For The Archives: Random DOE Update On Global Coal, Wind

Updates

April 20, 2014: is reporting -- Yahoo!News is reporting -- 

The provincial government has spent $5 million to put in place the infrastructure as it seeks to transform the desolate area into one of the world's largest solar power parks, capable one day of generating up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity.

The desert park in Bahawalpur district is the latest scheme to tackle the rolling blackouts which have inflicted misery on people and strangled economic growth.

Temperatures can reach 50 degrees Celsius (120 Fahrenheit) in the country's centre in June and July, sending demand for electricity soaring and leaving a shortfall of around 4,000 MW.

"In phase one, a pilot project producing 100 MW of electricity will hopefully be completed by the end of this year," Imran Sikandar Baluch, head of the Bahawalpur district administration, told AFP.

"After completion of the first 100 MW project, the government will invite investors to invest here for the 1,000 megawatts."

One has to read quite a ways into the article to find out the rest of the story:

Work has also begun on a pilot 660 megawatt coal-fired plant in Gadani, a small town on the Arabian Sea. Another 600 megawatt coal plant has also been given the go-ahead in the southern city of Jamshoro.

But while coal may offer a short-term fix to the energy crisis, authorities are keen to move to cleaner electricity in the long run.

Short-term fix? I doubt anyone is building a coal-fired plant for less than 20 years of use. Who are they trying to kid? Politically correct thing to say, though.

Original Post

Tracking the new coal-fired power plants: excellent PDF from National Energy Technology Laboratory. A big "thank you" to Don for sending me the PDF.

Dated January 13, 2012; data updated January 13, 2012). This is from the Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning.

Some data points.

Implementation of capacity significantly less than proposed capacity; for example, in 2008, 64 GW of new coal-fired plants were proposed; that estimate was continually downgraded and by 2012, actual amount of capacity implemented: 16 gigawatts (assuming I am reading slide 5 correctly)

Number of announced closures of coal-powered plants will exceed number of new plants.

History:

• In 2008: about 1.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2009: about 1.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2010: almost 7.0 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2011: back to 1.5 GW (war on coal; natural gas surge)
• In 2012: almost 5.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity will be added
• After 2018: nothing has been proposed

Slide 10 is most interesting: after a steady decline in coal capacity, 2010 was the largest build since 1985; after that it dropped off significantly.

Slide 16 compares China with the US.

How does the 1.5 to 7 GW of coal-generated electricity compare to China? The build rate in 2013:

• 28 GW operational in China; 0 GW operational build rate in the US
• 20 GW under construction in China; 0 GW under construction in the US

So, assuming I am reading the chart correctly,

• the build rate for coal-fired plants in China for 2013: 48 GW
• the build rate for coal-fired plants in the US for 2013: 0 GW

Slide 23: proposed US new capacity -- wind

• 2012: 55GW
• 2013: 28 GW
• 2014: 15 GW
• 2015: 11 GW
• 2016: 8 GW
• 2017: 2 GW

A lot of story lines in that presentation. Global story: King Coal is not dead. CO2 emissions from coal will continue to decrease in the US, while rising exponentially in China.