Monday

Active rigs: 182

RBN Energy: the condensate dilemma, part 2, demand.

Supplies from the three main branches of the US condensate family are increasing faster than demand can keep up. Field condensate production from shale basins is nearing 1 MMb/d - headed to 1.6 MMb/d by 2018. 

Plant condensate – aka natural gasoline - will increase from just over 0.3 MMb/d in 2013 to more than 0.5 MMb/d in 2018. 

Because field condensates cannot be exported to overseas markets, more of this material will be refined traditionally or using a splitter – pushing out existing refinery demand for natural gasoline and creating an excess of naphtha range material. 

Petrochemical demand for natural gasoline has dried up in the face of cheap ethane feedstocks. Canadian demand for natural gasoline as diluent will soak up some but not the entire natural gasoline surplus. With US gasoline demand declining, the only outlet for excess naphtha and natural gasoline will be more exports (beyond Canada). Today we look at changing condensate demand patterns.

Hard to believe, huh?

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 The Wall Street Journal

Lying, incompetent, or insubordinate subordinates? President O'Bama said he did not know that his government had been spying on our allies for the past three years (since 2010). Lotsa fun. Talk radio did note that President O'Bama did kill Osama bin Laden singlehandedly. I don't recall that. I only recall that he flew the first of two helicopters into the compound; Michelle was piloting the second helicopter. Don't quote me on that; it's just what I recall at the time. But that was a long time ago.

American cities' fiscal health lagging behind other sectors as recovery slowly takes place. I follow the fiscal health of troubled cities at Doomsday: US Cities.

Apparently Ms Sebelius outsourced the plan to multiple underlings. As it becomes clear that no sole leader oversaw the health law's online exchange, the accounts of more than a dozen current and former officials show how a disjointed bureaucracy led to the site's disastrous launch.

Well, this is great news for ObamaCare: Some states are signing up tens of thousands of new Medicaid enrollees in the initial weeks of the health law's rollout, while placing far fewer in private health insurance. Predictable.

No articles on Syria in the front section of the on-line edition.

Apple Inc will report earnings after market close today. Ahead of the Tape: Analysts covering Apple routinely aim too low in making their earnings estimates, but earnings "beats" don't translate reliably into stock-market gains. I can hardly wait.

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On The Road Again

It should be a great day for blogging, assuming truck stops and McDonald's all have free wi-fi. I left the heart of the Bakken, Williston, North Dakota, at 2:30 a.m., central time, and set the cruise control for 50 mph. I had to pull over several times to let truckers pass. I enjoyed the scenery -- lit up oil rigs, and a few huge flares.

I debated whether to stop for coffee in Watford City, but knowing that the next stop would be an hour or so down the road, Belfield, elected to stop. Nice conversation with young man from Austin, Texas. He has been in the Bakken for four months. His plan is to work here for one year to build up cash reserve for his next step/stop in life. He didn't say what that was.

I cannot begin to tell the stories of all the wonderful folks in the Bakken, the retired old-timers, the working life-long residents, and all the new arrivals. I think my biggest thrill came almost as soon as I arrived in the Bakken: learning about a new subculture in the oil patch, the pipeliners. Maybe I will write about that story some day.

I arrived at the Belfield truck stop -- I guess it's called "SuperPumpers -- that's on the coffee cup -- about an hour ago. I was one of the few here, but now, at 5:13 a.m. local time, it is really getting busy, really busy. If you haven't seen a boom, it's impossible -- at least for me -- to describe. But here we are, in the middle of nowhere, at the crossroads of I-94 and US Highway 85, and it's about as busy as a big-city Starbucks at 7:00 a.m. It looks like 96% men, 3% women, 1% other stopping in to get morning breakfast. Morning breakfast appears to be two cups of "30% more caffeine" coffee, a can or two of Red Bull, some hot Mexican burritos or doughnuts, and then out the door. Some, maybe most, are also picking up provisions for the rest of the day: six-packs of water; more Red Bull; food that comes in cellophane from out-of-state (and maybe from out-of-country).

I am continually amazed how friendly the cashiers are wherever I stop. I left the store momentarily to go back out to the car -- I had not bought anything, yet -- and the young female cashier wished me a "good day." I told her I would be back in a few minutes, getting something from the car. She seemed genuinely happy to hear that. Her day will go by very, very quickly.

The traffic should die down a big going south toward Bowman. Most of the oil activity is east/west of this truck stop (Dickinson area; Whiting Pronghorn prospect) and then north into the heart of the Bakken.