The 2014 Predictions Begin -- OPEC, IEA Predictions For 2014

Rigzone is reporting:

“Oil demand is surging and commodities are on a tear … adding to a buying frenzy. Oil supply will outstrip acceleration in demand growth next year as production outside of OPEC expands at the fastest pace in 20 years.” -- analyst

OPEC: non-OPEC supply will grow faster than demand in 2014. Demand for OPEC petroleum will fall further.

OPEC's Observations and Predictions

 

Global demand

• global oil demand growth has returned to 2010 levels
  

OECD

• 0.4 million bopd decline in 2013
• 0.2 million bopd decline in 2014

Non-OECD

• will continue to drive demand growth
• growth of 1.2 million bopd

China

• oil use will climb by 3.3 percent to 10.4 million barrels a day in 2014
• a similar percentage gain to that predicted for this year  (3.3% increase predicted for 2013)

IEA's Observations and Predictions

Source: Platts

The International Energy Agency has painted a picture of softer market fundamentals in 2014, but gone to lengths to point out a number of intangibles which could ultimately derail its latest predictions.

Fleshing out for the first time its oil market forecasts for 2014, the IEA believes the US’ shale oil boom will continue to underpin surging non-OPEC supply next year.

Non-OPEC oil production should increase by more than 1.3 million b/d in 2014, the highest growth in 20 years, with US crude production alone making up 530,000 b/d of the growth forecast, the IEA forecast in its latest monthly report this week.

The two-decade peak in oil output growth from non-OPEC producers will outpace global demand growth and continue to dent OPEC’s share of the global oil market, it said.