Status Of Permits Issued In Calendar Year 2009; Ice In Dallas

Status of permits issued in calendar year, 2009.

Number of permits issued: 625

First permit: #17946

Last permit: #18570

Number of permits canceled (PNC): 72 (12%) In addition, two permits expired. 

Number of wells still on confidential list: 10

Number of wells on "DRL" status: 4

There were eight DRY wells; not all of them were Bakken wells.

Four wells are currently "inactive." Most of these wells will probably return to production. 

Four wells were abandoned (AB). 

Two wells temporarily abandoned.

One "WI" well.

One "loc" permit: permit only, no activity at the site.
IPs

• 517 wells reported IPs.

• Greater than 3,000 bbls: 9
• 2,000 to 2,999 bbls: 44
• 1,000 to 1,999 bbls: 128
• 750 to 999 bbls: 79
• 500 to 749 bbls: 79
• 250 to 499 bbls: 97
• 100 to 249: 53

Although this number means absolutely nothing, the "average" IP worked out to 918 bbls.

Whiting clearly had the largest number of "high IP" wells. Whiting had 22 wells with IPs above 2000. BEXP (now Statoil) had 8 such wells. Anschutz (later OXY USA) had 5. 

Most surprising data point: almost every well that had an IP was still actively producing. Early on there was a lot of talk about poorly producing Bakken wells being abandoned. So far that has not happened. I think there may be some non-intuitive reasons why these wells are kept on-line. See this post. 

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Along with the analysis above, I noted the total production of each well as of October, 2013:

One well: 814,000 bbls

One well: 652,000 bbls

Five wells: 500,000 to 599,000 bbls (which included on Lodgepole well)

Ten wells: 400,000 to 499,000 bbls

37 wells: 300,000 to 399,000 bbls

115 wells: 200,000 to 299,000 bbls

226 wells: 100,000 to 199,000 bbls

Comment: look at the total production to date of these wells. The permits were let in 2009 and the majority of these wells were drilled/completed in 2010. These wells are less than three years old and out-producing Madison wells that produced for 30 years. Yes, the decline rate is horrible. So what. In two years, the wells paid for themselves; they out-produced Madison wells in tenth the time; and, then get this: they are mostly short laterals, relatively inexpensive (compared to later wells); and, they are going to keep producing for 30 more years. But there's a surprise coming, that will make these wells much more exciting than anyone can imagine.

Other comments: 

• most of these wells were done early on in the Bakken boom
• operators were still learning 
• the number of frack stages were at the lower end
• most of the wells were short laterals; the Whiting wells were the exception
• at this time, it was generally assumed that wells that reached 100,000 bbls had paid for themselves 
• there will be very few wells that won't pay for themselves on this list, and even with "poorly performing" wells, I think we are still in for a surprise

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See also:

• Update on status of 2012 NDIC oil and gas permits
• Update on status of 2011 NDIC oil and gas permits
• Update of status of 2010 NDIC oil and gas permits

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A Note to the Granddaughters

I watched Hunger Games for the first time ever tonight -- on Blu-Ray. It was incredible.  I was not looking forward to watching it; the story line of children fighting to the death was not something I wanted to watch.

However, this is why "the movie" worked. The "children" were all 18 years or older. The same age as men and women fighting against each other in Afghanistan. So, are they children? It depends on one's perspective. For sure, in the 21st century, childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood are delayed/prolonged.

Young adults, now well into their late 20's and even early 30's are still living with their parents, as children. Interestingly enough, the delayed/prolonged childhood has been legitimized by Obamacare which requires that children up to age 26 be allowed to remain on their parents' health care insurance policies.

I was impressed that the director minimized scenes of violence; most was left to one's imagination. It is PG-13 and appropriately so. Highly recommend it. If you see it on DVD, be sure to see the Blu-Ray version with all the extras and special features.