Updates
September 1, 2014: Mark Perry, Carpe Diem, is reporting that 2008 - 2014 (six years) was a laboratory experiment in Keynesian economics. He says it was a gross failure and Keynesian economics is now dead. The good news: Keynesian economics is dead; a lot more people are now educated in economics. (In fact, I think Keynes argued for government stimulus as a short term response to a major recession/depression. I don't think he would have argued that it go on for a decade, which now seems like how long it will go.)
Later, 1:30 p.m. central time: FiscalTimes sees ObamaCare the same way I do in several respects -- a) haves and have nots; b) shopping blind -- one does not what one is buying when signing up (which hospitals accept your policy; which don't; c) largest e-commerce plan ever rolled out without beta-testing.
Later, 11:08 a.m. central time: I just got back from walking/running with my older granddaughter for her monthly "Fitness Friday." This afternoon, I will walk/run with my younger granddaughter. Classrooms score points for each lap each student earns. The students collect points from their family family members (parents, grandparents) who also run.
When I returned, I noted I had received e-mail and comments from folks regarding their concerns with ObamaCare.
A reader was concerned when she heard that the "surge" resulted in six million enrollees in the least few days. That headline was misleading. The total number enrolled, according to the government, is six million (the surge simply put them over "the top"). In fact, that was a fail: the original goal was 7 million (see Yahoo!Finance). And even 7 million was a huge fail. When Obama/Hillary were fighting it out for the nomination, they were talking about 30 million and, even, 46 million uninsured Americans. And, of course, those were lies, also. Be that as it may.
ObamaCare was never about insuring the uninsured. It was all about saving corporate America. I just talked about that earlier this week. This was a huge godsend for corporate America. In the investing arena, ObamaCare is a godsend. Investors will gain from this.
In the political arena, ObamaCare was a huge opportunity for fraud/scam/cronyism and politicians took advantage of the opportunity. If your Senator or representative failed to take advantage, shame on them.
In the macroeconomic arena, this was nothing more than Keynesian government stimulus -- something I would have known nothing about had I not read Sylvia Nasar's recent book. And this new stimulus money -- ObamaCare money will come just at the right time, just as the Fed continues tapering.
In the health arena, I don't know any sector in America that was so broken. Yes, the US had the greatest health care system in the world, but compared to all sectors in the US. the health care sector is really broken. Whether ObamaCare will make it worse/better, only time will tell. But already there are stories that nimble entrepreneurs are finding ways to improve the system. I'm not talking about the actual health care -- that was never broken. I'm talking about the administrative side and the bureaucratic side of medicine. I posted a story on that the other day. If I run across it again, I will link it here.
So much more, of course, could be written. I will continue to post ObamaCare stories, but I'm taking a page from JFK: I'm not worrying about things I cannot change. But as an investor, I am looking for some very positive things to come out of ObamaCare.
The Yahoo!Finance story linked above says taxpayers are on the hook for $1.6 trillion. I can't get my arms around huge numbers. I don't even know how accurate $1.6 trillion is. So, let's compare $1.6 trillion with other big numbers. Corporate America holds $1.5 trillion in cash. (And a lot of corporations could hold more cash if they so desired). The GDP for the US is over $17 trillion.
For me, reading Sylvia Nasar's book has helped me put a lot of this into perspective. A lot of very, very smart folks invest in the market. A lot of very, very smart folks have been following the ObamaCare story. ObamaCare recently celebrated its fourth anniversary. It was hard not to make 30% in one's mutual fund in 2014. The market is even for the year right now but it certainly seems poised to have another good year. I think the oil and gas sector will be quite remarkable 1Q14 (Jan - Mar, 2014). It's just hard for me to believe that the market would be doing this well if ObamaCare was as big a threat as some folks suggest it will be.
I am not a supporter of ObamaCare. I detest the whole way it was legislated and executed. But I feel very, very comfortable, corporate American is going to do very, very well under ObamaCare. As an investor, that trumps my political / emotional anxiety and worrying about things I cannot change.
Rush Limbaugh says ObamaCare is all about "transfer of wealth." He is correct. It is a transfer of wealth from non-investors to investors (as corporate America cost shifts employees over to ObamaCare). But Rush doesn't mean that: he means a transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor. That's not particularly new: much of what our government does is transferring wealth from rich to the poor. The question is to what extent and whether it's good or bad.
Original Post
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Disclaimer
Again for newbies: I post a lot of stuff -- new stand-alone posts as well as updating older posts in a short period of time. I expect there will be a lot of typographical errors that I will find/correct later.
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Just heard that Obamacare had a surge in enrollments and hit 6million---curious have you seen if the surge is due to the fact that by starting an app and checking a box that you can't afford it (or whatever the new rule is) that they are counting those people as having started to enroll? I am having a hard time believing that a surge happened in the last week--especially since Tuesday. And, since we know there seems to be a problem with how things get counted, I now wonder if Obama/Sebilius decided to announce the extention/no penalty in order to get those "checkmarks" to pump up the numbers :-)
ReplyDeleteThat was the headline: that headline was in error. The "surge" put them over the top -- put them at 6 million. But it was a failure; the original goal was 7 million. When they couldn't meet that goal, they lowered it to 6 million. Also, enrollment has nothing to do with paying for insurance. Paying for insurance has nothing to do with the "right" kind of people signing up. If the 6 million are all "high risk" (cancer, AIDS, HIV, heart transplants, kidney dialysis) the taxpayer's bill will be huge. And I wouldn't worry about that either. I'll post a blog explaining why I'm not a bit worried.
DeleteHere's the link to the 6 million signed up that failed to meet the 7 million.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-million-enrolled-white-house-204200720.html
And remember, the original number during the Obama/Hillary nomination process was anywhere from 30 million to 46 million uninsured Americans.
ObamaCare was never about 30 million uninsured Americans. It was all about saving corporate America (which I've blogged about) and politicians took advantage of it in various ways.
http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2014/03/horizontal-revolution-eor/
ReplyDeleteArticle is about injecting Natural gas back into formation to recover more oil. Imagine Salt dome storage in North Dakota. Use for EOR and reduce flaring rarely do you get a win win like that. This should add value to the willingness to store more Natural gas.
Brian, that's an incredible story. Thank you. You will see it as a stand-alone post, shortly. Again, than you for taking time to write.
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