Idle Chatter On Missing Another Production Record In The Bakken -- December 15, 2014

This is for newbies. Regular readers are very much aware of this. Wanna see just how "incredible" the Bakken?

Some dots to connect:

1. From the most recent Director's Cut, data for October, 2014. I did not expect the first decline in a long time in Bakken oil production until November, 2014. In fact, the first decline in a long time was in October, 2014, a month earlier. How much did "we" miss by. By 0.3%. Or about 3,000 bbls out of every million bbls produced. 3,000 bbls. There are IPs of 3,000 bbls. But it was still a miss.

2. From the most recent Director's Cut, data for October, 2014. The wind was too strong nine days in October to allow fracking. There was no fracking for nine days in October. 9/30 = 30%. Thirty percent of the month was lost to fracking due to excessive winds. Big deal?

3. Everyone knows that Bakken wells are front-loaded. The best production occurs in the first few months and then declines after that. Losing 30% of your fracking days in any given month is going to dramatically decrease production for the entire month. Even the Red Queen knows that. And, yet, despite losing 30% of fracking opportunities, another production record was almost broken.

4. But there's more. It was said in the Director's Cut, data for October, 2014, that operators were already choking back on production to meet the new flaring rules. Flaring is a bigger problem in the higher production areas than in the poorer production areas. And still, another production record was almost broken.

5. That should be enough. But indications are that operators are meeting contract obligations, most of which are probably hedged, and are probably cutting back on production that would be sold at spot price and not required by contract.

But when you lose 30% of your fracking month to the freaking wind, it's not hard to understand missing a new production record. [Yes, I'm sure it's not the first time this has happened; but it's the first it's happened with a) new flaring rules; and, b) a slump in the price of oil.]

By the way, active rigs in North Dakota are holding steady at 182:

	12/15/2014	12/15/2013	12/15/2012	12/15/2011	12/15/2010
Active Rigs	182	191	181	198	165