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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Chinese Demand For Oil Highest Since 2012 -- Not Surprising -- March 17, 2015; Meanwhile, COP Expects Production To Increase 11% Over Next Three Years; Africa's Biggest Oil Producer Hit Hard

A reader caught this, sent it to me. Platts is reporting:
China's apparent oil demand rose 2.6% over the first two months of this year to 83.92 million mt or an average 10.43 million b/d, Platts estimates showed Monday, March 16, based on recently released government data.

This is the highest rate of growth over the period since the 5.7% recorded in 2012.

Last year, there was a 0.6% year-on-year contraction in China's apparent oil demand over January to February.
When I saw that, I replied to the reader:
I wrote on the blog, I think, or personal e-mail to someone, that it will be interesting to see consumption of oil at it hits new lows.
Common sense tells me human nature is such that people will conserve less when it is so cheap.
I am very, very sensitive to the price of gasoline and do what I can to limit mileage when gasoline is expensive, but for the past few months, I have truly enjoyed driving, not worried about price of gasoline.
It will be interesting to see what American drivers do over Memorial Day weekend. I think the US sets a record of gasoline consumption this Memorial Day weekend. China, it appears, is doing its best to live up to human nature -- using more oil when it is so inexpensive. Smile.
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CAPEX Cut -- Production To Rise Over At COP

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting:
ConocoPhillips expects production to climb 11 percent to touch 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in 2017.
The company, whose forecast excludes output from Libya, produced 1.532 mmboed in 2014, a 4 percent rise from 2013.
ConocoPhillips said on Tuesday it expects output to grow 2-3 percent in 2015. It did not specify a growth rate for 2016.
The company, which cut its 2015 capital budget by $2 billion to $11.5 billion in January, said it expects to maintain spending at the new level for the next two years.
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Nigeria To Cut Production

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting: Low Prices Will Hamper Nigeria's Bid To Boost Output Consistently.
Low oil prices will hamper Nigeria's bid to boost output to 4 million barrels per day (bpd), Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke was quoted as saying on Tuesday at an oil and gas conference in the capital Abuja.
"Flexibility in CAPEX and funding in general will be further constrained in the year 2015."
Africa's biggest oil producer has been hit hard by global oil prices that have around halved since June, because it accounts for up to 80 percent of government revenues and about 95 percent of foreign reserves.
Individual companies will get hit hard in the US, but the country will do fine, despite the drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia has huge cash reserve to weather the slump in oil prices. China is loving the cheap oil to fill up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The counties that can least afford it -- west Africa, Venezuela, will be hit very, very hard. 

However, the graphic below is interesting. This shows the amount of oil imported into the US by the various countries, in thousands of barrels per month. Note the significant increase in Nigerian oil imported into the US for the most recent reporting period:


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