Sunday -- March 23, 2014

With regard to the Bakken, Sunday mornings are generally a bit slow, so I depend on items folks have sent in over the past few days that I have not had a chance to get to until now.

Don sends a link to an EIA link showing the monthly electric power generated by source from 2004 to January 2014. This is a nice link to keep. There must be a hundred story lines in that table. Even without a graph one can pretty much tell what is going on, but the graph makes it even easier. That particular link takes one to the average cost of fossil fuels per BTU, but you can grab any number of graphs. This one is for the cost of natural gas -- dramatic to say the least. Natural gas is about $5 / million BTUs.  The cost of coal hasn't changed much over the years: about $2.40 / million BTUs.

Interestingly enough, one cannot find a corresponding graph for the cost of renewable energy (wind, solar) -- I think it's impossible to sort that out with all the tax credits involved. But my hunch is that solar/wind is in the $20 / million BTUs (this is an old source, but I doubt a lot has changed in a relative manner); one only has to watch how utility bills have increased as use of wind/solar has increased (remember: cost of natural gas dropped from $12.50 / million BTUs in 2008 to under $5.00 last year and has been pretty stable since 2009. Has your utility bill dropped similarly, from $12.50 to $4.90 over the past five years? I doubt it. Natural gas dropped from $12.50 to $4.50; coal stayed flat; and your utility bill increased significantly, I bet.

Anyway, enough of this. A lot of stories at that EIA link.

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This link will eventually be a stand-alone post. It's an incredible link. This link takes you to a 80-page scientific paper that discusses almost everything you could possibly want to know about fracking and the risk to the water table. Don't let the length of the article scare you off. References start on page 68, so that accounts for 12 pages, and there are a lot of graphics. My suggestion: go directly to the conclusions - the twelve points begin on page 67 and are written so that even a journalist can understand it. (I'm not sure if politicians or CNBC talking heads could understand the conclusions.)

This article explains why anti-fracking activist environmentalists (AFAE) are now shifting their attention from water table risks (because there are "none") and to earthquakes.

This link was sent by Dennis who sends  me a lot of great links. Thank you.

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The Los Angeles Times has a number of interesting stories today: possible wreckage from Malaysian airlines sighted; President Obama's trip to Europe to attend a G-7 meeting (the G-8 includes Russia); and, legalization of marijuana is finding new allies in conservatives.

The best story is "where are all the positive stories about Obamacare?" It's a great article: it demonstrates clearly that this reporter doesn't understand how insurance works, and/or if he/she did, chose to ignore reporting one very inconvenient truth. This article explains why a) individual premiums for health care are going to surge (again), this autumn); and ObamaCare will remain unworkable as it stands now. Again, these genies are out of the bottle and can't be put back in: a) no annual cap on medical expenses; and, b) no pre-existing conditions.

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I hope some regional newspaper does a full-color multi-page spread of the new recreation center in Williston. We get a bit of news on this game-changing facility from The Dickinson Press:

The $76 million facility, known as the Williston Area Recreation Center, (ARC) opens Friday on the campus of Williston State College. The 236,000-square-foot center has a water park, indoor turf field, golf simulator and other features expected to make it a regional attraction.

Parks and Recreation Director Darin Krueger said his full-time staff has grown from 13 at the end of 2012 to more than 40 today to keep up with the department’s growth and the new facility.

The ARC also has a large indoor playground, tennis courts, pitching simulator, 200-meter track that can host indoor meets, a hangout area for teens and rooms that can be rented for birthday parties and weddings.

The one data point that really reflects how big this facility is: 40 full-time staff members. 

At one time sales receipts in Williston totaled around $400 million quarterly. Assuming 1% of $400 million is $4 million, then $80 million/$4 million = 20 quarters, or five years to pay this off. That $400 million was back in 2011.

More recently, in the third quarter of 2013, taxable sales in Williston approached $1 billion (Williams County exceeded $1 billion). Again, assuming 1% of $1 billion = $10 million, then $80 million / $10 million = 8 quarters, or two years to pay for this facility.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors and my assumptions may be way off. 

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Worth a look.