Random Look At Oasis Activity Just North Of Williston; Lower Tyler Formation 100 Feet Thick

There's a lot of activity just north of Williston. Oasis crews must be stumbling over each other just to get to their rigs.

This is less than one mile north of the current northern edge of Williston:

Those are three Oasis rigs, one each on three different pads. The pad to the west is a 3-well pad; the middle pad is a three-well pad, and the pad to the east is a two-well pad.

Of these, one well has been completed; a well on the far west pad:

• 22414, 2,448, Oasis, Tufto 13-24H, Cow Creek, t5/13; cum 77K 1/14; 

This is a middle Bakken well, but note this from the well report:

The Tyler formation was located at 7,585 feet MD... the upper Tyler was ... the second portion of the Tyler consisted of black carbonaceous, dense shale starting at 7,700 feet MD and lasted for roughly 100 feet to 7,800 feet MD as it transitioned into a gray limey mudstone. Gas in this area rose to 84 units and oil shows revealed a dull yellow gold streaming cut and pale yellow fluorescence. Gamma averaged 133 API with a max of 453 API. NOTE: due to the oil cuts and quality of the sahle this area may warrant further study. [Caps and italics were those of the geologist's.]

Kind of exciting, huh?

But there's more.

Look at #14723. This well is a re-entry Madison well. This well, originally named the Zinke & Trumbo Kermit #1-13H, was a Madison well first drilled in 1997 and then re-entered and a new lateral drilled in the 2003 time frame. According to the well file at that time of re-entry:

"The Zinke & Trumbo Kermit #1-13H is an effort to further develop the Nesson reservoir at Cow Creek Field. Plan called for a long lateral leg to be drilled into an undrilled quarter section that is interpreted to contain a thicker, more porous reservoir in a structurally advantageous position. The plan was to re-enter the exisiting Kermit #1-13H horizontal well bore and sidetrack it up dip to the north.

The original well, drilled as a "grass root" horizontal well, was drilled by Chesapeake Energy in 1997 and has produced approximately 74,000 bbls of oil from the Mississippian Nesson porosity. It is still producing approximately 25 bopd (before re-entry)."

The well now, to date:

• 14723, 279, Oasis, Kermit 1-13H, Madison (re-entry), 165K 1/14; producing around 700 bbls per month. It will be interesting to see the production from this well after seven Bakken/Three Forks wells are fracked in the same section. It is possible the well will be taken off-line when the Bakken wells are being fracked.

So, this section:

• Madison proved
• Tyler needs to be re-evaluated
• middle Bakken and Three Forks being targeted now
• middle Bakken proven with high IP on first middle Bakken well in this section

I didn't look at the Lodgepole, but Oasis is known to be interested in evaluating the Lodgepole north of Williston (at least it has been). 

Disclaimer: I have no formal training in any of this. There may be typographical errors and there may be interpretive errors. This is for my own use but folks are free to read it at their leisure if they stumble upon it. Do not make any life-changing decisions based on anything you read at this blog or think you have read at this blog.

$75 Oil -- A Three-Page Article In Barron's

When you get to the linked article, do a word search for "China" in the article. You won't find it. In case the link is broken, it has to do with a front page story at Barron's suggesting $75-oil sometime in the next five years. [If the link is broken, google: "The long-term outlook for global oil prices is lower" Barron's.]

I did not do a word search for India. My hunch: that country is not mentioned either.

I lost interest in the article as soon as I came across this statement: "For the first time in its 150-year history, the internal combustion engine can be run efficiently on alternative fuels from a number of sources, including natural gas. As these alternatives are increasingly introduced, global consumption of oil will slow its growth and flatten out." Really?

First of all, I'm not convinced an internal combustion engine can be run as efficiently [as gasoline] on alternative fuels from a number of sources. When you do the math, be sure to include infrastructure development. [Close parsing of the sentence: the author did not say natural gas was as efficient in an internal combustion engine as gasoline, but he certainly leads the reader to assume that. It's a cute debating trick they teach at Harvard.]

Second, I'm not even sure natural gas will be a major source of fuel for internal combustion engines in the time frame discussed in this article.

But the headline will get folks to buy the weekly. Perhaps. Or stop their subscription.

[Saudi won't sell oil for $75. Canadian oil sands can make money at $75 but it's close. Operators in the Bakken can make money at $75/bbl but they won't find investors to finance their operations; the margins will be too close. Anyone following the oil industry knows that oil companies are having more and more challenges replacing reserves. There was a story along that line with regard to XOM, and Statoil is definitely having problems with finding new oil reserves.]

The comments to this article at Barron's are pretty much evenly divided, but those suggesting this article is lame, dreamy, seem to have the facts on their side.

But, let's say the author is correct: oil goes to $75 over the next few years. So much for "Peak Oil" theory.

More importantly: this reminds folks why it's important to remain diversified when investing. If oil does indeed go to $75 because of supply/demand issues (and not because of a global depression/severe recession) equities (the stock market) should take off. Seventy-five dollar oil would be huge for the American economy. 

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A Note to the Granddaughters

I just watched "Breakfast at Tiffany's" on Blu-Ray. I don't recall ever seeing it before; it came out in 1961.

Immediately after watching it, these were my notes to my wife:

I just finished watching "Breakfast At Tiffany's" on Blu-Ray, $7.50, Target.

I had a $5.00 gift card so it cost $2.50.

Movies have really gotten better over the decades. This was an important movie to see (I don't recall having seen it before; it came out in 1961 when I was ten years old and certainly would not have been a movie I would have sought out).

It was incredibly corny, stereotypically insensitive (Asian stereotype). Not much of a plot. It's amazing, however, how much a song can do to carry the movie, "Moon River."

I am way too sentimental. LOL. A side of me you seldom see, I suppose. It's hard to believe Truman Capote could write this, though I understand the movie is only loosely based on his book and he was upset with the movie. Maybe I will have to read the book. "The Great Gatsby" reads a lot better now that I've seen the movie. And I still owe you one, to read "The Prince of Tides."

Saturday Morning Musings

Disclaimer: long posts generally have typographical errors. This post has been spell-checked only once. I assume there are spelling and grammatical errors. These are my opinions only. This is for my use only. If you happen to come across this post you are free to read it and cut/paste at your heart's content. But don't make any investment decisions or life-changing decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

For an equities investor in the oil and gas sector, this may have been one of the more interesting weeks in some time.

I have been blogging daily on the Bakken since 2007. The current "milliondollarway" blog has been on-line since 2009.

I recall, in the early days, how enthusiastic I was about the Bakken. Much of that enthusiasm -- okay, ALL of that enthusiasm -- was based on almost no knowledge of the oil and gas industry, and certainly NO knowledge of the Bakken. But with the help of readers, Teegue's discussion group, and, the Bakken Blog, I have learned a lot. If I had to identify "the one thing" that got me most interested in doing a blog was another blog's subject line: "What in the world has Anschutz found?", back on September 17, 2009.

Over the years, my original intentions to talk only about the Bakken have evolved.

The first realization: I could not talk about the Bakken without following "the stock market." Folks can do a lot of talking but when their money is on the line, it speaks volumes. Over time, that fact evolved: I realize, now, how much all of this has helped me be a better investor in general, not just in the oil and gas sector. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This is not an investment site, but I have learned a lot.

The second evolution had to do with digressions on non-Bakken subjects, notably ObamaCare and global warming. Initially, I did this because these were "hot button" issues for me, but I've noticed two things. First, blogging only about the Bakken, regardless how exciting it might be, gets boring for me after awhile (and probably for the reader also) and blogging about "hot button" issues keeps me on edge, something that helps when blogging 24/7. (Caffeinated coffee all helps. Memo to self: insert a big "thank you" to Starbucks here.)

The second thing I've noticed is that ObamaCare and global warming put the Bakken into perspective.

My attitude, comments, feelings, etc., on both ObamaCare and global warming have also evolved over the years.

That was prologue. I said earlier: "I have been blogging daily on the Bakken since 2007. The current "milliondollarway" blog has been on-line since 2009. I recall the early days, how enthusiastic I was about the Bakken. Much of that enthusiasm -- okay, ALL of that enthusiasm -- was based on almost no knowledge of the oil and gas industry, and certainly NO knowledge of the Bakken."

I do not recall any week since 2009 that has been more exciting for me, as an investor in the oil and gas industry, than this past week.

First and foremost: some months ago, an analyst said this has been the longest stretch of high-priced oil the US has ever seen. He did not define "high-price" but I assume he means over $90. Oil has spiked much higher over the years, but on a continuous basis, this is the longest period of time it has remained at a high level. I think six months ago Joe Kernen, one of the few intelligent anchors on CNBC, opined almost daily that if oil was "fairly" priced it would be $60/bbl. For six months, we've heard how oil would drift back to $80, if not $60. And come Monday, it may plummet. Or next month. Or next year.

But right now, it is what it is. When WTI hit $98, I thought we were in an "under-$100" trading range, and was very, very surprised to see oil go over $101 this week. For all practical purposes, WTI, May, 2014, futures closed Friday at $102.

I do not think it is due to geo-politics. I did not post the story, and I may not have the link any more, but this past week a Forbes columnist, speaking about the bull market, said that everything that is "known" is priced into the market. The Crimean is a "known." We don't know how it will play out, but the Crimean is a known, which pretty much means Putin/Obama/Crimean/Ukraine/NATO/Russia is baked into the price of oil. The Forbes columnist says what is not known is NOT baked into the price oil.

So, if that's true, what is driving oil over $100? It's not the weakness of the dollar. The dollar rose slightly or remained flat, during the rise in the price of oil, so it's not the weakness of the dollar driving the price of oil.

I can go through a laundry list of likely reasons (which I recently did) but I'll cut to the chase. I think it has to do with the drawdown at Cushing. The Keystone XL 2.0 South is draining Cushing; Keystone XL 2.0 North which was meant to replenish Cushing is not on-line, and probably never will be. Bakken oil should be replenishing Cushing via railroad and existing pipelines, but operators are getting better returns shipping Bakken oil to the east coast and the west coast.

********************************

The second thing that made this an unusual week: the accumulating data that is coming out of the daily activity reports. As of March 30 for this year and the previous two years, this many permits have been issued, and this is how many permits were projected at that time:

• 2014: 668 -- 2,740 (rounds to 2700)
• 2013: 619 -- 2,539 (rounds to 2500)
• 2012: 520 -- 2,132 (rounds to 2100)

In addition, more and more multi-well pads, all of which bring down cost/well.

Likewise, the monthly dockets have been incredible. I pretty much thought the dockets were going to be winding down a bit after a couple of dockets earlier this year, but today's docket told me how wrong I was. The frosting on the cake that was this week in the Bakken: the April, 2014, NDIC hearing dockets. And the candle on the frosting on the cake to this week: case 22272.

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This past week was also a huge week for geo-politics. I assume most of the TV chatter is on western Europe, the Ukraine, the Crimean. The sleeper is Brazil with a worsening drought and corresponding drop in hydroelectric power. Their oil industry is facing some serious headwinds. But Brazil is a bit more long-term, and not quite as important to the oil and gas industry as its neighbor, Venezuela. The tea leaves suggest Venezuela is about ready to implode. If it does, it could take its oil economy with it, turning Venezuela into the Libya of the western Hemisphere: unreliable oil exports.

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There are more and more stories coming out in the mainstream media how relatively inexpensive US energy is going to transform global economics. We've talked about that before. What's new is this: refineries are producing at well less than their capacity, and gasoline and diesel fuel exports are surging. That caught me off guard; I've only seen one analyst talk about that which means not many know about it, or many analysts want to keep it a secret. Bakken oil is not the preferred oil for Texas coast refineries. Bakken oil tends to track Brent oil at least to some degree. There are three headwinds affecting adequate oil reaching the Texas coastal bend: a) Cushing reserves are being drawn down without significant refill upstream; b) the recent Houston Ship Channel closure (albeit transient); and, a potential loss of Venezuelan oil.

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One last thing: the US driving season has yet to begin, and Californians are now paying more than $4.50/gallon for gasoline.

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It was a very exciting week. The big question: what was President Obama's real reason for visiting Saudi Arabia this week. Sure the "Syrian thing" is made worse by events in the Ukraine but one wonders if President Obama is more concerned about California politics than a Syrian civil war. Californians are now paying, as noted above, $4.50/gallon of gasoline, industries are moving out of state (mostly to Texas), and ObamaCare is taking its toll. Any interruption in Saudi oil production would be a huge pill for Californians to swallow.

This Is The Cat's Meow: Royalties Within Reach: A Handbook For Mineral Rights Owners

I own no mineral rights.

I did not order this book and I did not pay for it.

I heard about it from the author some months ago, and sight unseen, I posted a link for readers if they wanted to buy a copy.

I have now downloaded a copy that the author sent me. I am completely blown away. First impressions: this is an incredible book.

I have just gone through the April, 2014, NDIC hearing dockets, and managing your own mineral rights is clearly not something for the uninformed. Anyone who "has one well" in the Bakken will have four wells for sure before it's over, probably eight, maybe 12, and possibly as many as 32. Or more.

Anyone with one well needs professional help. And before one starts working with a professional, I would highly recommend knowing what to ask, what to look for. This handbook may be the best out there. I would not know. I don't review mineral owners' handbooks, but this looks like the real deal.

I will post several times throughout the weekend on this book.

Again, I have no hidden agenda; I have no financial relationship with the author. I have never met him/her (to the best of my knowledge; I have spoken with landmen in the Bakken, and did not collect business cards, and my memory is such I would not remember with whom I spoke).

Early on when I posted the link to this book, someone was concerned that the author's name was not provided. I addressed that. I hope the author does not identify himself.

This is from the book, from the author:

I’ve worked as a landman in the Williston Basin for more than seven years. I have daily interaction with mineral owners like you and understand your concerns and questions. I decided to write this book as a platform to educate mineral owners on how to be their own advocate.

Oil companies frequently make mistakes when calculating royalties. Many of these
companies are short-staffed and often operate wells in which dozens, and in some
cases hundreds, of individuals are owed royalties from a single producing well.

This book is one-of-a-kind; you won’t find a similar resource on Amazon.com. In fact, if
you do a google search for “mineral rights,” nearly every hit is a website for a company
seeking to purchase mineral rights from uninformed owners. Purchasing this book is an
important first step in ensuring you have the knowledge and resources to understand
and protect your rights.

Be your own advocate. Maximize the minerals you are fortunate to own!

I will be writing more on this handbook as I go through it; I only downloaded it earlier this morning.

Again, I have no hidden agenda. I have no direct financial interests in the Bakken, and the only reason I qualify that statement with "direct" is because I accumulate shares in publicly traded companies that operate in the Bakken.

The link to the book is at the sidebar at the right.

This is an eBook. It is the first non-iBook eBook that I have ever downloaded. I have never downloaded an eBook from Amazon.com. It is incredibly easy. It downloaded in a few seconds; I don't know how long it took because I was doing something else on the blog while it was downloading.

I can't recall for sure, but I think the author says he/she will be offering this book in print edition, also.

This Might Take Some Time -- Yes, It's All About The Bakken -- A 1,000 More Slawson Wells? Case 22272; Order 24606 -- April, 2014

Updates

June 21, 2014: a reader sent the NDIC order for this case. Order 24606. 
 

Original Post

From the NDIC hearing dockets, April, 2014:

Case No. 22272:

Application of Slawson Exploration Co., Inc. for an order authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of multiple horizontal wells, in Big Bend-Bakken on (everything in bold is my estimate -- not from the NDIC)

• the following 320-acre spacing unit: the W/2 of Section 10, T.151N., R.92W.; one unit, 4 wells

• the following 640-acre spacing units: the SESE, Lots 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, plus those portions of the bed of the Missouri River and the accretions to Lots 5, 6, 8, and 9 lying within the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation in Section 11, and the S/2 S/2 and Lots 5, 6, 7, and 8 of Section 12, T.152N., R.93W.; Section 31; the S/2 of Sections 34 and 35, T.152N., R.92W.; Section 22, T.152N., R.91W.; and Section 35, T.151N., R.92W.; about 8 units x 4 wells = 32 wells

• the following 960-acre spacing units: Section 13 and the S/2 S/2 and Lots 5, 6, 7, and 8 of Section 12, T.152N., R.92W.; and Section 18 and the SE/4, SESW, and Lots 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 of Section 7, T.152N., R.91W.; 3 units x 6 wells = 18 wells


• the following 1280-acre spacing units: Sections 13 and 24; Sections 14 and 23; Sections 25 and 36; and Sections 26 and 35, T.152N., R.93W.; Sections 13 and 14; Sections 14 and 15; Sections 18 and 19; Sections 20 and 29; Sections 21 and 28; Sections 22 and 27; Sections 23 and 26; Sections 24 and 25; Sections 29 and 30; and Sections 30 and 31, T.152N., R.92W.; Section 33, T.152N., R.92W. and Section 4, T.151N., R.92W.; Sections 8 and 17; Sections 9 and 16; Sections 19 and 30; Sections 20 and 29; Sections 21 and 28; and Sections 27 and 34, T.152N., R.91W.; Section 33, T.152N., R.91W. and Section 4, T.151N., R.91W.; Section 32, T.152N., R.91W. and Section 5, T.151N., R.91W.; Sections 1 and 12, T.151N., R.93W.; Sections 2 and 3; Sections 6 and 7; Sections 8 and 17; Sections 9 and 16; Sections 13 and 14; Sections 19 and 20; Sections 20 and 21; Sections 21 and 22; Sections 23 and 24; Sections 26 and 35; Sections 27 and 34; Sections 28 and 33; and Sections 29 and 32, T.151N., R.92W.; Section 36, T.151N., R.92W. and Section 31, T.151N., R.91W.; Sections 2 and 3, T.151N., R.91W.; about 40 units x 8 wells = 320 wells

• the following 1600-acre spacing units: Sections 16 and 17, and the E/2 of Section 18, T.152N.,R.92W.; Sections 11 and 12, and the E/2 of Section 10, T.151N., R.92W.; and Section 25 and the E/2 of Section 26, T.151N., R.92W. and Section 30, T.151N., R.91W.; 3 units x 8 wells = 24 wells


• the following 1920-acre spacing units: Sections 27 and 28 and the N/2 of Sections 33 and 34, T.152N., R.92W.; Sections 3 and 4, T.151N., R.92W. and the S/2 of Sections 33 and 34, T.152N., R.92W.; 3 units x 8 wells = 24 wells


• the following 2560-are spacing units: Sections 13, 14, 23, and 24, T.152N., R.93W.; Sections 13 and 24 T.152N., R.93W. and Sections 18 and 19, T.152N., R.92W.; Sections 25 and 36, T.152N., R.93W. and Sections 30 and 31, T.152N., R.92W.; Sections 15, 16, 21, and 22; Sections 17, 18, 19, and 20; Sections 20, 21, 28, and 29; Sections 22, 23, 26, and 27; Sections 23, 24, 25, and 26, T.152N., R.92W.; Sections 34 and 35, T.152N., R.92W. and Sections 2 and 3, T.151N., R.92W.; Sections 24 and 25, T.152N., R.92W. and Sections 19 and 30, T.152N., R.91W.; Sections 31 and 32, T.152N., R.92W. and Sections 5 and 6, T.151N., R.92W.; Sections 32 and 33, T.152N., R.92W. and Sections 4 and 5, T.151N., R.92W.; Sections 8, 9, 16, and 17; Sections 19, 20, 29, and 30; Sections 20, 21, 28, and 29; Sections 21, 22, 27, and 28, T.152N., R.91W.; Sections 32 and 33, T.152N., R.91W. and Sections 4 and 5, T.151N., R.91W.; Sections 33 and 34, T.152N., R.91W. and Sections 3 and 4, T.151N., R.91W.; Sections 1 and 12, T.151N., R.93W. and Sections 6 and 7, T.151N., R.92W.; Sections 2, 3, 10, and 11; Sections 7, 8, 17, and 18; Sections 9, 10, 15, and 16; Sections 13, 14,and Sections 28, 29, 32, and 33, T.151N., R.92W.; about 18 units x 12 wells = 216 wells


• the following 3200-acre spacing units:Sections 11, 12, 13, and 14, and the E/2 of Sections 10 and 15, T.151N., R.92W.; and Sections 25 and 36 and the E/2 of Sections 26 and 35, T.151N., R.92W., and Sections 30 and 31, T.151N., R.91W. 3 units x 16 wells = 48 wells

Total: 686 wells, give or take 200 wells. 

700 wells x $8 million = $5,600 million which, I think, is $5.6 billion. 

SM Energy Interested In The Tyler

From the April, 2014, NDIC hearing dockets:

• 22086, SM Energy, Grassy Butte 21X-21F well be be completed in and produce from the Tyler Pool as an exception to the ...

Hunt Is Getting Busy In The Bakken

From the April, 2014, hearing dockets:

• 22262, Hunt, Zahl-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 15 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22263, Hunt, Green Lake-Bakken, 7 wells on each of three existing 1280-acre units, Williams 
• 22264, Hunt, Sioux Trial-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 13 existing 1280-acre units, Divide
• 22265, Hunt, Smoky Butte-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 6 existing 1280-acre units, Divide
• 22266, Hunt, Alexandria-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units, Divide
• 22267, Hunt, Musta-Bakken, 7 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Divide
• 22268, Hunt, Bluffton-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 2 existing 1280-acre units, Divide
• 22269, Hunt, Frazier-Bakken, 7 wells on each of of 5 existing 1280-acre units, Divide

7*15 = 105
7*3 = 21
7*13 = 91
7*6 = 42
7*12 = 84
7*1 = 7
7*2 = 14
7*5 = 35

Total: 399

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.  

Crescent Point Is Getting Active In The Bakken; Eight Wells In One Section

From the April, 2014, dockets:

• 22225, Crescent Point, Alkabo-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Divide
• 22226, Crescent Point, Wildrose-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Divide
• 22227, Crescent Point, Blue Ridge-Bakken, 8 wells on each of 2 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22228, Crescent Point, Ellisville-Bakken, 8 wells on each of 5 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22229, Crescent Point, Dublin-Bakken, 8 wells each of 2 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22230, Crescent Point, Church-Bakken, 8 wells an existing 1280-acre unit, Williams
• 22231, Crescent Point, Little Muddy-Bakken, 8 wells on each of 5 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22232, Crescent Point, Winner-Bakken, 8 wells on each of 8 existing 1280-acre units, Williams
• 22233, Crescent Point, New Home-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Williams

8 + 8 + 16 + 40 +16 + 8 + 40 + 64 + 8 = 26 x 8 = 208 wells

Forgot one:

• 22234, Crescent Point, Wheelock-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, Williams,

208 + 8 = 216 wells

Week 13: March 23, 2014 -- March 29, 2014

April NDIC hearing dockets
Posted

Operations
Random graphic of KOG's area of interest in the Truax oil field
Oasis and the Lodgepole north of Williston
CLR's Atlanta pad has been updated;
Random update of Triangle USA Petroleum permits in North Dakota
CLR's Jersey pad: 29 wells in Alkali Creek
Twenty-four new permits in one day
Rockin' and rollin': look at the number of active rigs in North Dakota
Another huge BR Archer well; and another one; update on Reef Oil & Gas
Halcon sets drilling records in North Dakota
Bakken likely benefitting from Houston Ship Channel closure
Six permits in Grail oil field canceled
MRO to accelerate rig activity in the Bakken

Bakken economy
Williams County: fastest growing county in the entire United States
The Williston Wire
Local oil tank manufacturing company bought by international firm
In per capita income, North Dakota is second, only behind Connecticut
$11 million for McKenzie County / Watford City high school

For investors only
CLR trading at a new high
Divorce may weaken Harold Hamm's hold on CLR

Bakken In Bold At Bloomberg

Obama, Saudi, and the Bakken:

The U.S. may still need Saudi Arabia’s oil in the long term if its domestic shale oil boom peters out, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. U.S. oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020. The IEA estimates 2,500 new wells a year are needed to sustain output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale. 

I really get a kick out of this. "Everyone" focuses" on the "red queen." Take the flip side of that coin.  The "red queen" guarantees work for thousands of roughnecks, truckers, and regulators for decades. Sure, it would be nice if it only took one well to drain the Bakken but it ain't gonna happen. That's why they have a depletion allowance -- something that existed well before the Bakken.

2,500 wells/year at $10 million/well (just for drilling) = about $25 billion / year being pumped into the Bakken for drilling. I think UND says every dollar in North Dakota circulates through four hands in any given year. I could be way wrong on that. But dollars do circulate.

Random Graphic Of KOG Area Of Interest In Truax Oil Field

In the April NDIC hearing dockets:

Case 22125: Application of Kodiak Oil & Gas (USA) Inc. for an order amending the applicable orders for the Truax-Bakken Pool to authorize up to twenty horizontal wells to be drilled on three 1280-acre spacing units described as Sections 26 and 35; Sections 27 and 34; Sections 28 and 33, T.154N., R.98W., Williams County, ND, and for such other relief as may be appropriate.

The three spacing units are outlined in red:

Note also the new locations in section 23 just to the north of the rectangle:

 

I believe these are all the P Wood wells. 

When I first started blogging, I think we were told that it would take about 20,000 wells to drill out the Bakken. At that time, I did the math, and I came up with a figure of 48,000 wells. Soon after that, there were reports that it would indeed take 50,000 wells to drill out the Bakken. Since then, the number has gone to 100,000 and perhaps even more. The Bakken truly has to be one of the most interesting formations to have been discovered. 

Catching Up On The News That I Didn't Have Time To Post This Past Week; Global Warming Alarm Muted By UN; I'm Coming Out Of The Closet -- I'm A Denier; I'm Also A Fanboy

A graph is worth a thousand words: coal-generated electricity goes over the cliff in 2016.

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There were two huge stories in the past 24 hours suggesting the house of cards called "global warming" is getting closer and closer to falling. The first has to do with the cover of The National Geographic that appeared some years ago. It turns out that global warming will not cause the Atlantic Ocean to rise so high to drown the Statue of Liberty. That turns out to be a lie. The Wall Street Journal, in an op-ed yesterday, says the UN is muting its "global warming" alarm:

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will shortly publish the second part of its latest report, on the likely impact of climate change. Government representatives are meeting with scientists in Japan to sex up—sorry, rewrite—a summary of the scientists' accounts of storms, droughts and diseases to come. But the actual report, known as AR5-WGII, is less frightening than its predecessor seven years ago.

The 2007 report was riddled with errors about Himalayan glaciers, the Amazon rain forest, African agriculture, water shortages and other matters, all of which erred in the direction of alarm. This led to a critical appraisal of the report-writing process from a council of national science academies, some of whose recommendations were simply ignored. Others, however, hit home. According to leaks, this time the full report is much more cautious and vague about worsening cyclones, changes in rainfall, climate-change refugees, and the overall cost of global warming.

It puts the overall cost at less than 2% of GDP for a 2.5 degrees Centigrade (or 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature increase during this century. This is vastly less than the much heralded prediction of Lord Stern, who said climate change would cost 5%-20% of world GDP in his influential 2006 report for the British government.

The forthcoming report apparently admits that climate change has extinguished no species so far and expresses "very little confidence" that it will do so. There is new emphasis that climate change is not the only environmental problem that matters and on adapting to it rather than preventing it. Yet the report still assumes 70% more warming by the last decades of this century than the best science now suggests. This is because of an overreliance on models rather than on data in the first section of the IPCC report—on physical science—that was published in September 2013.

In this space on Dec. 19, 2012, I forecast that the IPCC was going to have to lower its estimates of future warming because of new sensitivity results. (Sensitivity is the amount of warming due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.) "Cooling Down Fears of Climate Change" (Dec. 19), led to a storm of protest, in which I was called "anti-science," a "denier" and worse.

If/when I find the second story on global warming, I will link it; apparently Al Gore was involved in quite a scam regarding global warming. But then we all knew that so I won't spend a lot of time looking for the article.

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So, why is the UN muting its alarm on global warming? Global warming is sucking all the money and effort from other activist agendas. It's interesting. The UN will admit that no species are likely to be lost due to global warming, but whooping cranes may be a species-casualty due to slicers and dicers. Such irony. We had to kill the whooping cranes to same Americans.

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Oh, here it is, that second note on global warming, from Tallbloke:

It is the greatest deception in history and the extent of the damage has yet to be exposed and measured,” says Dr. Tim Ball in his new book, “The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science."

Dr. Ball has been a climatologist for more than forty years and was one of the earliest critics of the global warming hoax that was initiated by the United Nations environmental program that was established in 1972 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established in 1988. 

Several UN conferences set in motion the hoax that is based on the assertion that carbon dioxide (CO2) was causing a dramatic surge in heating the Earth. IPCC reports have continued to spread this lie through their summaries for policy makers that influenced policies that have caused nations worldwide to spend billions to reduce and restrict CO2 emissions. Manmade climate change—called anthropogenic global warming—continues to be the message though mankind plays no role whatever. 

There is no scientific support for the UN theory. 

CO2, despite being a minor element of the Earth’s atmosphere, is essential for all life on Earth because it is the food that nourishes all vegetation. The Earth has passed through many periods of high levels of CO2 and many cycles of warming and cooling that are part of the life of the planet.

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Coal? Coal currently produces more than 40% of the world's electricity and more coal-fired plants are coming: almost 1,200 new coal facilities in 59 countries are proposed for construction and the IEA estimates China will double its number of coal-fired power plants from around 2,000 currently by 2040, Mann reports.

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Huge spring snow storm predicted for northwestern South Dakota.

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Happy 65th Birthday! Hydraulic fracking is 65 years old. Somehow the mainstream media thinks this is all something new. LOL.

It is true that 65 years ago this week, Halliburton conducted the first commercially successful application of ‘Fracking’, as it has come to be known, in Stephens County, Oklahoma. But the process itself was actually invented and experimented with two years earlier by Stanolind Oil and Gas Company, in the Hugoton gas field in Kansas. While those experiments did not appreciably stimulate the wells to which the technique was applied, this was the real birth of hydraulic fracturing, and since that time, the process has been safely and effectively applied to well more than a million oil and gas wells in the United States alone.

Regardless of which ‘birthday’ one chooses to acknowledge, hydraulic fracturing is now a veritable senior citizen among the vast array of technologies employed by the oil and gas industry. For the first 60 or so years of its life, the process was completely non-controversial. But then along about 2008, it began to dawn on agenda-driven media outlets and radical ‘green’ groups looking for a new controversy to stimulate fundraising that the marriage of hydraulic fracturing with horizontal drilling was beginning to create an oil and gas renaissance in the U.S. Out of that realization, the anti-Fracking movement was born.

The initial environmental motivation behind the movement was the fear that the new massive reserves of inexpensive natural gas would crowd renewables out of the power generation marketplace, which at least had the positive aspect of being a reality-based concern. So these groups and sympathetic media outlets embarked upon a strategy of turning hydraulic fracturing into a national boogeyman (such efforts always need a boogeyman to demonize, after all) complete with a new name - ‘Fracking’ - that they sought to turn into a new cussword. And, to a large extent, they succeeded in that quest.

Good-Size Earthquake In Los Angeles-Area Last Night

5.3 is pretty big for urban area; centered about 20 miles east of downtown Los Angeles. I don't think there's a lot of fracking in La Habra but I could be wrong. My wife, who is out in LA, says it was 5.3; the LA Times says it was 5.1.

The Los Angele Times

 And now the lawsuits begin. Oregon, Massachusetts, and Maryland are considering exploring their legal options as they sever contracts with the creators of the "troubled" ObamaCare websites. The important word in that LA Times summary is that the LA Times also refers to the debacle as ObamaCare, not the Affordable Care Act any more.

GM mysteriously halts sales of some Chevy Cruze models. (Elsewhere, it was reported that GM has broadened the faulty-ignition recall.)

BP more than doubles estimate of oil spill in Lake Michigan.

Chris Christie defends bridge report; announces departure of key ally.

Mr Putin telephone President Obama about Ukraine crisis. It was supposedly an hour-long telephone call but because they were both using Spring iPhones, they were not charged minutes.

The Wall Street Journal

Top story: Putin telephones Obama.

GM recalls almost one million more vehicles world-wide due to faulty ignition switches.

Inflation below Fed target for 22nd month in a row.

Sen Mary Landrieu re-election big "inextricably" linked to her new job running the Senate energy committee.

Obama is holding back key funding for proposed international bridge linking Detroit and Windsor He is worried TransCanada will truck oil across the bridge if the Keystone XL is not approved.

We should see more Germany industrial activity in the US. Energy expenses were already getting out of hand, and now business leaders are begrudgingly agreeing to a minimum-wage increase.

American Airlines will sharply shrink its regional carrier American Eagle Airlines after its pilots voted down a contract proposal.

 The Dickinson Press

This is a must-read, the last column by Bryan Horwath, the regional reporter for The Dickinson Press who wrote about politics, energy, agriculture, water issues and the people of southwest North Dakota during his time at the newspaper. He is moving on to Aberdeen, South Dakota.