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Thursday, May 29, 2014

Jobless Claims Drop So Much, Not Even A Headline Story Any More; 1Q14 GDP Worse Than Originally Reported: Contracted At An Annual Rate of 1.0 Percent; Obama Administration Initially Said There Was Growth, Though Paltry, At 0.1%

This is quite remarkable, how difficult it is to find the weekly report on jobless claims. Today, with another record-breaking drop in US jobless claims, one would have expected it to be the top news story of the day. Earlier this morning, I had trouble finding the numbers. I went off to breakfast assuming it would be the #1 story today, and yet nowhere in the liberal press/mainstream media is the story making the headlines. That speaks volumes.

Deep down among the other ho-hum Yahoo!Finance stories this headline: US jobless claims drop, continuing claims lowest since 2007. Reuters is reporting:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a strengthening labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
The prior week's claims were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless aid falling to 318,000 last week.
This is truly incredible, the lowest number since 2007, and dropping an astounding 27,000 -- seasonally adjusted. 

And it's not even a headline story. 

The boiler-plate:
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 11,250 to 311,500 last week, the lowest level since August 2007.  
The good news: all that talk about extending unemployment benefits probably just that -- talk. With the jobs market surging, and everyone now able to find a job, not much reason for extending the unemployment benefits. 

The big question is: how huge is the rally on Wall Street with all this good news? Ah, yes, the market is up ... drum roll ... 10 points (0.06%). Zeropointohsix percent is 0.0006. 6/10,000 points. I was really hoping for a lot more. 

Let's check my bellwether stock for the day: ERF, after a recent jump. It's down. And so it goes.

Interestingly, this story got very little play. I challenge readers to find mainstream press talking about it. I assume it was not on NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw (or whoever the current "reader" is). Remember the original number? 1Q14 GDP grew at just 0.1%. 

See if you can find the "revised" number. It is very, very difficult. I'm not even sure this is for the US, it's so hard to find, but I think it is. bizzyblog is reporting;
The overall number is worse than anyone thought
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the decline in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.
The link provides an incredible background of data and analysis. 

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