RBN Energy Tells Us How Huge The Canadian Oil Sands Really Is, A Must Read -- November 26, 204

Active Rigs:

	11/26/2014	11/26/2013	11/26/2012	11/26/2011	11/26/2010
Active Rigs	184	193	185	202	163

RBN Energy: the diluent transportation story in Canada; building enough pipeline to reach 1 million bopd by 2017, more than enough through 2030; part 6 in the series.

Some data points from the article:

• Total Canadian demand for diluent in 2014 is expected to average 380 Mb/d – meaning that with 160 Mb/d of local supply about 220 Mb/d will be imported – mostly from the U.S. By 2019 total Canadian diluent demand is expected to increase to 685 Mb/d and some of that will be supplied by imports from the U.S.
• TransCanada is a major pipeline system owner and operator in North America with extensive storage and outbound pipelines in Hardisty and an expanding presence in Edmonton. The company is currently constructing the TC Terminal in the Heartland region of Fort Saskatchewan, north of Edmonton together with the125 mile, 900 Mb/d capacity Heartland pipeline to Hardisty. Both these projects are planned to be in service during 2H 2015. 
• TransCanada has also just received regulatory approval (in October 2014) to begin construction of the 300 mile Grand Rapids pipeline from the Heartland terminal to Fort McKay, northwest of Fort McMurray in the oil sands production region. Grand Rapids will carry up to 900 Mb/d of blended bitumen and diluent from Fort McMurray to Edmonton and up to 330 Mb/d of diluent in the opposite direction. The pipeline is planned to come online in stages starting in mid-2016 with completion expected in 2017 and includes approximately 1 MMBbl of storage capacity.
• TransCanada is partnering with Phoenix Energy Holdings Limited to develop the $3-billion Grand Rapids Pipeline that will be a 50/50 joint venture between the companies. Phoenix is a wholly owned subsidiary of PetroChina that owns the Dover and Mackay oil sands fields that the pipeline will initially serve. Bitumen production from Dover and McKay is expected to ultimately reach 520 Mb/d.  

Much, much more at the linked article including great graphics as usual.

***********************

Update On Devils Lake Refinery Proposal

It is being reported at The Dickinson Press.  I'm not aware of anything new that hasn't beer reported earlier:
Data points:

• officials from Eagles Ledge Energy, based in Vancouver, B.C
• $200 million, 20,000-barrel-a-day clean fuels oil refinery
• could be built near Devils Lake
• American Dakota Refinery could be open by 2017
• would process oil from the Bakken Oil Patch of western North Dakota into low-sulfur diesel fuel, which would be converted to off-road diesel fue
• similar to the one in Dickinson 

*****************************

Ferguson, Final Observations

As mentioned yesterday, I stayed up all night Monday/Tuesday listening to radio reports on Ferguson. These were the things the stood out for me:

• I was most disillusioned when the stepfather said, "burn this bitch down." (Rodney King: "Can't we all just get along?")
• the side-by-side video of America burning; Nero asking for calm
• although the burning was bad for business owners in Ferguson, it was nowhere near as bad as I thought it was going to be; it sounds like it was limited to a small area
• I was amazed that some Ferguson business owners did not think there would be any violence or looting (what were they smoking?)
• on-scene reporters noted police tactics: let the agitators burn a few "gimmes" -- a few police cars (probably those with lots of mileage were left unattended); but nothing really important burned; no federal buildings (post office, court houses, etc., burned (hardly occupied); that would have been REALLY SERIOUS; someone might have gotten arrested
• I was the only one who thought making the announcement after dark was brilliant (whether planned or not)
• I learned a lot about the reporters on the scene (dishonest reporting; hidden agendas; naive; uneducated)
• it certainly seemed the press was hoping for more
• based on early events, this story has no legs at the national level (though Rev Al will milk it for all it's worth); but it will be the beginning of the end for Ferguson as an urban area where people want to live
• by the end of the week, outside agitators will be moving on
• most impressive: the military/law enforcement held their fire -- no injuries or deaths due to gunfire (by LE/NG)
• the mayor was upset the National Guard did not arrive earlier; the National Guard did it just right; I think the response by all LE/NG was brilliant, considering
• no reports of any police harassment; no FBI stories of note
• I don't recall any Eric Holder public announcements Tuesday morning or even anything from Nero

And then this: along with Martin Luther King, I am judging the agitators in Ferguson on the basis of their character (actions), and not on their skin color. 

Putting things into perspective. This from CBS-StLouis-Local :

Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis says it admitted two injured people and treated and released five others. It didn’t disclose the nature of the injuries.

Years ago, in another life, I worked in the emergency room of Los Angeles County hospital during the height of the gang wars. My surgical rotation had emergency room call every Saturday, 8:00 a.m. through Sunday morning, 8:00 a.m., and we stayed with our patients until Sunday evening, 5:00 p.m. when we were finally relieved after 33 hours of being in a virtual war zone from a casualty perspective. When I think back on that now, it really was incredible how good the nurses and technicians were at triaging and performing life-saving procedures, freeing the surgeons up for cases in the operating room. I never recall an administrator or a "clip-board nurse" getting in our way. It's amazing how much one can do with a) intubation and artificial respiration; b) stopping bleeding with relatively simple procedures; c) infusing liters of clear fluids.

The surgeons "fought" for this shift -- the busiest surgical night of the week. When casualties from gang fights started rolling in, our first question to the combatants was, "how many more are coming in?" We needed that data to start triaging.

Saturday nights were so busy with gang wars that folks presenting with non-traumatic medical / surgical emergencies were stabilized, often with huge doses of antibiotics and placed in holding areas (usually hallways) waiting to be admitted or taken to the operating room the next day.

So when I see "two were admitted" and five were released in that story above it really puts things into perspective. I doubt more than four or five LA police cruisers responded to any given gang war, and yet, here in Ferguson, thousands of law enforcement and national guard, and no "police state" killings reported in the early going. Pretty impressive.

Unfortunately, it seemed the press and a few others were hoping for more.