Two Big Data Points You Will Be Reading About If Shutdown Lasts More Than Two Weeks

1. This story was posted earlier. Without the bureaucrats in place and without the staff support, no work is being done on the debt ceiling bil that needs to be addressed sometime this month. The original date was October 17, 2013, when the government would run out of "cash on hand" to pay the bills. But with 800,000 furloughed federal workers that date could be pushed a bit to the right. But at some point, even with 800,000 less folks to pay and billions in government contracts that will not be pad, at some point the government will run out of "cash on hand" to pay its bills. It will be in default. It's very possible, Congress could focus on the "drop dead" date and miss an earlier deadline when the bill to raise the debt limit must be written and start the process of working its way through Congress. I doubt Congress will simply show for a voice vote on "October 17, 2013" to raise the debt limit.

2. The second story you will be reading about if the shutdown lasts more than two weeks. I would wager that there is only one group more powerful than the NRA (the National Rifle Association) and that would be the military veterans, which manifests its strength through the Veterans Administration. Funding the VA may be the tipping point with regard to see who blinks first. Opening the national parks, I do not believe, will be a rallying call for this shutdown to end.

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I was getting ready to post those two stories when I lost wi-fi connectivity and had to ride my bike to another wi-fi location. When I signed back on, I found this story:

The "panic point": what will drive Congress to make a deal.

I didn't view the video, but based on the teaser I know where the discussion was going. I agree with the analyst. What concerns me are missing deadlines. I still think that the president does not want his legacy to be the first president to let the US default, but I wouldn't put that past him to make a point.

Later, there are already signs some traders are starting to bet on a debt ceiling not being raised .. at least right away.