Updating the MRO re-fracking story.
For those who may have missed the earlier story, here's the link. Slide 14 at the MRO presentation provides additional background. Many of these presentations "disappear" over time.
A reader has sent me several notes regarding the MRO story. I feel very guilty not doing those notes justice -- my poor excuse is I'm traveling and don't stop much to blog.
I will come back to this later. The reader went through the MRO presentation of 3Q14; from slide 9 came up with these wells that might have been potential candidates for re-fracking. It will be interesting, later to compare this list with mine. I will fill in the well data for the file numbers below, later. If I put the file number in bold red, it means it was on my original list (but remember, this list is for 3Q14; my original list was back in July, 2011; a lot has happened between now and then:
16626, 289, MRO, Kupper 34-10H, Chimney Butte, it appears the first frack was open hole, 477,920 pounds sand, t9/07; cum 195K 10/14; another link; re-frack link;
16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, it appears the first frack was open hole, 511,700 pounds sand, t12/08; cum 161K 10/14; re-frack link; see this post;
16772, 400, MRO, Pennington 41-4H, Reunion Bay, it appears the first frack was open hole, 386,420 pounds sand, t6/09; cum 195K 10/14; re-frack link;
16778, 354, MRO, Jack Pennington 21-28H, Reunion Bay, 0 stages; 524,020 lbs, t8/08; cum 177K 10/14; re-frack link;
16940, 299, MRO, Kupper 43-10H, Chimney Butte, t4/08; cum 168K 10/14; see this link;
17176, see this link;
17314, see this link;
17333, see this link;
17350, 522, MRO, Strommen 14-8H, Killdeer, t10/08; cum 181K 10/14;
17502, 637, MRO, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 290K 10/14; see this link;
17537, 503, MRO, David Beck-USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 165K 10/14;
17556, 553, MRO, Debb Stroh 44-11H, Killdeer, t12/08; cum 180K 10/14; see this link;
17753, 553, MRO, Strommen 34-8H, Killdeer, t6/09; cum 193K 10/14; see this link;
17771, 585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-3H, t3/09; cum 244K 10/14; see this link;
17966,
18042,
18384,
20692,
21466,
22113,
The reader mentioned that MRO re-completed 16 wells in 3Q14.
The reader noted that for one well:
If you have a decline curve model, you can calculate IRRs in a spread sheet, given various cost and estimated prices. I would estimate 17753 well IRR of about 30 percent, given refrac cost of $1.5MM and realized prices of $50/bbl. That is not bad given today's pricing.
If drilling and fracking stop, what does a frac company do?
ReplyDeleteRefrac.
This might be big. Limit declines and produce oil and gas without drilling.
That throws all the projections of cost and decline into a cocked hat.
Anon 1
Yes, it does (throws all the projections of cost and decline into a cocked hat). I will have some fun with this as I go along (still traveling, which limits my blogging). It would be very interesting to sit in on some meetings with CLR, MRO, other geologists as they started piecing some of this "what-if" scenarios together.
DeleteThe Bakken seems to be full of surprises.