All Along The Watch Tower, Continued

Finally, the proxy for the civil war in Iraq is in. I was surprised by how long it took for the oil futures market to respond. But finally, I see, oil is up nearly 2% in overnight futures.

I used to say there were two things driving any market: fear and greed. I forgot about the third leg of investment sentiment: reality. The reality is that oil exports from Iraq will be affected by the civil war.

It is interesting that the Dow futures are green. It will be interesting to see if that lasts.

A little over a decade ago we had "shock and awe." Baghdad fell on April 9, 2003.

Fast forward, we now have "hope and change." Seriously. This was the sub-headline in the Los Angeles Times regarding the president's decision not to support the Iraqi democratically-elected government:

The militants roll past the major northern city of Mosul and into Tikrit. U.S. officials are hopeful that the fall of Mosul will galvanize the Iraqi government.

So, we have hope. And by the end of the weekend we will have change. If nothing else, the Sunnis (the peaceful ones now control much of the north). I can't make this up. The Los Angeles Times actually spelled out the Obama Doctrine when it comes to a shooting war: hope.

In the end, it will be determined that Obama made the right choice. The Americans don't want to go back into Iraq. It is what it is. It was what it was. Oh, the places you will go. Green eggs and ham? Ask the cat in the hat.

On June 10, 2014, I posted my thoughts on the global energy picture. To the best of my knowledge, and re-reading the post, there was nothing in there about a shooting war (except perhaps, peripherally, the Russian-Ukraine event) but nothing about the Mideast imploding. It was about the global energy picture without a shooting war in the mideast.

If this "thing" in Iraq goes as it appears to go, once the sand settles, I may have to add a fifth center of gravity: IranSyriaIraq. Which leads us to Saudi Arabia. One word: terrified.