Does MDW Have A Prediction When North Dakota Will Go Over One Million BOPD: Before Or After Next Spring Thaw?

I went out on a limb back in June, 2013, when I suggested "we" would go over 875,000 bopd by the end of August.

I'm not going to predict any more (at least for now). There are too many factors beyond the control of the roughnecks and the frack teams.

Clearly, if given the opportunity, the roughnecks and frack teams would take us over one million bopd before the end of the year; they have the talent and the equipment. They are completing more wells than ever each month.

One can look at the history and project for themselves when certain thresholds might be hit. I provide the data here.

Note that winter and the spring thaw are not as problematic as some folks make it out to be. This is the data for winter/spring, 2012 (A = actual). Note: not one month during the late winter/spring thaw has there been a decrease in production in either 2012 or 2013:

February, 2012: 593,702 (increase of 2.2% from previous month)
March, 2012: 580,413 (3.76% increase from previous month)
April, 2012: 611,329 (5.33% increase from previous month)
May, 2012: 644,345 (5.40% increase from previous month)
June, 2012: 664,475 (3.12% increase from previous month)

This is the data for winter/spring, 2013, the wettest North Dakota spring on record):

February, 2013: 779149 (increase of 5.57% from previous month)
March, 2013: 783184 (0.52% increase from previous month)
April, 2013: 793852 (1.29% increase from previous month)
May, 2013: 810129 (2.05% increase from previous month)
June, 2013: 821598 (1.42% increase from previous month)

Disclaimer: again, I often make simple math errors and I did not check the above for typographical errors. Go to the source to fact-check my figures. If I have incorrect data, I will correct it if alerted.

There are a couple of story lines here one can see immediately.