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Thursday, September 26, 2013

Early Morning Links, Views, News, And Links; 2 Million BOPD -- Goldman Sachs Must Have Just Read The Bentek Study

Futures point to a higher opening; oil is holding its own, about $103, which is just a bit higher than the sweet spot of $91 to $100/bbl.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Earlier this week, shares of some Bakken operators surged based on recommendations from Goldman Sachs. One reader noted that maybe Wall Street has finally discovered the Bakken. It's only been 13 years since the Bakken boom began in Montana, and six years since the boom began in North Dakota.

Here is more evidence that Wall Street might have found the Bakken. Seeking Alpha is reporting: Bakken oil producers begin to outperform the market.
Bakken oil producers Kodiak Oil & Gas, Whiting Petroleum, Continental Resources, and Oasis Petroleum  have really taken off in September and have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 2.5x over the past three months.
Upcoming Q3 earnings are expected to ride the wave of growing production and recent higher oil prices. In addition, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted Bakken production growth will exceed Wall Street expectations. The seemed to put pep-in-the-step of the group.
The Goldman report published a curve showing sharp production growth in the Bakken will continue until production levels off around 2 million bpd in the 2023 timeframe. Note the three benches of the Three Forks will be significant contributors to overall production growth over the next 10 years.
Yesterday, RBN Energy suggested the Bakken was on its way to one million bopd. Now, Goldman Sachs is suggesting 2 million bopd by 2023..

Folks might want to take a look at the Bentek study again (it is at the sidebar at the right). That was posted quite awhile ago. Bentek's conclusions: oil production will climb to 2.2 million bopd and gross gas production will top 3 billion cubic feet/day by the end of 2022.

Whether the Bakken reaches one million bopd or not, it is no longer a drilling issue. The roughnecks and frack teams can easily get us to that threshhold. Whether we do or don't is all geopolitical. 

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