What Some Of Us Will Be Talking About Wednesday; ISIL Moving Closer To Baghdad -- October 7, 2014

The Wall Street Journal

Turks warn that Syrian border city of Kobani likely to fall to ISIL, and pressed the US to do more. Of course the Turks haven't been particularly helpful.

And worse: Anbar Province, a crucial buffer zone between ISIL and Baghdad is at risk of falling. President Obama sticking to his guns: no boots on the ground. Let them eat pide.

Previously reported: Wal-Mart to end heath coverage for part-time workers; cite ObamaCare; cite 30-hour rule.

Number of job openings hit 13-year high. The number of job openings across the US reached a 13-year high in August, a sign this year's strong job growth could stretch into the fall.

Isn't this interesting....California drought producing tastier wine grapes. I can't make this stuff up.

More than ever, West Virginia leans right. West Virginia next month appears likely to elect its first Republican to the US Senate in 55 years; the GOP could also win a majority in the state House of Delegates.

Leon Panetta's memoir came out Tuesday; says president is learning from his "missteps."

Spain rushes to halt Ebola threat; can't explain how nurse contracted Ebola. By the way, I forget where I saw it, perhaps The Los Angeles Times, but according to the op-ed, if there is one death from Ebola in Latin America there will be a mass migration of humanity north to the US.

EU removes another obstacle to importing Canadian sands oil.

Posted elsewhere, earlier: California "importing" North Dakota crude.

Posted elsewhere, earlier: CBR looms big for Canadian Pacific.

Posted elsewhere, earlier: Samsung struggles to halt sharp slide in profits.

Some Striking Fracking Fotos Of The Bakken -- October 7, 2014

The link came via Bakken.com.

The photos: http://www.weather.com/news/science/striking-photos-fracking-bakken-north-dakota-20141007. As soon as I saw the "scarred landscape," I didn't bother reading the story but the photos are excellent. I'm not sure why "fracking" was in the "headline" except to draw "internet hits." These are simply "oil development" picture. I don' think I saw one photo that was of "fracking" per se. But I could be wrong; I didn't spend much time at the site.

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Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather
Problems in Paradise

The Washington Post is reporting:

Florida has gone 3,270 days without a hurricane – nearly nine years and, by far, the longest stretch on record (the next longest streak is 5 seasons from 1980-1984, in records dating back to 1851). Meanwhile, the Sunshine state’s population and development have boomed.

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There were a flurry of snowstorms articles this past week on global warming.

1. The National Geographic reports that "2 degrees" is the wrong metric to follow. It doesn't look like tracking sea level is very good, either.

 

2. The (London) Express: the public is growing increasing skeptical. No extreme weather and there has been no warming for 18 years. Even the oceans aren't rising. "Hey, dude, where's the heat?" The Chinese are building one coal-powered plant every week or so. The Chinese did not attend the recent UN summit.

Hey, Dude, Theme Song
3. Wind energy has "reached its limit." -- The (London) Express.

4. The walrus is the new polar bear. -- The (London) Express.

Only 1% Of California's Oil Supply Moves By Rail; California Has No Crude Oil Pipelines Coming Into The State -- What's Wrong With This Picture? -- October 7, 2014

The Wall Street Journal has two interesting stories, both on crude-by-rail, and both published today.

The first:

About a third of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.'s expected revenue gains through 2018 will be driven by crude oil shipments aided by improvements at oil-loading terminals and track (CBR) in western Canada, the company’s chief operating officer said on Tuesday.

Last week, Canadian Pacific unveiled a series of aggressive financial targets, including a doubling of earnings per share by 2018 from this year, and revenue of 10 billion Canadian dollars (US$9 billion), from a projected C$6.6 billion this year.

The company’s bet on oil-by-rail (CBR) underscores the growing interdependence between North America’s oil and rail industries. The amount of crude moving by rail in Canada has quadrupled since 2012 and is expected to continue to surge.

The second:

For the past decade, the U.S. shale boom has mostly passed by California, forcing oil refiners in the state to import expensive crude.

Now that’s changing as energy companies overcome opposition to forge ahead with rail depots that will get oil from North Dakota’s Bakken Shale.

Thanks in large measure to hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. has reduced oil imports from countries such as Iraq and Russia by 30% over the last decade.

Yet in California, the use of imports has shot up by a third to account for more than half the state’s oil supply.

“California refineries arguably have the most expensive crude slate in North America,” says David Hackett, president of energy consulting firm Stillwater Associates.

Part of the problem is that no major oil pipelines run across the Rocky Mountains connecting the state to fracking wells in the rest of the country. And building pipelines is a lengthy, expensive process.

Railroads are transporting a rising tide of low-price shale oil from North Dakota and elsewhere to the East and Gulf coasts, helping to keep a lid on prices for gasoline and other refined products. Yet while California has enough track to carry in crude, the state doesn’t have enough terminals to unload the oil from tanker cars and transfer it to refineries on site or by pipeline or truck.

Just 500,000 barrels of oil a month, or 1% of California’s supply, moves by rail to the state today. New oil-train terminals by 2016 could draw that much in a day, if company proposals are successful. Bakken oil since April has been about $15 a barrel cheaper than crude from Alaska and abroad, according to commodities-pricing service Platts. That would cover the $12 a barrel that it costs to ship North Dakota crude to California by rail, according to research firm Argus.

California: only 1% of California's crude oil supply moves by rail; there are no crude oil pipelines running into the state; and, Alaskan supplies are dwindling.

At the end of the day, adult leadership will be needed. If not, California is in a world of hurt.

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Cameras

I wrote this yesterday:

Folks looking to buy a new camera might want to take a look at Canon's PowerShot SX50 HS -- if you can find them. They are being discontinued, and prices are coming down significantly.  The camera was introduced in 2012, and may simply be one of the best Canon cameras for the buck, especially now that the price has come down significantly.

There may be many, many reasons for this camera to be discontinued, but the biggest reason might be the newer cameras "have" more megapixels. The SX50 has "only" 12 megapixels. The new Canons have 18 megapixels which are recommended if printing pictures bigger than 18 x 24. The largest I have ever done are 8 x 10's and I'm doing a lot more of those now with the granddaughters swimming and playing soccer.

I wrote that because after looking for a new camera for the past six years or so, I finally broke down and bought the Canon PowerShot SX50HS ... and love it.

Earlier today, without going into specifics, I was reading the October issue of Consumer Reports. CR reviewed digital cameras, giving the Canon GX1 the highest rating it had ever given a digital camera:

The November (sic) 2014 Consumer Reports says the Canon PowerShot G1X Mark II "not only outscored all of the other cameras in its category for image quality and video, it also outscored all of the SLR cameras in our Ratings."

The specs for the SX50 are almost identical to the G1X Mark II. Twelve (12) megapixels vs 13 megapixels is almost inconsequential/trivial.

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Global Warming

IceAgeNow is reporting:

The Daily News reported that an all-time (114-year) record was broken on September 13, 2014, when the thermometer dipped to 31 degrees F.

The low of 31 degrees not only was a new record for the day, but a new record for the first frost of the fall.

It also means this year’s growing season — at 134 days — is the third shortest on record in this bread basket of the U.S.. The shortest was 114 days in 1901, followed by 133 days in 1912.

Previously, the earliest fall frost in 117 years of record keeping at the Kansas State University Agricultural Research Center was Sept. 17, recorded twice in 1901 and again two years later in 1903.

That means this year’s first frost broke the previous 114-year-old record by five days.

This is just "weather," not climate.

How To Stop Mining In The US -- October 7, 2014

This is perhaps one of the most incredible stories I've ever read. I may go back and re-read Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged.

DNR is looking to continue mining an old mine. The process to get the required permits has taken six years so far.

The story takes place in Minnesota.

In all, 21 permits are required and yet to be issued.

Before the permitting agencies could proceed, an environmental impact statement was needed and the public was allowed to comment. They received 54,000 comments:

In all, Landwehr said the agency received about 58,000 comments. Among those, there were about 8,000 unique subjects or thoughts, he said, that regulators must respond to.

The DNR, U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are reviewing, categorizing and analyzing the comments to determine how best to respond to the issues and concerns raised.

To process these comments and work the permits:

The DNR and Pollution Control Agency are sharing an extra $1 million annually, as of July 1, to hire six to eight new staff members who will help process permit applications and permit renewals from the mining industry.

So, where do "they" stand?

“We’ve got 45 people working on it, counting the consultants,” Landwehr said, adding that PolyMet has made several changes to its proposal to address several of the comments made. The changes aren’t enough to require anther a round of public input, Landwehr said, but are “definite improvements’’ to the proposal.

If and when the environmental review is deemed adequate, PolyMet hopes to apply for state and federal permits — an estimated 21 are needed — to begin construction and mining. The company also must secure long-term financing from creditors to build out the mine.

Good news, bad news: They have a date, sort of, maybe six months from now they might have the environmental impact statement complete. Right.

Those 45 consultants? Lots of two-martini lunches.

3/5 Bakken Wells To DRL Status; Back Up to 192 Rigs -- Compares Nicely With The Boom Years (2010 - 2012) -- October 7, 2014

Active rigs:

	10/7/2014	10/07/2013	10/07/2012	10/07/2011	10/07/2010
Active Rigs	192	182	190	194	153

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:

• 26746, 840, OXY USA, Emil Veverka 4-17-20H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t4/14; cum 46K 8/14;
• 26981, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson-152-95-3328H-8, Hawkeye, no production data,
• 27631, 90, Denbury, CHSU 41-35SHR 15, Cedar Hills, a Red River B well, t6/14; cum 8K 8/14;
• 27679, drl, XTO, Thompson Federal 41X-17-TF2, Charlson, no production data,
• 27813, drl, Statoil, Maston 34-27 3TFH, Banks, no production data,
• 27871, A, CLR, Daniel 3-33H1, Stoneview, TF1, no IP provided; 30 stages; 5.8 million lbs sand; producing,

Twenty (20) new permits --

• Operators: Statoil (3), Slawson (9), WPX (2), SM Energy (2), Oasis (2), Enduro, Berenergy,
• Fields: Banks (Mckenzie), Big Bend (Mountrail), Van Hook (Mountrail), Newburg (Bottineau), Chatfield (Bottineau), Musta (Divide), Foothills (Burke)
• Comments: I think this is the first permit I've seen in Chatfield oil field. I just checked; it's the second -- the first was a Ballard but I remember it as a wildcat in that area; so it was a Ballard that opened this new field; one can find the list of wells/permits in the various oil fields at this link;

Four (4) producing wells completed:

• 23889, 1,372, Slawson, MacCougar 5-30-19TFH, Big Bend, t9/14; cum --
• 27061, 2,088, BR, Denali 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum --
• 27073, 1,042, BR, Denali 11-4TFH,  Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum --
• 27753, 1,848, BR, CCU Olympian 44-35MBH, Corral Creek, t9/14; cum --

Biggest Global Energy Story Of The Day? EU Says Canadian Sands Oil No Worse Than Coal; Clears The Way For Canadian Oil Exports -- October 7,2014

Some dots starting to connect:

• President Obama kills the Keystone XL
• Kuwait buys into Canadian shale play (Duvernay)
• EU says Canadian sands oil no "dirtier" than coal

Opens the door to exports. Reuters is reporting:

A European Union plan to label tar sands oil as highly polluting in its fight against climate change has been abandoned after years of opposition led by major producer Canada.

A proposal published by the European Commission on Tuesday removes an obstacle to Canada exporting tar sands crude to Europe and comes at a time when tensions between the EU and top oil supplier Russia are running high. 

EU sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the desire for a trade deal with Canada had been a factor given the situation with Moscow.

So many story lines here, I won't even start. 

All politics?

Now we learn the two (2) degree temperature limit was "a political goal," so says the "father" of the warmists. Not even science; all politics. The link is to the New York Times.

Now, back to Europe. I think Europe is in more trouble than folks realize. There was talk that Germany would fall back into a recession -- that was a couple of weeks ago -- now the IMF forecasts EU growth to be even less than originally forecast.

I follow the "big stories" here. One of the big stories is Europe: Europe may become the only continent that requires imported energy to survive:

European Energy became a big story on May 18, 2013, when the EU Council President predicted that  Europe might become the only continent in the world to depend on imported energy.

May happen sooner than we thought.

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Out Of Stock

This was all over Michael Savage show today -- folks calling in to say his book was out of stock. I checked. Yes, Amazon.com is out of stock of Michael Savage's most recent book, Stop The Coming Civil War: My Savage Truth.

However, there is another book available -- 

Dreams of My Father for as little as one cent. One penny. One hundred copies for a buck. Enough for three middle school classrooms for a dollar. And he's still in office.

Collectible copies less than $10:

Profiles in Courage? The least expensive is still 5x the least expensive Dreams of My Father.

Montana Williston Basin Bakken Completions -- October 7, 2014

The Fairfield Sun Times is reporting:

In Richland County:

• Continental Resources, Rognas-Barbara HSU, a Bakken Formation well, 20,011, IP of 546 bopd.

Roosevelt County, two Bakken Formation completions were reported.

• Statoil, Snyder 1-12 1H, 15,699 feet, 1,024 bopd.
• Continental Resources, Gehringer 1-13H, 20,170 feet, IP of 471 bopd.

ObamaCare Working The Way It Was Supposed To? The 30-Hour Rule -- October 7, 2014

Huffington Post is reporting:

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plans to eliminate health insurance coverage for some of its part-time U.S. employees in a move aimed at controlling rising health care costs of the nation's largest private employer.

Starting Jan. 1, Wal-Mart told The Associated Press that it will no longer offer health insurance to employees who work less than an average of 30 hours a week.

The move, which would affect 30,000 employees, follows similar decisions by Target, Home Depot and others to eliminate health insurance benefits for part-time employees.

Wellborn says the company will use a third-party organization to help part-time workers find insurance alternatives: "We are trying to balance the needs of (workers) as well as the costs of (workers) as well as the cost to Wal-Mart."

The announcement comes after Wal-Mart said far more U.S. employees and their families are enrolling in its health care plans than it had expected following rollout of the Affordable Care Act. Wal-Mart, which employs about 1.4 million full- and part-time U.S. workers, says about 1.2 million Wal-Mart workers and family members combined now participate in its health care plan.

That has had an impact on Wal-Mart's bottom line. Wal-Mart now expects the impact of higher health care costs to be about $500 million for the current fiscal year, or about $170 million higher than the original estimate of about $330 million that it gave in February.

This blog talked about the "30-hour" from the beginning.  Folks will now need two jobs to reach 40 hour+/week and neither employer will provide health care coverage. And restaurants are now adding a surcharge to cover ObamaCare expenses. Thank you, Mr Obama. 

And most of ObamaCare is yet to kick in. There's a reason the GOP is letting this debacle play out.

Another Taxpayer Bailout For The Millennials? Unrelated -- Another Huge Layoff At HP -- 55,000 And Rising -- October 7, 2014

Posted earlier, but it's a big story that I was unaware of.

Motorola and Bristol-Myers Squibb cast off billions in pension burdens. So, how do they do it?

Motorola Solutions Inc. and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. are the latest companies to cast off billions in pension burdens, fueling a trend that could weaken the government’s ability to protect the payouts other employers have promised millions of retired workers.

The two companies recently disclosed separate deals that will shift a combined $4.5 billion in pension obligations to insurer Prudential Financial Inc., PRU -0.66% which will take over paying benefits to 38,000 retirees. The deals are good for the two companies’ balance sheets.

What’s more, joining the dozens of companies that have shed their pension plans lets Motorola and Bristol-Myers stop paying millions in yearly fees to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the government pension insurer. The problem: the growing number of these pension dropouts threatens the agency’s resources for insuring the plans of those that remain in the system.

“This has identified a fundamental flaw with the pension system,” said Brad Belt, a former executive director of the PBGC. “Inevitably, there’s going to be a taxpayer bailout [of the PBGC] in the future.”

There's a lot of information in that linked article.

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Another Huge Layoff At HP

Business Insider is reporting:

As HP cleaves itself in two, the company will also trim another 5,000 employees from its payroll.

And even that won't be the end of a massive multiyear layoff that grows bigger every few months, HP CEO Meg Whitman essentially told CNBC's Dan Farber on Monday.

HP first announced its layoffs plans in 2012. Back then, HP said it would cut 27,000. By June of this year, it had doubled the target, to 50,000, with 36,000 employees already gone.

On Monday, it bumped up the new layoff target, yet again, to 55,000.

Even so, HP remains an enormous employer, with over 330,000 employees worldwide, and that means that when HP reorganizes itself, it will likely make even more cuts.

55,000 and rising.

Five Feet High and Rising, Johnny Cash

Fire Sale? Apple Could Take Possession Of Sapphire Ovens -- October 7, 2014

Active rigs:

	10/7/2014	10/07/2013	10/07/2012	10/07/2011	10/07/2010
Active Rigs	192	182	190	194	153

RBN Energy: update on the widened Panama Canal. Will come on-line about same time US LNG exports begin, 2015 - 2016 time frame.

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The Wall Street Journal

Hard to believe this would be the top story in The WSJ: Supreme Court passes on gay marriage. Did anyone expect differently?

GT Advanced, the sapphire screen maker that has experienced delays in building a plant in Arizona to service Apple, has filed for bankruptcy protection. Apple could take possession of the ovens. It's an interesting story -- it all started Apple calling in a loan?

Apple vs Samsung? Samsung profits plunge on weak smartphone sales. Third-quarter operating profit may have halved from a year earlier.

Motorola and Bristol-Myers Squibb cast off billions in pension burdens. So, how do they do it?

Motorola Solutions Inc. MSI -0.89% and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. are the latest companies to cast off billions in pension burdens, fueling a trend that could weaken the government’s ability to protect the payouts other employers have promised millions of retired workers.

The two companies recently disclosed separate deals that will shift a combined $4.5 billion in pension obligations to insurer Prudential Financial Inc., PRU -0.66% which will take over paying benefits to 38,000 retirees. The deals are good for the two companies’ balance sheets.

What’s more, joining the dozens of companies that have shed their pension plans lets Motorola and Bristol-Myers stop paying millions in yearly fees to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the government pension insurer. The problem: the growing number of these pension dropouts threatens the agency’s resources for insuring the plans of those that remain in the system.

“This has identified a fundamental flaw with the pension system,” said Brad Belt, a former executive director of the PBGC. “Inevitably, there’s going to be a taxpayer bailout [of the PBGC] in the future.”

More expensive coffee? Coffee beans soar to 2 1/2 year high. Dry weather i Brazil to blame.

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For Philadelphia school teachers, a lesson in new math and ObamaCare:

In a surprise move Monday, the commission that governs the financially troubled Philadelphia public-school system canceled the teachers union contract and decided educators must contribute to their health insurance for the first time to free up money for classrooms.

“We can’t say to students, ‘We would like to give you millions of dollars to improve schools, but the PFT won’t let its members pay for some of its health insurance,’” School Reform Commission Chairman Bill Green said, referring to the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers.

Like this is the end of the story. Stay tuned.

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ISIS continues to advance. The question in Washington: is President Obama's heart in this war? Probably not. [Update: shortly after posting that, I see Panetta has said the same thing -- Obama has given up.]

We may not have (many) boots on the ground yet, but now we have Apache helicopters fighting ISIS. Mission creep.

Nobel Prize in Physics goes to Japanese and American scientists who invented those LED lights. Seems a bit of a letdown from what Einstein was doing back in the early 20th century.

Not good: Germany's factory order dropped. And then the usual surprise -- ""German manufacturing slumped unexpectedly in August, in the latest sign that growth in Europe's industrial powerhouse is sputtering. Merkel's energy policy front and center.

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The Los Angeles Times

Some scientists fear Ebola could spread more easily than generally assumed. And again, back to OPEN BORDERS/OPEN ARMS.

Syrian border town about to fall to Islamic State, Turkish leader says. If that's in the written intelligence report, hopefully President Obama is reading it today.

Police in Ferguson can't forbid protestors to stand still, judge rules. 

But most important: "the one 'Twin Peaks' question that must be answered." Something tells me this won't become "must-see."

Twin Peaks Theme, Angelo Badalamenti