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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Great Article Over At Rigzone On Enhanced Oil Recovery -- Propsects For CO2-Based EOG -- October 29, 2014

Updates

October 31, 2014: 3rd in the series -- the prospects for thermal enhanced oil recovery (EOR), highlighting the opportunities for using heat to improve oil recovery in regions that have not traditionally used the technique
Within the Canadian oil sands, thermal EOR techniques are used when reserves are too deep to mine.
Thermal processes overtook mining as the dominant production method in 2012, and with around 80 percent of the remaining oil sands reserves in Alberta more than 200 meters (650 feet) below the surface and thus deemed too deep to mine, EOR techniques will play an increasingly dominant role in the oil sands market over next ten years.
Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is the leading technology, used at 75 percent of currently operational projects, with cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) used at most other locations. The thermal oil sands market is about to experience a period of rapid expansion as a wave of new projects come online in 2015 and 2016. However, the increased production that this creates may lead to transportation and refinery bottlenecks. Moreover, slowing Chinese investment, at the behest of the Canadian federal government, along with the potential for lower oil prices could also restrain the market, with projects likely to be delayed or cancelled.
Nonetheless, with more than 160 projects under construction, approved or announced, the thermal oil sands market will see fairly substantial production growth even if just a fraction of these projects are completed.
October 30, 2014: 2nd in the series -- can chemical EOR take off?
In terms of current spending and production figures, chemical EOR will remain the smallest segment of the EOR market for the immediate future. Yet the potential for chemical EOR development is vast in terms of both size and regional scope. Chemical EOR already surpasses both thermal and gas EOR methods in terms of the number of countries with active projects (14), while double-digit spending growth is anticipated over the next five years as pilot projects are set up and expanded. As such, chemical EOR is set to emerge from the shadow of its rival EOR methods to become an important technology on the global scale.
Original Post
 
This is a fairly long article for Rigzone, providing background and prospects for CO2-based EOR. I wold love to place this as a permanent link on the sidebar at the right, but my hunch is that this article will require a subscription or password in the not-too-distant future.

The most interesting takeaway: the shale (tight) oil revolution is an under-discussed threat to CO2 EOR prospects.
The table at the linked article shows the 15 largest CO2 EOR producers in North America ranked alongside the 15 largest spenders in the shale oil market in 2014; the table shows there is significant overlap with companies involved in both endeavors.
Shale oil development has lower start-up costs and quicker returns than CO2 EOR projects. Consequently, investors and company executives are likely to prioritize their shale oil asset development at this present time. Occidental – by far the largest CO2 EOR company in terms of production with 30 percent of the U.S. total – plans to keep CO2 EOR production in the Permian Basin flat through 2016 while increasing production from its shale oil assets in the region, according to the company's most recent presentation.
The second most interesting takeaway: "growth prospects for US CO2 EOR are overstated."
Although a CO2 EOR pure play company such as Denbury Resources could achieve 10-percent per year production growth (in a best case scenario), the market as a whole is unlikely to grow at this rate in the medium term. The optimistic forecasts for CO2 EOR production have tended to focus on the availability of new CO2 sources and pipelines, without paying enough attention to the plans of CO2 EOR producers and outside factors influencing the market. 
The other major points:
  •  prospects for CO2 EOR are more favorable in China, Brazil, and the Middle East
  • CO2 EOR not economical in the North Sea (at least in the near term and at current oil prices)
Long postings -- especially those done in the midnight hour while watching "Lost In Translation" -- may contain factual and/or typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the linked article. 

First Things First -- Yes, President Obama Has Selected The Capitol Christmas Tree -- October 29, 2014

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. If any of this is important to you, go to the linked source. I'm only doing this for myself to help me better understand the Bakken and to put the Bakken in perspective. And it gives me something to do when I'm not with the granddaughters.

On tap for later today (Thursday, October 30, 2014), earnings that interest me:
  • CARBO Ceramics (CRR), 7:00 a.m. ET; 75 cents; beats by 8 cents; shares fall.
  • Cardinal Health (CAH), before market open, 96 cents; beats by 4 cents; shares flat.
  • COP, before market open, $1.20; beats by 10 - 12 cents; shares flat.
  • EPD, before market open, 37 cents; in-line; misses on revs; shares down a bit.
  • Greenbrier (GBX), before market open, $1.03; beats, in-line; shares down a bit.
  • Kellogg (K), before market open, 92 cents; beats by 2 cents; sales down (again); shares up
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV), before market open, $1.53; beats by 7 cents; shares fall;
  • Tallgrass Energy Partners (TEP), after market close, 9 cents; misses by 5 cents; shares down more than 16%;
  • Tesoro (TSO), after market close, $2.16;
This, from Yahoo!Finance; occasionally something changes.

The list has nothing to do with my personal investments. Of the list above, I've only ever invested in three of the companies listed, and have held shares in two of those companies for more than 30 years. I bought shares in the third company by mistake, and it turned out to be one of my best holdings, and I will now hold it forever. I have no plans to buy or sell any shares in any of the companies listed above.

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Is Pinocchio's Nose Getting Longer?

This will be the top story in today's (Thursday) WSJ. The headline and the lede: "Fed Closes Chapter on Easy Money":
The Federal Reserve said it would end its long-running bond-purchase program, concluding a historic experiment that stirred disagreement among policy makers, economists, and investors about its impact even though the central bank said it helped accomplish its goal of reducing unemployment.
Really? $1.6 trillion in easy money and ... unemployment went from 7.8% to 6.0% or thereabouts (and about 25% among those whose sons like Trayvon). [The "7.8%" figure is their number, not mine. I would have guessed much higher.]

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Yes, Virginia, There Will Be A Holiday Tree In DC This Year

Earlier today, rhetorically and tongue-in-cheek, I asked whether the president had decided on the Capitol Christmas Tree yet. There were so many things on his to-do list put together by The New York Times. It turns out that, yes, the Capitol Christmas (aka Holiday) Tree has been selected. CapitolChristmasTree is reporting:
The Chippewa National Forest, in partnership with the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe and Choose Outdoors, invites the public to the 2014 U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree cutting ceremony Oct. 29. The event begins at 12 p.m. with a welcome from Chippewa National Forest Supervisor Darla Lenz; remarks by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar and U.S. Representative Richard Nolan; and a traditional blessing ceremony by Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe members. Minnesota Logger of the Year Jim Scheff will have the honor of cutting the tree, which will then be carefully lowered onto a 100-foot truck and trailer.
Well, at least some decisions are still being made. 

Bakken Economy Update, The Williston Wire; 70% Of California Physicians Do Not Participate In ObamaCare; 70% Is A Failing Grade; 360 Million Americans, Maybe 4 Million Signed Up For ObamaCare -- October 29, 2014

"They didn't build the following businesses" according to Hillary, but the following were noted by the Williston Wire:

New owners celebrate grand opening of Walt's Market. This is a big story for me. It is just down the street from where my dad lives on University Avenue. It's claim to fame: some of the best beef in state of North Dakota in the US.  When I was younger, I remember my dad stopping at Walt's Market to pick up some of the best beef in town. I'm glad to see it's going to be re-invented.

"They didn't build it" but Sherwin-Williams is opening a new store in Williston. It's a 5,800-square-foot facility at 2112 4th Avenue West.

"They won't build it" but Culver's will celebrate a ground breaking on November 10, 2014, which will be located just west of Buffalo Wild Wings. The address: 401 Reiger Driver. Culver's is a Wisconsin-based restaurant recognized for its homemade butterburgers and fresh frozen custard. I wonder if Hillary will take credit for the cooking?

"They didn't build it," but Sanford will donate $1 million to Watford City's new medical center.

In this case, I think he really did build it -- an Arkansas man converts a yellow-school bus to a BBQ truck in Ray.

Fifteen cultural economics students from Denmark spent three weeks studying and touring North Dakota, driving on roads provided by the government.

Wow, it's amazing how much "they didn't build."

How does one spell cockamamie?

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$100 oil?

I'm not really in the mood to do much with this article. I will note just one or two data points. Bloomberg is posting:
Global consumption will grow to 99 million barrels a day in 2019 from 92.8 million this year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. While the U.S. is producing the most oil since 1985 as it taps shale-rock formations and OPEC production grew at the fastest rate in 13 months in September, future demand will require supply from areas with high costs, such as the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico or the Arctic.

Prices may rebound well before 2020. Brent, the global benchmark, will climb to as much as $100 a barrel next year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Standard Chartered and Barclays Plc. 
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here but this is another once-in-a-lifetime investing opportunity from my point of view. That and a $1.00 will get you a small drink at McDonald's.


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Hess Will Stick With $6 Billion Stampede Project In The Gulf

Rigzone is reporting:
U.S. independent oil company Hess Corp. said on Tuesday it would proceed with the development of the $6 billion Stampede project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, one of the biggest energy investments announced during the current oil price slump.
Hess, the operator of the deepwater project, has a 25 percent stake in Stampede. A unit of Chevron Corp, Norway's Statoil and Nexen Petroleum Offshore will also each hold a 25 percent stake.
Hess said first production from the project is expected in 2018.
Total estimated recoverable resources for Stampede, located about 115 miles south of Fourchon, Louisiana, are estimated in the range of 300 million to 350 million barrels of oil equivalent. Gross processing capacity for the Stampede project is some 80,000 barrels of oil per day.
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This Ship Has Sailed
At a time when the Obama administration is lurching from crisis to crisis — a new Cold War in Europe, a brutal Islamic caliphate in the Middle East and a deadly epidemic in West Africa, to name just the most obvious ones — it is not surprising that long-term strategy would take a back seat. But it raises inevitable questions about the ability of the president and his hard-pressed national security team to manage and somehow get ahead of the daily onslaught of events.
The biggest problem it seems is this: the problems keep piling up because no one makes a decision. With regard to protecting the military, the US Army couldn't wait for any decision from the commander-in-chief. The US Army, unilaterally, set its own policy on Ebola: quarantining 100% of the troops returning from west Africa. They even picked the location for quarantine. I assume other agencies will make their own ad hoc decisions in lieu of directions from the Oval Office.

Heartaches by the number, troubles by the score, every day you love me less, each day I love you more :

Ray Price, Heartaches By The Number

I wonder if they've picked out the Christmas tree yet?

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ObamaCare

I love this. I have opined from the beginning that the ObamaCare numbers were inflated. The official numbers are in the 8 million range; many observers suggest a more realistic number is closer to 4 million. I've opined that it may be around 2 million that are actually happy they enrolled demonstrated by the fact that they: a) are paying their premiums on time; and, b) will re-enroll.

It turns out I may not be far off. IBD via Yahoo!Finance is reporting:
The Obama administration's tally of 7.3 million paid enrollees in ObamaCare exchange plans as of mid-August increasingly looks like an artificial peak that hasn't been sustained.
The most telling data point since the Department of Health and Human Services announced exchange membership last month comes from California, where the 1.4 million sign-ups as of mid-April have dwindled to just over 1.1 million paying customers — a drop of 20.3%.
That decline is on the same scale as in Florida, where insurer rate filings in June showed 763,000 exchange plan members, down 22.5% from the 984,000 sign-ups reported by HHS.
And it looks like consumers are not the only ones dropping out/opting out. CNS News is reporting:
Over 214,000 doctors won't participate in the new plans under the Affordable Care Act (ACA,) analysis of a new survey by Medical Group Management Association shows.
That number of 214,524, estimated by American Action Forum, is through May 2014, but appears to be growing due to plans that force doctors to take on burdensome costs. It's also about a quarter of the total number of 893,851 active professional physicians reported by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
In January, an estimated 70% of California's physicians were not participating in Covered California plans.
We had the same problem with Tricare when I was in the military. Initially, providers and health care insurers were eager to compete for military healthcare contracts, but when they saw the 5-inch thick contracts with incomprehensible legalese and unreachable goals, most quickly dropped out. It was miserable for the first three or four years of Tricare for the Department of Defense to find physicians and health insurers who would sign on. 

I honestly did not think there would be this much difficulty finding physicians for ObamaCare, and had 20% opted out, I would not have been surprised. But I would have been surprised had the number gotten to 35%. I am astounded that 70% of California physicians have opted out. Remember, this is the most liberal state in the union, now.

By the way, most of ObamaCare has not yet kicked in. Most of ObamaCare was delayed or waived by executive order and won't kick in until 2015 or 2016 or later. That's why we don't hear much about ObamaCare any more and why those who want to see it repealed haven't said much about it. It will simply die on the vine. Insurers will cherry pick; investors will do very, very well; but it won't change things much for those who did not win life's lottery as Hillary would say.

By the way, one has to ask the next question: who are the 3 out of 10 physicians in California who have elected to participate in ObamaCare? My hunch is they are the physicians, who for whatever reason, are having trouble maintaining a practice for lack of patients. In the early early days of Tricare it seemed the military was not able to sign up the best and the brightest. The best and the brightest are not short of patients. 

Thirteen (13) New Permits; Eleven (11) Producing Wells Completed; Five (5) "High IP" Wells -- October 29, 2014

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:
  • 23272, 808, CLR, Caretan 1-28H, St Demetrium, t8/14; cum 12K 8/14;
  • 26717, 1,452, Emerald Oil, Pirate 4-2-11H, Foreman Butte, t5/14; 40K 8/14;
Eleven (11) producing wells completed:
  • 26326, 879, XTO, Boomer Federal 34X-35G, Lost Bridge, t9/14; cum --
  • 26861, 2,207, XTO, Ruby State Federal 34X-36F, Grinnell, t8/14; cum 9K 8/14;
  • 26874, 1,130, CLR, Lawrence 11-24H1, Three Forks, first bench, North Tioga, t10/14; cum --
  • 27018, 2,721, Whiting, Gajewski 31-18H, Lonesome, t4/14; cum --
  • 27308, 2,253, BR, Lillibridge 21-27MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum --
  • 27368, 2,253, Petro-Hunt, Brenna 152-96-24C-13-1HS, Clear Creek, no frack data yet; gas max almost 3,000 units, 4 units, t10/14; cum --
  • 27407, 2,179, KOG, Koala 4-4-31-13H, Poe, 4 sections, t9/14; cum --
  • 27578, 1,296, BR, Sequoia 31-4TFH, Hawkeye, t9/14; cum --
  • 27911, 453, Slawson, Bootleg 5-14-15TFH, Stockyard Creek, t9/14; cum --
  • 28419, 671, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-3H, Elk, t10/14; cum --
  • 28420, 868, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-4H, Elk, t10/14; cum --
Thirteen (13) new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (7), HRC (3), EOG (2), Petro-Sentinel,
  • Fields: Crazy Man Creek (Williams), Parshall (Mountrail) McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Coyote Creek (Bowman)
  • Comments: the Petro-Sentinel permit is the third one for this company in North Dakota, and the second one in as many days
Active rigs:


10/29/201410/29/201310/29/201210/29/201110/29/2010
Active Rigs190182183200152

Hess, 3Q14 Earnings -- October 29, 2014

From Reuters via Yahoo!News:
Production in North Dakota, the second-largest oil producing state in the United States, jumped 21 percent to 86,000 boe/d.
Hess opened 59 Bakken wells in the third quarter, but still managed to slash production costs by 8 percent to $7.2 million per well, bucking an industry trend to increase spending per North Dakota well in an attempt to boost output.
Last month Continental Resources Inc, North Dakota's largest oil producer, said it would boost spending per well to $10 million as it uses much more sand, or proppant, to hydraulically fracture rock and extract oil, and combines several new fracking techniques.
Hess said it is comfortable with its current spending and believes its techniques are the best way to produce the most oil.
"We've tried some of these more expensive completion designs, but thus far none have proven to be economically superior to our methodology," Greg Hill, the Hess president, told investors.
Waiting for the transcript.

The Road To New England ... And The Southwest -- October 29, 2014

Don sent me the link to this Bloomberg story:
U.S. electricity markets face years of higher prices as clean-air regulations shut more coal-fired power plants than earlier forecast, cutting supply and forcing producers to rely more on natural gas.
Standard & Poor’s estimates that 40 to 75 gigawatts (75,000 megawatts) of coal units may be shut by 2020, compared with announced permanent shutdowns of 27 gigawatts. About 18 percent of the closures expected through the end of next year will be replaced by natural gas.
The loss of the cheaper coal units will boost power prices by as much as 25 percent on grids that serve about a third of the nation’s population, according to the Brattle Group, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based consulting company. The biggest impact may be in the Midwest and Northeast, where demand for gas for heating jumps during the cold-weather months.
“We are really in for a wild ride for five to six years because of the amount of coal shutting down in such a short amount of time and the transformation toward more gas being used to generate electricity,” Philip Moeller, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in Washington, said in an Oct. 23 interview.
“Prices will definitely rise. The question is how much.”
Midcontinent Independent System Operator Inc., or MISO, which manages the electricity network that runs from Manitoba to Louisiana, expects its power reserves to fall short of targets by about 2,000 megawatts by 2016, with deficits mounting after that.
Even with the shale boom that’s cut gas prices, power generated with the fuel costs $30 to $35 a megawatt-hour, compared with about $25 for coal.  
There is much more at the article; highly recommend reading. There is some editing of the post above. In a long post, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this issue is important to you go to the source. In addition, this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here.

Upon reading that Bloomberg article linked above, I replied to Don:
Good morning, I'm back.
Great article on coal and cost.
One certainly gets the feeling that we both lived long enough to experience another tectonic change in the energy story. We both lived through the OPEC embargo and the decades where OPEC pretty much controlled our energy destiny. Peak Oil seemed to be the overriding concern.
Had there been no energy revolution in North America, US consumers may have faced a double whammy: a) OPEC in control of oil prices; and, b) Algore warmists taking away the one resource Americans had in great amounts: coal.
But the North American energy revolution changed everything.
Everything suggests that we are now experiencing a huge transition, actually two huge transitions. The US is transitioning from a dependence on OPEC to independence with regard to oil. The second transition is from coal to natural gas.
The North American/OPEC oil transition, to some extent, transcends politics.
The transition from coal to natural gas is all about politics. This could change with a new president in 2017.
For the academician, this will be very, very interesting to watch as it plays out over the next 20 years, the political war on coal in the US vs the reality of coal/energy on a global scale.
For the investor, huge opportunities.
I think investors might have the best of both worlds. The fact is that coal is not going to go away, and for those with a very long horizon, investing in coal could eventually pay off.
In the short term, investors in natural gas may be sitting in the catbird seat, as they say.
First, politically, in the US, natural gas will take market share from coal. Second, realistically, there is no alternative (anywhere in the world) to coal and natural gas. Nuclear energy is dead, and even if it rose from the dead today, it would take ten years to get new plants on-line.
Renewables (wind and solar) will always have a niche but the numbers will never work for renewables to make much more than a dent in total energy production. Hydro-electric is regional, and I believe hydro-electricity is maxed out anyway.
After reading Unreal City: Las Vegas, Black Mesa, and The Fate of the West, by Judith Nies, c. 2014 , I am convinced the "canary in the coal mine" (pun intended) will be in the southwest, specifically Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. These cities continue to grow; they are highly dependent on electricity to get water to their cities; and the US is in the process of shutting down the largest coal-generating power plant in the US. It will be interesting to watch. It will take awhile (a decade) to get a better idea how this plays out.
However, we may get an idea much sooner by watching how things play out in another region of the country, New England. The northeast has turned out to natural gas; prices spiked last winter, and it certainly looks to get worse before it gets better.
For investors, it seems pipelines may offer an incredible opportunity. I haven't been posting them but for the past week or so, but the list of companies increasing dividends has been quite long, and most of the companies listed are MLPs in pipelines.
The pipeline companies are in a win-win situation. If the environmentalists shut down increased pipeline capacity, the companies a) raise their rates on transportation (simple supply and demand); and, b) save on CAPEX that they won't be spending on building out huge pipelines. TransCanada has done very well even though they have not been able to complete the Keystone. It will be very interesting to watch New England over the next few years. Likewise, southern California, Las Vegas, and Phoenix are also the places to watch.
More that was not in the note:

It appears that pipeline investing is all about market share. Just like the railroads, pipeline companies have a huge moat protecting them: very unlikely that any huge new pipeline companies will appear overnight -- except as spin-offs from larger companies, but still part of the umbrella. Berkshire Hathaway, ONEOK, Enbridge, KinderMorgan, and ETP all come to mind. It also appears that the regulatory agencies are less averse to mergers and acquisitions in the pipeline sector. 

Busy, Busy, Busy Day -- October 29, 2014

I've posted the results of the wells that come off confidential list today.

Hess is having a big day; more on that later. Phillips 66 doubled its profits.

There is every possibility that for the next few days, until I get it out of my system, I will post a lot of snarky comments about all the businesses that are being created by the US government in the Bakken, at least according to Hillary. Bear with me. This, too, will pass.

I will also continue to link stories from Ice Age Now, Real Science, Climate Depot, and other sites that support alternative views to Algore on global warming, or whatever he's calling it now.

I have no idea where the Ebola story will lead, but I posted my true feelings about the epidemic some weeks ago. From my perspective, none of the major political leaders in the news have made any missteps in dealing with the issue from where they stand. But I will continue to mix it up; sarcasm with non-sarcasm. Like Sheldon on "Big Bang Theory," a lot of readers do not recognize sarcasm. That makes it all the more fun, again, as noted by the laugh track on "Big Bang Theory" when Sheldon misses the sarcasm.

I am always serious when I write about the Bakken; everything else (non-Bakken) is fair game for comment and commentary. In addition, I am always serious with my "Notes to the Granddaughters."

In a few minutes I will be off the net for awhile. I will be looking for a television with Rachel Ray (10:00 a.m. CDT, I believe). Our granddaughter's school class -- 6th grade -- should be featured on the show.

It's going to be a busy, busy, busy day but I got the most important stuff posted. Good luck to all.

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Notes To The Granddaughters

In this morning's episode of Rachel Ray, ABC, there was a very short segment on Tugg. Our older granddaughter is involved in a community project to rescue abandoned dogs and cats. As part of the project, they invited Tugg to visit them; that visit was recorded on Rachel Ray. Our older granddaughter is seen briefly in two or three shots in the following video. I can't explain the "clicking" sound in the video. I was using a very expensive Canon camera. My wife was using her new iPhone 6 to record this, and her video came out better than mine. Just saying.

Tugg, Rachel Ray, ABC

Cow Creek

It looks like it is time to look at Cow Creek. I will do that later. Here are the Cow Creek wells that will come off confidential list today, October 29, 2014:
  • 24909, 2,090, Oasis, Kaleb 5501 12-1B, Cow Creek, t7/14; cum 18K 8/14;
  • 25764, drl, Oasis, Hannah Kaydence 5501 12-1T, Cow Creek, producing,
  • 27113, 658, Oasis, Hagen Banks 5298 42-31 3T, Banks, t7/14; cum 32K 8/14;
  • 27245, 1,505, Oasis, Tufto 5501 11-13 3T, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 24K 8/14;
  • 27246, 2,237, Oasis, Tufto 5501 11-13 2B, Cow Creek, t5/14; cum 37K 8/14;
  • 27250, 398, Oasis, Tufto 5501 13-13 4T, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 26K 8/14;
  • 27251, 1,013, Oasis, Tufto 5501 13-13 6T, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 24K 8/14;
Cow Creek is a small field, 4 x 4 sections = 16 sections, directly north of Williston, At the moment, the south line of Cow Creek is at the northernmost edge of Williston.

Stockyard Creek -- October 29, 2014

I sure get a kick out of "little" Stockyard Creek just east of Williston -- the little engine that could. Yesterday, KOG reports two "high IP" wells in that field:
  • 26424, 2,189, KOG, P Manning 154-99-2-2-11-14H, Stockyard Creek, t9/14; cum -- 
  • 26422, 2,144, KOG, P Manning 154-99-2-2-11-15, Stockyard Creek, t9/14; cum --
And it seems there is at least one new permit for Stockyard Creek at every week.

It's not updated, but I follow the Stockyard Creek field here.