The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/04/14

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Earnings Reports On Tap For Wednesday -- November 4, 2014

According to Yahoo!Finance:
Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS), before market open; 15 cents;
Calfrac Well Services (CFW.TO), before market open; 41 cents;
CenturyPoint Energy (CNP), before market open, 30 cents;
Chesapeake Energy (CHK), before market open, 33 cents;
Denbury (DNR), before market open, 26 cents;
Duke Energy (DUK), 7:00 a.m., $1.52
Enbridge (ENB.TO), before market open, 38 cents;
NRG Energy (NRG), before market open, 52 cents;
Steris (STE), before market open, 63 cents;

CLR, after market close, 81 cents;
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), after market close, 65 cents;
Plains All American (PAA), after market close, 52 cents;
QEP, after market close, 44 cents;
SandRidge Energy (SD), after market close, 5 cents;
Tesla (TSLA), after market close, loss of one penny;

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Do not make any travel plans based on what you read here. Most of my posts are done quickly; there are factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

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Musings

The 2014 Mid-Term Elections

We had out-of-town guests arrive tonight. They will be with us for a week which will put a crimp on my blogging.

I was most disappointed in not catching MSNBC analysis of the election results. I have only seen limited coverage on the internet. The big story is the GOP will control the Senate by two votes. Maybe three votes. Maybe four votes. That's the MSNBC headline story, I suppose.

But I have not seen any mention of the real story. This is the real story. The GOP may have a two vote margin (51 - 49) on paper, but in fact the delta is going to be much, much bigger. Of the 49 in Mr Obama's party, some of them will be up for re-election in 2016. One can assume that very few, if any of them, will want to cast any vote in support of any Obama initiative. Dems running for re-election this past month refused to admit they even voted for President Obama in 2014; you think they are going to vote with him during the next two years? And you know that no GOP senator up for re-election in 2016 is going to step out of line. McConnell will have the easiest job in the world.

Yes, on paper the tally may be 51 - 49 but in reality it's going to be 56 ayes; 3 nays; and 41 "present." The record will show that the vote was 56 - 3.

Oh, the other big story. With a 51 - 49 mix, Mr Biden won't be asked to make any tie-breaking votes.

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Musings

MDU 3Q14 Earnings Call

Based on comments on the message boards, there are a lot of smart folks out there when it comes to energy. I'm not one of them. I'm simply learning as I go along. And trying to get a better understanding of the Bakken.

Based on the MDU transcript, and comments elsewhere, it appears that MDU is "cutting its losses" by selling Fidelity.

They have a lot of growth potential elsewhere; MDU was really starting to look like an E&P company.

MDU made mistakes in E&P /Bakken years ago and never recovered. Compounding this problem, I folks were starting to look at MDU as an E&P company. But it appears MDU doesn't have the expertise, experience, corporate culture, to go head-to-head with guys like Harold Hamm, the previous EOG CEO (Mark Papa), the previous CHK CEO (Aubrey McClendon).

MDU needs to get back to doing what they were doing before they got caught up in the Bakken (had they done that right in the beginning, things might have been different, but they didn't, and now they are cutting their losses [cutting Fidelity] before it becomes an even bigger albatross).

[If the can't find a suitable buyer, and the price of oil recovers, could Fidelity be spun off as a stand-alone company? A wholly-owned subsidiary? An MLP?]

By the way, this may be the start of consolidation in the US tight oil industry. There are just too many players. If there are 100 drillers, they are all drilling like their hair is on fire just to keep investors happy. And we end up with a huge glut.

Get down to 10 drillers and there is more latitude to slow down drilling, and quickly change the supply and demand equation.

These are initial thoughts; subject to change; thoughts/opinions may change as the dust settles. I'm learning as I go along.

Have I ever mentioned this is not an investment site? Well, it isn't. It isn't an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Do not make any travel plans based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go elsewhere for better analysis. This is simply idle chatter (see welcome/disclaimer).

On Track For More Than 3,000 Oil And Gas Permits -- North Dakota -- November 4, 2014

According to my data base (which could be very, very wrong, but I doubt it), with 2,545 permits to date (November 4, 2014) for oil and gas permits in North Dakota (this does not include salt water disposal well permits or other permits), North Dakota is on track to post 3,016 permits this calendar year (2014).

This compares to 2,241 permits issued by November 4, 2013, for calendar year 2013, which put the state on track for 2,656 permits. Actual number of permits by the end of calendar year 2013, for 2013: 2,671 permits.

For 2012: 2,181 permits; on track for 2,585 permits. Actual number of permits by the end of calendar year 2012, for 2012: 2,521 permits with 144 canceled (perhaps more since earlier calculation).

The numbers may vary from post to post; things change. The Bakken is dynamic. These numbers are for my use only coming from my database which is different than the NDIC database. You should assume the data I post has errors, but not intentional. I simply cannot afford to hire a fact-checker. If this information is important to you, go to the source, the NDIC. I think the NDIC has a disclaimer also.

Thirteen (13) New Permits -- North Dakota -- November 4, 2014

Operators: Liberty Resources (4), OXY USA (3), Slawson (3), American Eagle (2), Cornerstone,
Fields: McGregor (Williams), Manning (Dunn), Simon Butte (Dunn), Big Bend (Mountrail), Skjermo (Divide), Colgan (Divide), Foothills (Burke)
Comments:

Three (3) producing wells completed:

27200, 659, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14A-23-2H, Stoneview, t9/14; cum 10K 9/14;
27616, 113, XTO, Hansen 34X-10C, Temple, t9/14; cum --
28528, 649, Whiting, Peterson 41-33XH, Sanish, t9/14; cum 6K 9/14;

Active rigs:

	11/4/2014	11/04/2013	11/04/2012	11/04/2011	11/04/2010
Active Rigs	190	180	188	196	153

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:

26154, 1,842, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HD, Reunion Bay, t9/14; cum 21K 9/14;
27683, drl, Hess, EN-Pederson-LW-154-94-0408H-4, Alkali Creek, no production data,
27844, 1,284, Newfield, Blue Angel 150-99-5-8-4H, Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum 46K 9/14;
27869, drl, CLR, Skar 3-28H, Stoneview, no production data,
28137, 760, WPX, Edward Flies Away 7-8-9HC, Van Hook, 25 stages; 5 million lbs sand, t6/14; cum 52K 9/14;
28147, drl, Hess, BW-R Peterson 149-99-1102H-5, Cherry Creek, no production data,

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26154, see above, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HD, Reunion Bay:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	20762	9590

27844, see above, Newfield, Blue Angel 150-99-5-8-4H, Tobacco Garden:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	12425	16110
8-2014	13772	6178
7-2014	18764	0

28137, see above, WPX, Edward Flies Away 7-8-9HC, Van Hook:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	16162	7103
8-2014	22431	9728
7-2014	13509	2693

Good Advice -- November 4, 2014

Uh-oh. The AP, via Bakken.com, is reporting:

North Dakota officials say a section of U.S. Highway 85 south of Williston is shut down after construction breached a natural gas pipeline in the area.

McKenzie County Emergency Manager Karolin Rockvoy says the breach occurred Monday afternoon. She says authorities established a cordon of more than four miles around the incident site.

The North Dakota Department of Transportation says the leak occurred about four miles south of Williston near the Lewis and Clark Bridge. The state agency recommends motorists find alternate routes to cross the Missouri River.

Rockvoy says the pipeline has been shut down and work is underway to reopen the roadway. She says the road is currently slick from the spill and trucks have been sanding the route.

The best line in that article is in bold (which I added): The state agency recommends motorists find alternate routes to cross the Missouri River.

Hint: there are none -- unless you have a boat. Or a plane.

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Oasis Reports Big Miss; OKE Beats By A Penny -- November 4, 2014

On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had net income of $1.21. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, were 52 cents per share.

The results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 71 cents per share.

Shares are down.

Press release here.

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OKE beats a penny.

ONEOK Partners miss by 24 cents:

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MPO beats by 18 cents.

PXD beats by 10 cents.

DVN energy beats by 11 cents; output jumps 19 percent.

VLO beats by 45 cents;

This was done quickly; there may be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

EOG Reports 3Q14 Earnings -- November 4, 2014

A lot of stuff has been posted very, very quickly. I assume there are errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Do not make any travel plans based on what you read here.

I've been saying / suggesting / wondering whether EOG has backed off the Bakken; their last reported well was back in July, 2014. Since then no EOG wells have been reported. It appears there is more to the story (as there always is). At least at one level, EOG appears to be "studying" the Bakken very, very closely and doing some interesting work. See press release below and data points from the file reports. EOG is a great, great case study in developing a new basin or a new formation.

EOG reports:

http://investor.shareholder.com/eogresources/releaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=880460

From the AP:

On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had profit of $2.01. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, came to $1.31 per share.

The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.28 per share.

From the press release:

In the third quarter, EOG's U.S. crude oil and condensate production increased 29 percent, compared to the same prior year period. Production gains from the South Texas Eagle Ford, North Dakota Bakken and Delaware Basin led EOG's crude oil production growth. Driven by the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, total natural gas liquids (NGLs) production increased 25 percent, and total company natural gas production increased 3 percent, compared to the third quarter 2013. Total company production increased 17 percent.

EOG's Bakken drilling activity for the year has concentrated on its Parshall Core and Antelope Extension acreage. In the Core, EOG continues to test various spacing patterns to determine a development program that maximizes the field's resource potential. While preliminary results from 700-foot spaced wells are encouraging, EOG will continue to analyze production data. EOG is simultaneously testing well patterns of less than 700 feet. In the Antelope Extension area, EOG has pursued development drilling in the Bakken and tested various Three Forks intervals to determine the prospectivity of the formation across its acreage. Additionally, EOG has reduced its overall Bakken drilling costs by integrating self-sourced sand and identifying drilling efficiencies, as well as refining completion techniques in both areas.

In the Core area, the Parshall 44-1004H, 45-1004H and 46-1004H, in which EOG has 69 percent working interest, were turned to production at initial rates of 2,710, 2,005 and 2,105 Bopd with 875, 665 and 860 Mcfd of rich natural gas, respectively. The Parshall 47-2226H, 48-2226H and 49-2226H began production at a cumulative rate of 5,105 Bopd with 2.3 MMcfd of rich natural gas. EOG has 70 percent working interest in these three Core wells.

In the Antelope Extension area, EOG had successful drilling results from the first, second and third Three Forks benches. The first well drilled in the third interval of the Three Forks was the Mandaree 134-05H, in which EOG has 70 percent working interest. It came online at 1,410 Bopd with 2.2 MMcfd of rich natural gas. In the second interval, the Mandaree 135-05H, in which EOG has 69 percent working interest, had an initial rate of 1,620 Bopd with 2.5 MMcfd of rich natural gas. EOG has 42 percent working interest in the Mandaree 17-05H, which began producing at 1,745 Bopd with 2.8 MMcfd of rich natural gas from the first bench. EOG is continuing to test and drill Three Forks wells in all three intervals across its Antelope acreage.

From the file reports:

26769, conf, EOG, Mandaree 134-05H, no production data, geologist's report said Three Forks third bench; application said Three Forks B3;
26777, conf, EOG, Mandaree 135-05H, producing but still confidential; geologist report said "lower section of the Three Forks formation, in the second bench"; application said Three Forks 3rd B.
26779, conf, EOG, Mandaree 17-05H, no production data, application simply said "Bakken"; geologist's report said Three Fork first bench;

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Update, December 5, 2014: my readers were correct; I was wrong. I was really wrong on this on. It turns out this 27-year-old is a liar and a fraud. Here's the correction at Yahoo!Finance. Here's the full story -- at least as much as could be obtained.

Update, November 17, 2014: Yahoo!Finance is now researching information that this 27-year-old millionaire inherited some family money. The 27-year--old is not responding. So far, it sounds like Yahoo!Finance is checking out some "rumors." This is all they have so far:

Since the publication of this story, new details have come to light which have brought Anton Ivanov's claims of becoming a self-made millionaire into question. Ivanov has not responded to requests for comment, but Yahoo Finance is currently investigating allegations that a part of his wealth was, in fact, inherited from his parents. We will be updating this post as we get more information.

I can hardly wait.

Original post in this "note to the granddaughters:

There's a great story over at Yahoo!Finance right now about a 27-year-old who is now a millionaire doing really what many others are doing and many, many others could do if they wanted. His story should not be unique.

I read the story very closely and it seems to be genuine.

The individual's first big "break": joining the US Navy. His only "mistake" (LOL): he waited until he was 20. He could have joined with a parent's signature at age 17.

If you are bright enough to get a college degree, the US military will pick up the entire tab, as noted in the article. The military bends over backwards encouraging folks to get that college degree. This high school graduate was earning a $50,000 annual salary while getting a college degree, which gave him the option in several years to stay in or get out.

In addition to maxing out his Roth IRA, he also had the opportunity to max out his Military Thrift Savings Program which is essentially a 401(k) with a lot more flexibility (for example: one can take out cash from the Thrifts Savings Program at any time but must be paid back to yourself with 8& interest). With all the conflicts worldwide, it is easy even in the Air Force or US Navy to be assigned to areas designated for Combat Pay even if nowhere near "combat" in the classical sense. Combat Pay is tax-free and if I remember correctly can be socked away in another military savings program earning interest, also tax-free (it's been a long time since I did that, so I may have the details wrong). The point is: the military has multiple ways to save money, invest money, and much of it is tax-free.

In addition to one's basic salary, one might qualify for any number of special pays (aside from Combat Pay). My hunch is that military folks being sent to Ebolaland are receiving multiple special pays.

The housing allowance, again tax-free, is particularly remarkable. The pay for the most part has kept up with the "real world" and it is increased for high cost areas like San Diego and Boston. Young, unmarried men and women often share an apartment -- especially if they are in the Navy and out at sea for extended periods of time -- and save much of their housing allowance.

Once you get your college degree, more doors open up: officer rank and increased pay, but also the opportunity to attend graduate school in civilian clothes, on any number of prestigious US university campuses and then return to active duty after four years. You retain all the benefits, including medical coverage. Generally, the four years in civilian status won't build toward 20- or 30-year retirment, but there may be exceptions. Again, it's been a long time, and I've forgotten a lot of the benefits, and most of them have changed (for the better, I suppose).

Another benefit: "choosing" one's state in which to be taxed. Even California has a military exclusion (at least it did when I was in the service): no state income tax if assigned outside the state. Texas and Florida have a huge military population and no state income tax. The goal of many military members is to have at least one assignment in an income-tax free state and establish residence there which is viable for the duration of one's career if one maintains certain "commitments" to the state (such as registering one's car there and voting).

The military is all-volunteer now. There are an incredible number of opportunities and an incredibly number of options.

The most interesting thing about the military is that it shouldn't feel like a "job" or "work." If the first four years is drudgery, perhaps one should separate. But for those who stay in, it is often because it doesn't feel like work. They stay in for other reasons. I never stayed in for the money; it was simply the most rewarding "thing" I thought I could do. For school tuition, etc., I owed the Air Force four years. I had planned to get out at the end of four years, but I found the service so rewarding I stayed for another four years, and then another four years, and before I knew it, a 30-year-plus-one-day career.

There's a funny story why I wanted a military career. It had nothing to do with income. I will save that for later. It has to do with an experience in Naples, Italy, before I was even in college, and years before I was even in the military.

Cherry Creek

A reader alerted me to a big well Cherry Creek earlier today. I realized I did not have a link to "Cherry Creek oil field."

Cherry Creek oil field is a small field, only 12 sections, 3 x 4, in northeast McKenzie County which has seen moderate activity during the boom. It sits in/near one of the sweet spots in the Bakken. The field is "owned" by Hess. It looks like all units are held by production.

From the geologist's narrative, #27885:

Background gases throughout the lateral ranged from 1,000 units to over 3,500 units. There were common gas shows ranging from 5,000 units to over 6,000 units. At roughly 8,000’ VS, the gas trap was removed from the possum belly and placed into a separate possum belly. This new possum belly configuration allowed the gas trap to sit in the drilling fluid which was circulated directly from down-hole and prior to entering the gas buster system. A more accurate and representative recording of gas was achieved from this configuration. Gas levels remained higher with background gas averaging over 2,500 units from 8,000’ VS until TD. The gas buster was utilized throughout the duration of the lateral and flares ranging from 5-10’ were commonly seen. A trip gas flare at 16,015’ MD was observed and reached over 25’ high.

Permits

2015 (none as of July 12, 2015)

2014 (list is complete)
29133, conf, Hess,
29132, conf, Hess,
29131, conf, Hess,
29130, conf, Hess,
29129, conf, Hess,
29128, conf, Hess,
28152, conf, Hess,
28151, conf, Hess,
28148, 543, Hess,BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-5, t11/14; cum 36K 5/15; (choked way back)
28147, 781, Hess, BW-R Peterso-149-99-1102H-5, t11/14; cum 54K 5/15;
28088, conf, Hess,
28087, 807, Hess, BW-Sorenson-149-99-134H-4, t12/14; cum 50K 5/15; choked back
27886, 273, Hess, BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-4, total drilling 15 days; background gases commonly reaching 2,500 units; t1/15; cum 5K 5/15; choked way back
27885, 130, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-4, 1 stage frack, 200K lbs sand, t6/15; cum --

2013
27228, 808, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-2, 35 stages; 2 million lbs sand, t9/14; cum 75K 5/15;
27227, 742, Hess, BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-2, spud May 15, reached TD on May 28; t10/14; cum 73K 5/15;
27226, 1,051, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-3, t9/14; cum 84K 5/15;
27225, 843, Hess, BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-3, t10/14; cum 64K 5/15;
25694, 838, Hess, BW-Erler 149-99-1522H-2, t6/14; cum 83K 5/15;
25693, 913, Hess, BW-Johnson 149-99-1003H-2, t6/14; cum 102K 5/15;
25692, 726, Hess, BW-Erler 149-99-1522H-3, t6/14; cum 73K 5/15;
25691, 955, Hess, BW-Johnson 149-99-1003H-3, t6/14; cum 103K 5/15;
25352, 899, Hess, BW-Spring Creek 149-99-1201H-3, t11/13; cum 122K 5/15;
25351, 1,064, Hess, BW-Spring Creek 149-99-1201H-2, t11/13; cum 122K 5/15;
25226, 883, Hess, BW-Sorenson 149-99-1324H-3, t12/13; cum 111K 5/15;
25225, 814, Hess, BW-Sorenson 149-99-1324H-2, t12/13; cum 107K 5/15;

2012
None

2011
21526, 854, Hess, BW-Erler 149-99-1522H-1, t9/12; cum 148K 5/15;
21477, 793, Hess, Johnson 1-3H, t5/12; cum 189K 5/15;
21297, 609, Hess, BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-1, t2/12; cum 130K 5/15;
21296, 829, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-1, t3/12; cum 173K 5/15;
20302, PNC, Hess, Robert Peterson 11-3H,

WPX Posts A Nice Sanish Well (Three Forks B1) In Antelope Oil Field -- November 4, 2014

A very nice well, and hooked up to a natural gas pipeline:

27728, 1,458, WPX, Ruby 31-30HX, Antelope, Sanish formation; the app says Three Forks B1; 33 stages; 5.2 million lbs sand, t8/14; cum 57K 9/15;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	26667	24565
8-2014	29048	34917
7-2014	554	439

This completes the four-well pad inside the reservation:

23483, 1,471, WPX, Ruby 31-30HW, t1/13, cum 192K 9/14;
23482, 1,503, WPX, Ruby 31-30HW, t8/14, cum 38K 9/14;
23481, 1,399, WPX, Ruby 31-30HA, t8/14, cum 52K 9/14;

It will be interesting to see how WPX fares under a new tribal chief. Not everyone was happy when WPX "bought" 7% of the reservation early in the Bakken boom.

I track the Antelope oil field here.

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Just A Matter Of Time

The other day we asked what the EU would do. The US has discontinued buying sovereign debt; Japan announced a new stimulus package to buy sovereign debt; the question was what the EU would do. Here is the latest:

The European Union cut its already low economic growth forecasts further on Tuesday, indicating the recovery will remain sluggish amid problems for the biggest economies, particularly France and Germany.

The official forecast for growth this year in the 18-country eurozone was cut to 0.8 percent from a prediction of 1.2 percent made in the spring. Indicating little good was expected next year too, it reduced the 2015 prediction from 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent.

"The situation in the euro area remains extremely fragile," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Unemployment in the currency union was forecast to decrease at a painfully slow rate — after 11.6 percent this year, it is expected to dip to 11.3 percent next year and 10.8 percent in 2016. [Is 11.6 to 11.3 either statistically significant or even reproducible? Hardly.]

It's just a matter of time.

Regular readers know what's coming next.

It's Just a Matter of Time, Randy Travis

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A Note For The Granddaughters

Women Have The Last Word -- Literally

From Rediscovering Homer, Andrew Dalby, c. 2004, in which the author attempts to identify the "real Homer" -- not the oral poet (or poets) but rather the individual who actually wrote down the Iliad and the Odyssey.

An important element in the mystery involved looking closely at the language in which the original were written.

We have to look between the "language of men" and its obvious corollary, the "language of women," within a single community.

The best-recorded example was on the Caribbean island of Dominica, where, in the seventeenth century, men's and women's languages were entirely different in vocabulary though identical in structure. This had happened because men from the South American mainland (who spoke an Arawakan language) had invaded the island one hundred years earlier. They had drivenoff the Dominican men and settled with the women and children (who spoke Island-Carib).

Then followed a period of several generations during which each sex had its own language and both sexes were bilingual. Eventually it was the men's language that disappeared.

I assume there was a period of marital bliss in that short "in-between" era. LOL.

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~~Global Warming~~

~~Climate Change~~

~~Extreme Weather~~

Ice Age Now

Arctic Sea age extends to greatest extent since 2001, despite rising CO2. To 401 ppm. I suppose.

Great Way To Start The Day -- SRE Beat Forecasts -- November 4, 2014

Huge beat:

The San Diego-based company said it had net income of $1.39 per share.

The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.23 per share.

I"ll be back later.

Active rigs:

	11/4/2014	11/04/2013	11/04/2012	11/04/2011	11/04/2010
Active Rigs	187	180	188	196	153

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Another CBR terminal reaches 1000-unit-train milestone. The Dickinson Press has a rare upbeat Bakken story:

Bakken Oil Express, the rail terminal just southwest of Dickinson, recently shipped its 1,000th train unit mark, the company announced Monday.

That means roughly 70 million barrels of crude oil have moved from the terminal in its 3 years of operations.

The facility is capable of loading up to three unit trains a day, and can store 642,000 barrels of oil. A new storage tank set to be online in mid-2015 will increase its storage capacity to 892,000 barrels.

COLT, near Epping, ND, announced this same mile a few days ago.

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RBN Energy: 7th in a series, Eagle Ford infrastructure -- the port, terminals, facilities at Corpus Christi.

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Tuesday, November 4, 2014