Sixteen (16) New Permits On Yesterday's Daily Activity Report -- March 31, 2014 -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Permits Running 30% Higher Than Two Years Ago During The Boom

New permits --

• Operators: SM Energy (4), Oasis (4), KOG (3), Whiting (2), OXY USA (2), EOG
• Fields: West Ambrose (Divide), Missouri Ridge (Williams), Pembroke (McKenzie), Sanish (Mountrail), Cabernet (Dunn), Fayette (Dunn), Ambrose (Divide), Parshall
• Comments: #28034, the EOG permit was inadvertently left off the activity note yesterday

As of March 31 for this year and the previous two years, this many permits have been issued, and this is how many permits were projected at that time:

• 2014: 685 -- 2,778 (rounds to 2800)
• 2013: 619 -- 2,539 (rounds to 2500)
• 2012: 520 -- 2,132 (rounds to 2100)

2778 - 2132 = 646
673/2132 = 30%

Projected permits for 2014 (this year) are running higher than 30% of that seen in 2012 at same point in time.

NDIC issues permits based on a number of parameters including the ability/capacity/likelihood that the operator can actually execute the permit. Think about that: permits are running 30% higher than 2012. Now look at the rig count today compared to 2012:

• 2014: 193
• 2012: 207

207 - 193 = 14
14/193 = 7%

So, permits are running 30% ahead when rigs are running 7% behind. How can this be:

• time drilling has decreased significantly (more powerful rigs, more info about the Bakken)
• down time has decreased due to pad drilling