Director's Cut Is Out -- New Production Record Missed By About 0.3%; One-Third Of October Too Windy Too Complete Wells -- December 12, 2014; Glas Flared Down To 22%; Bakken Crude Oil Spot At $42/Bbl

Link here. In addition, The Bakken Magazine reports on this month's production in the Bakken.

We can finally get rid of that poll in which we asked, "Will North Dakota daily crude oil production decline before the end of November, 2014?" I haven't looked once at the poll results now now, and the results are:

• Yes: 29%
• No: 71%

I was with the "no" crowd. I thought we would get one more month. However, and this is a big "however": the preliminary number will be revised upward, and the delta is narrow:

• October, 2014, most recent data, preliminary: 1,182,174 bopd
• September, 2014, current record holding: 1,186,228 bopd
• Delta: only 4,054 bbls. 

The September "preliminary" number was: 1,184,635 bbls; it was revised upward 1,593 bbls.

So, it's going to be close.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Oil:

• October, 2014: 1,183,515 bopd (revised);  1,182,174 bopd (preliminary)
• September, 2014: 1,186,228 (revised); 1,184,635 (new all-time high)
• delta: -2,713 (daily bopd)
• -2,713 / 1,186,228 = - 0.2% -- the Red Queen won, but this month she had help from the wind.

Producing wells: 

• October, 2014: 11,892 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565
• July, 2014: 11,293
• June, 2014: 11,079  

Permitting:

• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• July, 2014: 265
• June, 2014: 247
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2014: $41.75
• November: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46
• July, 2014: $86.20

Rig count:

• Today: 183 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192
• June, 2014: 190

Director's comments:

• Three significant forces are driving the slow-down: oil price; flaring reduction rules; and, oil conditioning. Several operators are postponing coompletion work to achieve the NDIC gas capture goals. In October, there were nine (9) days in which the wind was too high for completion work.
• Drillers outpaced completion crews in October. At the end of October there were about 650 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 40
• The rig count is set to fall rapidly during first quarter of 2015
• Drilling permit activity peaked in October as operators worked on their summer programs, planned locations for next winter, and adjusted capital budgets
• US natural gas storage is now10% below the 5-year average; North Dakota shallow gas exploration could be economic at future gas prices. A reminder: there is some exploration underway in Emmons County; the first well is confidential until 12/23/14.
• The percentage of gas flared dropped to 22% 
• The Tioga gas plant remained below 70% of full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea