original Post
Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical errors; it is possible there are factual errors, but hopefully not; it is difficult, sometimes, to separate facts from my thoughts on what the data shows. If this information is important to you, go to the source, such as the NDIC or a landman.

This will be a long post, but it might serve to enlighten us about the Bakken.

It involves five QEP wells on one pad sited in the Grail oil field. There seems to be a bit of "confusion" with regard to the scout ticket for the first well on this pad; the scout ticket says #18973 is a Blue Buttes well; it is not; it is a Grail well just like the others.

The "original" State well on this pad was drilled/tested back in 2010 -- that's five years ago.

Then, in late 2014 (October, 2014, or thereabouts) four more State wells on this pad were drilled/fracked tested.

Let's look at the four most recent wells first and their production profiles:
  • 28165, 1,444, QEP, State 1-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs, t10/14; cum 42K 1/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201513881588323098921009112
BAKKEN12-2014231208812166501914246014133
BAKKEN11-20142721431212911227925501025342

  • 28166, 2,204, QEP, State 2-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs;  t10/14; cum 107K 1/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2015312805827941906734444034133
BAKKEN12-2014292414724258858131175030949
BAKKEN11-20143038553383752535659651059364
BAKKEN10-2014311613015909826623767023668

  • 28167, 2,761, QEP, State 2-16-21TH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; t10/14; cum 142K 1/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2015313390533868594241700041324
BAKKEN12-2014293798038041600047603047247
BAKKEN11-20142549630493951043360573060204
BAKKEN10-2014312039520116804131493031367

  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; t12/14; cum 6K 1/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20151411021126940137901367
BAKKEN12-201422339333532161308703055
BAKKEN11-20140-1210000
BAKKEN10-2014191634161213243080298

Several story lines among those four wells. We will come back to those story lines later. 

But first, we will return to the oldest well on that pad. This well runs south into the Grail oil field (GIS map server):
  • 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes (scout ticket - a mistake; this is a Grail well), Three Forks; t10/10, cum 484K 1/15; inactive since 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; production profile since January, 2014:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201512401240991069255002505
BAKKEN12-2014301220612061477914089013975
BAKKEN11-201430000000
BAKKEN10-201431000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-2014111023100
BAKKEN4-2014255465579058740800
BAKKEN3-20143155995821607259721760
BAKKEN2-20142844904158368463242520
BAKKEN1-20143152995296487633759200

Look at the huge jump in production in December, 2014, after being off-line for several months. The well was taken off-line during the period when the four (4) new wells were being drilled / fracked. Don't be misled by the huge decline in the following month; note, the well only produced for 12 days in January, 2015.

Also note: some of the wells were on-line for less than half the month of January, 2015; this must have been an operational decision, not due to the weather, because the other wells on the pad were on-line the full month of January, 2015. A full month of production at the same rate seen for 12 days would have been over 10,000 bbls in January, 2015.

The well file report is not helpful in answering that question, as far as I can tell. There are three possibilities: a) an error due to mis-allocation due to commingling with other wells into tank battery; b) halo effect of new fracking; or, c) re-fracked.

Based on data of the production / runs from the other wells, I rule out (a) -- mis-allocation.

That leaves a halo effect or a re-frack. Since there is no mention in the well file report of a request to re-frack or a notification to re-frack (although I may have missed it, or the paperwork may be still be in the mail), it appears the jump in production is due to the halo effect of new fracking.

I was the first non-advertising supported blog that opined that fracking was effective out to 500 feet (radially) -- at best. Interestingly enough, the distance between the old TF well and the new TF well is no more than 528 feet at most spots along the two horizontals.  

So, what accounts for the huge jump in production for the older well (#18973)? Again, there was not a huge decline the following month; the well was only on-line for twelve (12) days in January.

Re-cap:
  • 18973: Three Forks, 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; 2,579,
  • 28165: middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs; 1,444,
  • 28166: middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs; 2,204,
  • 28167: Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; 2,761
  • 28168: middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; 649
Here is what the GIS map server looks like in this area as of this date (file number, formation, pounds of proppant in millions, IP):



I hope I'm not making a mistake here, or that there isn't a typo, but I cannot explain the huge difference in the IPs between #28168 (middle Bakken) and the other three middle Bakken (and the two TF wells for that matter). One has to assume the geology was identical. It is possible the seam was "thinner" but highly doubtful. We don't have the geologist's report yet, but the percent of time the bore is in the seam is critical. 

Total production to date is not comparing apples to oranges exactly due to slight difference in number of months of production, but there is a huge difference in total production for the new Three Forks well compared to the three middle Bakken wells.

I haven't done any other analysis of Three Forks vs middle Bakken wells in the Grail oil field. Could be interesting.

Again, in a long note like this there will be typographical errors. There may be factual errors. There could be some whoppers. No errors were done on purpose and will, of course, be corrected when found. I have not proofread the post yet but will eventually get around to it. If this information is important to you, go to the source, such as the NDIC or a landman.

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