Now It's Peak Oil Demand

The Washington Post is reporting:

For years, there’s been lots of debate over “peak oil” — the notion that, at some point in the near future, the rate of global oil production will bump up against a hard ceiling. This is generally considered a gloomy prospect.

But another, related concept has started to bubble up in energy discussions lately. It’s the notion of peak oil demand.

The article looks at two competing views:

• Citi think the world’s thirst for oil could peak in a few years at around 92 million barrels per day (the gray-blue scenario) — as long as vehicle efficiency for cars and trucks keeps improving by about 2.5 percent per year
• BP expects global oil demand to keep growing from 89 million barrels per day today to around 104 million barrels per day by 2030

This would make a great poll, but polls on something that far out are not all that interesting.

The article gives passing mention to China's automobile demand.

The most interesting data point for me: no one seems to be predicting that demand for oil will actually drop below 92 million bopd.

Note the statistic in the linked article above:

• Citi think the world’s thirst for oil could peak in a few years at around 92 million barrels per day

Memo to Citi: the world will be already be consuming 92 million bopd next year.

Global consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, to 92 million next year, the Paris-based adviser to energy-consuming nations said today in its monthly market report. The expansion is 100,000 barrels a day less than last month, when the estimate for 2014 was first introduced. Refinery operating rates will ease after a record surge in July, the IEA said.