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Thursday, January 23, 2014

Scientific Study Which Helps Explain Production Differences Across The Bakken

A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending "us" a superb presentation on the geological and technological aspects and their influence on production in the Bakken. The study comes from the Colorado School of Mines; the presentation is very current, dated May 2, 2013, but the results are based on older wells. The link will take you to a PDF:

Slide 8 is particularly interesting for many reasons. The graphic shows the average EUR among ten (10) subdivisions in the Bakken, based on township boundaries. The average EURs (in 1,000's; 2010 to 2011):
  • Sanish Parshall: 632
  • Ft Berthold: 569
  • Bear Den: 536
  • South Nesson: 506
  • Rough Rider: 466
  • Bailey: 459
  • Elm Coulee (Montana): 433 (2001 - 2003 data)
  • North Nesson: 393
  • Mondak: 283
  • St Demetrius: 209
The data on number of frack stages vs those subdivisions seems to be inconclusive.

Data regarding type of proppant used:
  • Sand: 614 wells
  • Sand and ceramic: 78 wells
  • Ceramic only: 74 wells
Based on a very limited data set, a mixture of 2/3rds sand and 1/3rd ceramic appears more effective than either along.

The maturity boundary of the Bakken/Three Forks:
  • northern boundary: eastern half of Divide County
  • eastern boundary: splits Mountrail County in half; diagonally splits Dunn County in half
  • southeastern boundary: includes the western third of Stark County
  • western boundary: well into Montana; off of Williams, McKenzie, Billings, and Golden Valley counties inside the boundary limits
With the commentary, I am unable to interpret data on slide 18 which investigates whether the Parshall is self-sources, or a result of migration.

Slide 19 is one of the more interesting slides: graphic depicting oil / oil + water.

Slide 20 is also interesting: the sweet spots / uneconomic spots tend to correlate with oil / oil +water.

Slide 22 should satisfy mineral owners to the east of Williston and explain why Stockyard Creek has been such a good field. Epping field should also be a great field.

Slide 23: back to oil / oil +water. Elm Coulee ≠ Bear Den ≠ Rough Rider.

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