CLR, Hamm, Forbes, Saudi, Iran, Russia -- December 22, 2014

A reader sent this link, thank you: Harold Hamm "slashes" 2015 CAPEX -- Forbes. The reader noted these paragraphs of particular interest:

How bad could it get? The analysts at Bernstein Research figure that if oil were to stay at $65 per barrel for 2015, it would mean a 50% reduction in oil company cash flow and precipitate a 35% overall cut in capex. Bernstein doesn’t 2015 will be that bad, however. And neither does Hamm. “I still think this is a short term move,” he says. “This is the Saudis trying to cut the legs out from under people.”

Which people? If the Saudis are trying to take market share from the U.S. producers, why not just come out and say it? “There’s more going on,” says Hamm. He sees the Saudi move not to cut oil production not as an attack on American producers (the U.S. is Saudi’s protector after all) but more as a volley launched at its true religious and political rivals Iran and Russia. “This is about taking away capital,” says Hamm. “It’s their way of waging war.”

There’s a wildcard that Hamm sees creeping to the top of the deck. And it’s labeled “The law of Unintended Consequences.” Low prices have turned the ruble into rubble, while Iran needs much more oil revenue to keep its economy afloat. Venezuela too is teetering on the edge of collapse, while Libya remains a basket case. It wouldn’t take much of an oil supply disruption in any of those countries to send prices right back up to match long-term marginal costs of around $100 a barrel.

Also, from SeekingAlpha:

• Continental Resources continues to cut its 2015 capital budget in response to falling oil prices, now forecasting 2015 capex of $2.7B after announcing a $4.6B budget last month, which itself was a cut from its original $5.2B target
• CLR also lowers its outlook for next year's production growth to a 16%-20% increase after telling investors last month to expect 23%-29% growth in 2015
• CLR reduces its expected average rig count for the year to 31 from earlier expectations of 50
• CLR's 2014 capital budget was $4.05B

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Lauren Bacall, Robin Williams....

Everyone has their favorite Joe Cocker video; this is mine:

Cry Me A River, Joe Cocker