Thursday Morning News, Views, And Links -- Part II

Active rigs: 181 (steady; nearing the post-boom low of 179)

RBN Energy: discusses the impact of the international events on the price of oil --

If the Gulf Coast refining party is “over” that means refiners will reduce their refinery crude throughputs (still over 93 percent in the Gulf Coast PADD 3 region as reported by EIA for the week ended September 6, 2013) rather than lose money processing crude at a loss. Reduced refinery demand will place downward pressure on crude prices just as more domestic and Canadian supplies are arriving at refinery gates via new pipelines and rail terminals. Since the US will still be reliant on imported crude for a few more years yet, crude prices here are likely to keep pace with international levels. In that case the only piece of the puzzle that can keep US refiners and producers happy is higher refined product prices to restore better refining margins. Higher product prices in turn could dampen US demand and reduce refinery runs further. US consumers will not be happy campers either.

All of which confirms the extent to which the US crude oil market continues to be closely linked to international events – with all the attendant risks that entails. Crude price shocks like those caused by the Syrian crisis are to be expected for the time being. We can at least though, look forward to a time not too far in the future when US crude oil production gets close to meeting demand (especially if you include Canadian supplies). At that point the impact of events in the Middle East may have considerably less impact on domestic markets.

War, What Is It Good For? Edwin Starr

I had forgotten this was a hit song in 1969. Regular readers know that "1969" was absolutely the best year for music. I talk about it at this site. Don't go to that site or open it; it will slow down your computer to unbelievably slow speed unless you have incredibly fast wi-fi. Just a warning.

Of course, Edwin was wrong. War is good for those who trade (as in, buy and sell) oil and oil futures. And if you watched "Golden Triangle, I and II" in 1984/1985 Miami Vice you would also know that was was good for the opium trade.

But I digress.