New Production Record In The Bakken -- Director's Cut -- February 13, 2015

Some comments regarding data from the Director's Cut:

• not only did production hit a new record, the increase was quite striking -- up 3%
• think about that: when you start getting to high production numbers, each one (1) percent increase translates into a significant amount of actual production measured in bopd
• this new production record was made in one of the colder months of the year in North Dakota
• this new production record was despite record fall in number of active rigs 
• this new production record despite new flaring rules
• this new production record despite operators choking back on production
• this new production record despite record number of wells waiting to be completed (around 750) 
• Note: 1,227,334 bopd / 12,124 wells = 101 bopd/well, at record level of production / well at a time when wells were being choked back 

Some will argue that the production record occurred because with the slump in oil prices, operators are drilling the best Bakken and slowing drilling in other parts of the Bakken. Remember, this data was taken at the end of December. Most of these wells were planned and spudded well before the slump in oil prices. There is a "circling of wagons" but we haven't see it it in the daily permits to the extent that I think most folks would have expected by now.

The record production, I think, can be attributed to:

• incredibly good pool of passionate, dedicated roughnecks with similarly passionate, dedicated first-tier field managers
• better technology in all stages of planning, drilling, completing, but mostly in completion techniques
• better understanding of the Bakken, especially delineation of the sweet spots

Link here.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Oil:

• December, 2014: 1,227,344 bopd (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 1,187,206 bopd (preliminary, new all-time high); 1,188258 (revised)
• delta: 39,086(daily bopd)
• 39,086 / 1,188,258 =  3.3% (last month, November, the increase was only 0.4% -- barely hitting a new record; this month, almost a ten-fold increase in production over previous month)

Producing wells: 

• December, 2014: 12,124 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565
• July, 2014: 11,293
• June, 2014: 11,079  

Permitting:

• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• July, 2014: 265
• June, 2014: 247
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $34.50 (lowest since February, 2009) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• January: $31.41
• December: $40.74
• November: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46
• July, 2014: $86.20

Rig count:

• Today: 137 (lowest since July 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012) 
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192
• June, 2014: 190

Director's comments:

Drilling rig count:

• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to today

Well completions:

• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• no major precipitation events
• only 3 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• only 2 days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:

• 750, a decrease of 25

Flaring:

• decreased to 24%
• Tioga gas plant increased to 76% of full capacity
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed

Gas capture statistics:

• statewide: 76%
• FBIR: 77%