Jobless Claims Plunge; 14-Year Low -- October 16, 2014

Link here.

Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped last week to their lowest level in 14 years as employers avoided trimming staff even as global growth weakens.

Jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 264,000 in the week ended Oct. 11, the fewest since April 2000 and lower than any projection in the Bloomberg survey of economists. There was nothing unusual in the data and no states were estimated, a spokesman said as the figures were released.

Companies are beefing up staff as payrolls this year remain on track for their biggest gain since 1999.

Forecasts:

The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the number of claims would increase to 290,000 last week. Estimates ranged from 280,000 to 300,000. The prior week’s reading was unrevised at 287,000.

Moving average:

The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, declined to 283,500, the lowest since June 2000, from 287,750 in the prior week.  

This is an incredible report. I will provide commentary later.

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Initial Unemployment Claims

Historical Data -- Graphed

Go to this link: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims.
When you get to the link, look at two graphs.

First look at the 2013 to 2014 graph.

Then look at the 1995 to 2014 graph (it only goes back as far as 1995).

Two points: first -- I noted earlier that at some point, one must reach a "baseline" -- a point at which initial claims will not drop much further. That seems to be borne out by the graph from 1995 to 2014.

The second point: I believe long-term unemployment benefits ended in late 2013, and were not renewed, despite much call for renewing extended benefits, in early 2014. Look at the 2013 to 2014 graph: first time claims peaked at the end of December, 2013, but then has been on a striking downward trajectory since then (with only one strange blip in May, 2014, time frame).

It may be simply coincidental that initial claims have plunged ever since long-term benefits ended.

Part I of a 2-part comment.

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A Note To The Granddaughters ...

... and to those who call me.

Wow, what a liberating feeling. No phone!

I have an old Samsung, at least four years old, the clamshell / flip style. The original battery was starting to hold a charge less and less, barely lasting a long telephone call. I went to a local Interstate Battery Store the other day, and had a new Samsung battery inserted.

It worked, of course, but for some odd reason it would not charge. And the phone eventually died. Like last night.

I had several options:

• return to the store to try a new battery;
• return to the store for an external battery recharger;
• to Sprint store for a new phone.

I will do almost anything to avoid getting a new phone. I would get the very same phone, and the cost would be nominal ($50?), and would have the same phone number, etc., but they always seem to mess up the billing for the first month or two. At least that's been my experience.

I doubt Sprint is any different than ATT or Verizon in that regard.

I love Sprint and won't change. 

The folks at Interstate Battery are incredible; very, very easy to deal with. I assumed.... and instead they will order the EXACT Samsung battery that was designed for this phone and see if that works. Their concern: what will I do without a phone for one week until the battery gets in?

Are you kidding? No phone for a week! Liberated. I told the individual that the only reason I need a phone is to all my bank periodically when I mess up my password and get locked out of my account.

Occasionally I need a phone to call my daughter when I get lost or forget where I'm supposed to be taking our younger granddaughter to soccer (the fields change frequently) or the older granddaughter to swimming (the venues change with each swimming meet).

But that's about it.

Liberated. For a week.

And if the new battery for some reason doesn't recharge inside the phone (which would make no sense), I will simply but an external recharger and recharge the battery every few days.

I just hope I don't have to visit the telephone store to get a "new" clamshell / flip phone.

[Update: I got the "new" battery yesterday, October 27, 2014, and I now have my 20th century clamshell back. I guess I'm glad to have a phone again, but I have to say, I did not miss it all that much. However, I was able to call The Wall Street Journal folks to let them know that the daily newspaper is not being delivered ever since the manager of the apartment complex changed the security code on the gate to the apartment complex. If it's not one thing, it's another.]