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Friday, December 26, 2014

Saudis Are Losing Somewhere Between $106 Million / Day And $138 Million / Day By Quibbling Over 600,000 BOPD -- December 26, 2014

With all its cash reserves, this is no big deal at all for Saudi but it's an interesting data point, to say the least. Rigzone is reporting:
Saudi Arabia's Finance Ministry will discuss with the central bank its options for financing the large state budget deficit expected next year, and may cover some of the shortfall with borrowing.
Responding to the plunge of oil prices, the ministry announced on Thursday a 2015 budget plan which envisions a deficit of 145 billion riyals ($38.7 billion).
A ministry statement said the government could cover the deficit with its huge fiscal reserves, but [a Saudi official said] that borrowing might also be used. "There is also a chance to borrow at good rates."
$38.7 billion / 365 days =  $106 million / day.

Fitzsimmons said it was about $138 million / day. (If that link breaks, as I expect it will, here's the original post.)

The numbers ($106 million and $138 million) are in the same ball park. One has to assume Saudi Arabia is low-balling their deficit, and Fitzimmons might be a bit on the high side, not having access to all the data. Fitzsimmons, I would say, was pretty much on target.

By the way, this also permits one to calculate Saudi Arabia's "break-even" price that everyone seems to be talking about.

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