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Thursday, May 1, 2014

For Investors Only; Was KOG A Miss? That's Quite A Beat By COP And XOM; CVX Increases Dividend

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Companies reporting earnings Thursday:
  • Baytex Energy (BTE.TO): 38 cents vs 8 cents one year earlier; beats by one cent;
  • Black Hills Corporation: 93 cents; after market close
  • CenterPoint Energy: 31 cents before market open; actual -- beats  by 11 cents;
  • COP: $1.56 before market open; actual "easily beat"; $1.71; beats by 26 cents;
  • Enterprise Products Partners: forecast 75 cents; beats by 2 cents;
  • XOM: $1.88 before market open; actual: "handily beat" -- $2.10; beats by 22 cents;
  • KOG: forecast -- 18 cents after market close; big miss? actual 11 cents/share
  • Linn Energy LLC: 38 cents,
  • Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC): $1.05 before market open; actual: misses by 39 cents; refinery maintenance
  • Targa Resources Partners (NGLS): forecast 49 cents; actual beats by 18 cents;
  • Ultra Petroleum (UPL): beats by 16 cents; 
Comment: KOG could be a disappointment.

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Was KOG A Miss?

The problem is making sure we are measuring the same thing. According to Yahoo!Finance, the expectations for KOG were 18 cents/share net income. According to the press release, 11 cents/share net income. But sometimes there are one-time items that affect the comparison. [Yes, SeekingAlpha says KOG missed by 7 cents. KOG is down over 7% in after-hour trading, down almost a buck to $11.55.]

The press release:
For the first quarter-ended March 31, 2014, the Company reported oil and gas sales of $257.0 million, as compared to $165.1 million during the same period in 2013, representing an increase of 56%. 
Kodiak reported an overall 57% increase in quarter-over-quarter equivalent sales volumes with 3.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) sold, or an average of 34.0 MBOE per day (MBOE/d) during the first quarter of 2014, as compared to 2.0 MMBOE, or an average of 21.7 MBOE/d in the first quarter of 2013.  
Adjusted EBITDA was $179.9 million for the first quarter 2014, as compared to $124.4 million in the same period in 2013. 
For the first quarter 2014, the Company reported net income of $29.1 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to net income of $19.4 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the same period in 2013. 
Kodiak reported net cash provided by operating activities during the first quarter 2014 of $163.5 million, as compared to $114.6 million during the same period in 2013, an increase of 43%.
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Twelve companies announced increased dividend or distribution increases, including XOM (previously posted) and a huge 7% increase announcement by CVX, from $1.00/share to $1.07. Sweet. Cracker Barrel increased its dividend from 75 cents to a dollar. Huge. WW Grainger incrased its dividend from 93 cents to $1.08.

Despite a pretty flat day on the market, and a further drop in the price of oil, the following companies traded at a new 52-week high: ENB, MPC, NFX, OKE, WIN, WMB. It's been a long time since I've seen ENB trade at a new 52-week high. Let's see if there are any headlines to explain this?

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Severe Weather Impacts Genesee & Wyoming
Genesee & Wyoming misses by $0.14, reports revs in-line -- co breaks out weather impact: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.70 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.84; revenues rose 0.3% year/year to $376.3 mln vs the $379.67 mln consensus. 
  • Severe winter weather in North America resulted in significant disruptions to several G&W operating regions, reducing EPS in Q1 by an estimated $0.23 to $0.26 from a combination of lower revenues and higher operating costs. 
    • Estimated revenue reduction due to weather was ~$15 million to $20 million, primarily driven by temporary line closures, congestion in the North American rail network which impeded interchange with connecting carriers, and reduced supply of available freight cars. Lost profit margin from the lower revenues reduced diluted EPS by ~$0.10 to $0.13. 
    • Estimated higher operating costs due to weather were ~$12 million, primarily due to increased overtime, higher diesel fuel consumption, higher car hire and extensive snow removal. The increased winter expenses reduced diluted EPS by ~$0.13.

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