Are People Paying Attention? I Wasn't ---

--- that's not meant to be snide or "holier-than-though" -- "are people paying attention?" I missed it, too, not so much because I wasn't paying attention or that I didn't read it, but because I couldn't understand it; I couldn't get my arms around. It is beyond what I can imagine.

The point is that the numbers coming out of the Bakken are absolutely staggering. Let's pretend this is 2015 -- that's only a year from now.

2025 is ten years from 2015. Ten years is not all that far down the road. The Bakken boom began in Montana fourteen years ago (2000) and seven years ago in North Dakota (2007).

All that is background to this one data point from the recent MDU presentation:

• Natural gas, current, about 280 mmcf/d; base case 2,700 mmcf/d; high case 3,900 mmcf/d by 2025.

Think about that. I don't know what 280 mmcf/day means, but whatever it means, just one company, MDU, will be producing ten times that amount of natural gas from the Bakken in the "worse case scenario" in less than ten years. It could be much more. 

The geographic footprint of the Bakken is not very big. Right now, in the big scheme of things, it's most of Williams County, much of McKenzie County, half of Mountrail County, and half of Dunn County. There may be about six natural gas processing plants in that footprint right now. To manage ten times, and maybe more, of natural gas production, it's gonna take a lot of natural gas processing plants. (Yes, I know about the Whiting southern ops in Stark/Billings counties.)

It begs the next question, the next thought, but I better stop there before I get myself in trouble.

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Speaking of Paying Attention

I've blogged about this from the very beginning. With regard to ObamaCare there is a lot of white noise out there -- coming from both sides of the aisle. I post some of those stories, but for me, the proof in the pudding will be a) the earnings reports for the health insurers for 3Q14, 4Q14, and 1Q15; and, b) the 2015 insurance premiums that will be announced in October, 2014. 

The tea leaves tell me four things with regard to the 2015 health premiums that are scheduled to be announced in October:

• the Obama administration will delay the open season for 2015 (and forbid the new premiums to be released prior to the election)
• by executive order, 2015 health care premiums will be capped at 2014 levels
• the subsidies will be significantly increased
• individual mandate (already "unofficially" delayed) will be "officially" delayed

The Hill is already reporting:

Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.

The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.

The industry complaints come less than a week after Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius sought to downplay concerns about rising premiums in the healthcare sector. She told lawmakers rates would increase in 2015 but grow more slowly than in the past.

“The increases are far less significant than what they were prior to the Affordable Care Act,” the secretary said in testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Her comment baffled insurance officials, who said it runs counter to the industry’s consensus about next year. 

You can believe an Obama appointee, Ms Sebelius, or you can ignore the industry. One has to be wrong. I don't know which one, but like you, I can guess.

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That Is The Future, Here's The Past

The Daily Caller is reporting:

Health insurance premiums have risen more after Obamacare than the average premium increases over the eight years before it became law, according to the private health exchange eHealthInsurance.

The individual market for health insurance has seen premiums rise by 39 percent since February 2013, eHealth reports. Without a subsidy, the average individual premium is now $274 a month. Families have been hit even harder with an average increase of 56 percent over the same period — average premiums are now $663 per family, over $426 last year. [By the way, $275/month is a great bargain for the best medical care in the world, or $665/month for a family. It's that $6,000 annual, individual deductible that stings.]

Between 2005 and 2013, average premiums for individual plans increased 37 percent and average family premiums were upped 31 percent. So they have risen faster under Obamacare than in the previous eight years.

An important caveat is that eHealth’s prices don’t include subsidies, so the prices for anyone earning between 100 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level will be lower. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has repeatedly claimed patients will pay as little as $18 per month, without noting the taxpayer cost.

"... without noting the taxpayer cost." Minor point. LOL.

So, if everything works out, the insurers will a) make money, hand over fist, because the government will make up the difference through subsidies); and, b) not require a bailout.

But, if something does not work out -- like a) not enough people enroll; or, b) the "wrong" type of people enroll, the insurers a) will take a "haircut," or a "bath"; and, b) demand a bailout.

By the way, the "bailout" is part of the ObamaCare law. ObamaCare guarantees that the government will be the "backstop" for any "significant" losses beyond the control of the health care industry. Sort of like a "force majeure" in the oil and gas industry. Websites that don't work should be considered a "force majeure" by any reasonable person.

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Speaking of Trainwrecks

Has it been two weeks without a Bakken crude oil train derailment? Knock on wood.

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Today's Celebrity Schedule

Ms Sebelius: US speaking tour --health insurance premiums will increase in 2015

Mr Biden: NATO speaking tour -- reassuring US allies 

Mr Kerry: global speaking tour -- global warming
Michelle: Chinese vacation -- with children, no press corps -- 100% vacation

Mr Putin: redrawing the world map

Mr Obama: filling out his NCAA "March Madness" basketball brackets

Oh, Mr Gore, you ask? Al Gore has an unexpected free day. The "global warning" conference he was scheduled to speak at was canceled due to snow/cold weather.