Where We Stand With ObamaCare -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken

Media reports regarding ObamaCare in the past 24 hours continue to clarify ObamaCare. Ms Pelosi was correct: we won't know what's in it until the law is passed. Note: the most important word in that previous sentence: law. That will come up, again, later.

1. On civil disobedience.

A few months ago I noted that defiance to ObamaCare will turn out to be largest act of civil disobedience in the US since the Civil War. It appears I am really, really correct. Even Ms Sotomayor, newest member of the US Supreme Court has noted it, and appears to have sanctioned it. In fact, she appears to be recommending that course of action to corporate America: if you don't like the law, "opt out," and pay the fine. Wow, such a cavalier approach to US law. If you don't like a law, "opt out," and pay the fine. Again, ObamaCare is the "law" of the land, but at least one jurist explains her feelings about US laws: if you don't like the "law," opt out. If you don't like paying US income taxes, some might say (certainly not me) opt out: pay the fine and go to jail. If you don't like the marijuana laws, "opt out," smoke, and pay the fine. And so it goes.

2. The political arena.

ObamaCare was the best thing that ever happened for talk show hosts and bloggers. 

3. The investing arena.

ObamaCare was a godsend for corporate America. The military noted more than 20 years ago that health care was strangling the defense department. It was anticipated that more money would be spent on health care for retirees than on bombers if things didn't change. For the military things have not changed (it's a political thingy), but that was a wake-up call for corporate America. Corporate America needed a way to cost-shift health care from the CEO to the employee. They found a friend in Mr Obama. ObamaCare was the best thing that ever happened to corporate America in my investing lifetime. We'll start seeing those savings drop to the bottom line as early as next year. 

4. The "banana republic" arena. Level of cynicism with regard to US government has worsened with ObamaCare -- it simply makes the US look like a "banana republic" in the eyes of many.  Less than two weeks ago:

On a conference call with reporters Tuesday afternoon, officials at the Department of Health and Human Services insisted that March 31 is the firm deadline to sign up for Obamacare. "We have no plans to extend the open enrollment period," HHS official Julie Bataille said. "In fact, we don't actually have the statutory authority to extend the open enrollment period in 2014."

Never mind: the enrollment period, as of today -- has been extended by the President.

5. Big insurers are not "on the hook" for unlimited liability.

I was wrong on that one. It is true that ObamaCare does away with caps on annual medical expenses that can be incurred by the health care industry. It turns out that Mr Obama was a friend to Big Health in this regard also. If the expenses are too great, the federal government will assume responsibility. In other words, a bailout for Big Health insurers. See investing arena.

6. No pre-existing clause arena.

This is great news for those folks who don't want to live a healthy lifestyle. This seems to be one of the biggest weakest links in the program but chain-smoking Boehner probably got this one-liner in the bill -- don't penalize folks who want to smoke tobacco cigarettes, and down the line, marijuana will be legalized, and who knows, maybe Freudians will see legal cocaine again.

7. The end of "open seasons." It took me a long time to figure out what "open seasons" were all about.

 This was the period -- generally the last three calendar months of the year -- when insurers sent out new insurance premiums and policies. To be insured, one needed to sign up by the deadline. ObamaCare has been extended so many times, "open season" will soon go the way of the dodo bird, the rotary telephone, and the Tea Party. "Open season" doesn't make any sense. ObamaCare is the law of the law and once enrolled, it will simply be a matter of continuous enrollment once the act gets traction.

8. American work week.

Until ObamaCare came along, France was one of the few countries with a federally-defined/imposed workweek. I think the official work week for the French is 38 hours, though I'm sure there loopholes and waivers. With ObamaCare, the US federally-defined/imposed work week is now 30 hours. The implication of this official definition has been discussed for quite some time. One aspect that has not been discussed but has started to percolate: it's just a matter of time before employees are given overtime for any work provided over 30 hours. 

9. Three aspects of ObamaCare: a) corporate mandate (delayed except for the best parts); b) individual mandate (delayed except for the best parts); c) taxes on medical devices (lobbyists will manage). [March 27, 2014: "the individual mandate goes poof" -- WSJ]

10. If Congressional Republicans are upset about ObamaCare .... they control the House. The "silence of the House" speaks volumes. My hunch is deep down inside those inside the Beltway know ObamaCare saved corporate America. ObamaCare has resulted in no real change in the number of folks who have health insurance, except perhaps for the number of those on Medicare.