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Thursday, August 7, 2014

Jobless Claims Plummet; Four-Week Average Hits 8.5 Year Low -- August 7, 2014

Reuters is reporting:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a further strengthening of labor market conditions.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000 for the week ended Aug. 2, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
The prior week's claims were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 305,000 for the week ended Aug. 2. Volatility related to the summer automobile plant shutdowns for retooling pushed claims to a 14-year low in July.
So, the economists forecast a rise to 305, 000 and now only do the claims come down, they plummet. 

Whatever. 

However, note that last sentence: volatility related to summer automobile plant shutdowns....

It's been reported for the past several weeks now that the automobile manufacturers expected their best year in quite some time. I believe I read that July auto sales were the best in six years. Perhaps the auto manufacturers did not shut down as much as expected, to keep up with new demand. Just a thought. 
Most of that volatility has worked its way through the data. The four-week average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 4,000 to 293,500, the lowest level since February 2006.

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