Don sent me a link earlier today regarding an early story of the Bakken, which then then led me to a very nice analysis of the Bakken which was published at The Oil Drum in 2008. It is a very, very good overview of the Bakken. The author also lays out a very, very nice analysis of the likely amount of oil that the Bakken might produce.
It's a long article, and I heartily recommend newbies read it to help them put the Bakken - 2008 in perspective to the Bakken - 2014.
So, how much did the writer think the Bakken was capable of producing. From the article:
Will Bakken ever produce as much as 4.1 billion barrels (= 3,649+500 million barrels), the amount suggested by the USGS estimate? It seems very unlikely. Production so far has been 111 million barrels. If the industry is able to discover several more prolific areas such as the Elm Coulee field in Montana (43 million barrels, or 38% of the Bakken oil recovered to date), it might be possible to increase this recovery to 500 million barrels, or 4.5 times the current production. Is total production of 500 million barrels likely? It's difficult to say. The USGS estimate is vastly higher than this, so much less likely.
If 500 million barrels turns out to be the ultimate recovery, the recovery factor would range from 0.13% to 0.25% of estimated oil in place. This very low percentage recovery of the estimated oil in place is not unreasonable if one considers that many of the more marginal areas of the field are likely to be deemed sub-economic and will never be drilled and produced. Technology improvements that will inevitably be made during an era of high energy prices will undoubtedly render some of this more marginal oil recoverable, but the total recovery is still likely to be low.It appears the writer suggested, back in 2008:
- 0.13% to 0.25%: recovery rate of original oil in place;
- not much more than 500 million bbls over the lifetime of the Bakken;
- marginal areas of the field will be deemed sub-economic; and,
- although there would be technological improvements, making more marginal oil recoverable, the total recovery is still likely to be low
- 1 million bopd (about 300 million bbls/year, I suppose, starting this year); and this is just North Dakota; The Oil Drum author was talking about the entire Bakken;
- a recovery rate of somewhere between 3% and 8% is the general consensus, but some think the recovery rate is more than 8%;
- even the "marginal areas" (whatever that means) are being drilled aggressively; whether they will be found to be sub-economic will not be know for awhile, but oil companies certainly think drilling at the edges of the Bakken are worth the effort/financial risk; and,
- this is all primary production; secondary and tertiary production will increase ultimate recovery
Cumulative production by formation, according to the NDIC, to date:
- Bakken: 831,017,850 bbls (moving toward 1 billion bbls of oil from the Bakken)
- Bakken/Three Forks: 3,590,399 bbls
- Three Forks: 145,747 bbls
- Sanish: 22,539,246 bbls
- Pronghorn: not yet separated out
In comparison, the next most prolific formation:
- Madison: 939,049,431 bbls; in continuous production in North Dakota since the 1950s
Oh, back to that question whether the Bakken would ever produce 4.1 billion bbls of oil?
4.1 billion / 300 million = 14 years.
Or 4.1 - 857,293,242 = 3,242,706,758
3,242,706,758 / 365 million = 9 years.
The contributor who wrote the linked article at The Oil Drum: Piccolo, a petroleum engineer working in the petroleum industry. I can see why he/she used an alias. LOL.
By the way, how much OOIP was "Piccolo" willing to concede that existed in the Bakken?
0.20% of what = 500 million bbls (from "Piccolo").
The "what" = 250 billion bbls,
The general consensus is that the recovery rate, at minimum, is 3%, and might be 8%.
3% of 250 billion bbls = 7.5 billion bbls to be recovered at 3%.
7.5 billion bbls / EURs of 603,000 bbls = 12,438 wells at 2,000 wells/year = 6 years of wells. About two years of wells are already drilled. Something tells me the 3% recovery rate OR the 250-billion-bbl OOIP estimate is far too low.
Check out the original Leigh Price paper.
**********************************
Piccolo predicted 150,000-225,000 as the oil peak! He was way, way off.
ReplyDeleteA year later when we were at 300,000 Piccolo admitted (in comments, when confronted) that he had been too skeptical. He never wrote a headpost though to really correct himself (similar behavior from Red Queen Rune).
He did remark that he though the Bakken wouldn't move the needle on the world stage, but that if it ever got to 1,000,000 bdp that would be world stage significant supply. Look where we are now...over that number (including Montana).
The Bakken certainly surprised all of us. I think it's a huge credit to the engineers, geologists, roughnecks, and many, many others I don't even know about. It's quite a story.
Delete