The comments I sent to Don after reading the article:
Great article.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
I noted the same thing he did, which he said deep down in the article: KOG's middle Bakken wells are much better than the Three Forks wells. Lynn Helms, some time ago, had suggested Three Forks might actually be better than the Middle Bakken.
Second comment: the play to watch is KOG's Wildrose play.
Final comment: break-even point with oil at $95 is 325,000 EUR. Bakken seldom gets $95 but it varies widely from operator to operator. If 325,000 is the break-even point, it is interesting to see all the marginal wells being drilled in the Bakken.
When the delta between the current share price and the future share is not particularly wide, and the driver (the price of oil) is trading at its high end, it makes it problematic to consider KOG might be a takeover target, especially when it is generally assumed that a hostile takeover will command a 25% premium.
Meanwhile, Filloon on TPLM:
- Northland Capital's $14 price target provides 43% upside for Triangle over the next year.
- Triangle continues to improve IP rates in the Bakken through better well design.
- Rockpile responds to good third party growth rates with an additional frac spread and the start of a wireline business.
- Once online, Caliber's natural gas processing facility could drive midstream revenues.
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A Note For The Granddaughters
Supernovae fascinate the older granddaughter. There was quite a discussion of supernovae and neutrinos this past Sunday on "Cosmos." If one wants to reinforce this most recent episode of the "Cosmos" with regard to supernovae and neutrinos, one of the better, more recent articles was in Scientific American, by Ray Jayawardhama, "Coming Soon: A Supernova Near You."
When I read the "hard copy," I did not realize it was a "preview" from an upcoming book by the same author.
The article begins:
In the wee hours of February 24, 1987, atop Cerro Las Campanas in Chile, Ian Shelton decided to develop the final photographic plate of the night before heading to bed.
Shelton, a resident observer employed by the University of Toronto, had been tinkering with a decades-old 10-inch telescope on the mountain, training the little instrument on one of the Milky Way's galactic sidekicks, the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC).
He lifted the photographic plate out of the developing tank and examined it to make sure the three-hour-long exposure had come out well. Then something caught his attention: a curious bright spot next to a familiar spider-shaped feature known as the Tarantula nebula.
He wondered what the unusual spot might be and reasoned that it was likely a flaw in the plate itself. But just to be sure, he walked out of the telescope enclosure into the dry mountain air to look up at the sky with his own eyes. He saw a bright star in the LMC that had not been visible the night before. Shelton hurried over to one of the other telescope domes on the ridge to share the news.This was the "supernova 1987A."
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A Note To The Granddaughters
I knew I would be retiring at age 57, and I would live to 97. My active years would take me through age 77. I would start my first business at age 75. Everything remains on track.
When we retired, we had planned to live in every major American city for two-year intervals. Rent an efficiency apartment for two years in San Francisco, two years in Miami, two years in NYC, two years in Portland (Oregon), two years in Washington, DC, etc. With the granddaughters, that has played out surprisingly well: one year in New Hampshire; two years in Charleston, South Carolina; four years in Boston; first year in DFW area.
One of the criteria for the specific location in each of these cities: the efficiency apartment had to be within walking/biking distance of a university or college.
Through our granddaughters I am re-learning physics, chemistry, biology, electricity. The older granddaughter will be entering college in less than seven or eight years. I will be moving with her. Don't laugh. Read about Douglas MacArthur's mother, Pinky, in William Manchester's American Caesar.