That Needle In The Haystack

I'm still trying to locate the hype that folks say characterized the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.

From The Oil Drum, which is calling it quits:

Even drawing back the curtains of hype over the Bakken and Eagle Ford production [insert "LOL" here], which Rune and Art have so ably done, can only be written about at a certain low frequency before folk see it as repetitious.

Recoverable oil: the "hype":

The 1995 estimate of Bakken recoverable oil: 151 million bbls.

From the 2008 USGS report:

North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.

A U.S. Geological Survey assessment, released April 10 shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency's 1995 estimate of 151 million barrels of oil.

From the 2013 USGS report:

The 2013 USGS report: doubled again to 7.4, and perhaps as much as 11.4, billion bbls. And this is a conservative estimate; it does not include the TF2, TF3, and TF4.

11.4 billion bbls is back where we were in 1974; see below.

Bonus paid for mineral acres in the Bakken:

1980s: $50/acre
2012: $14,000/acre 

Too many links to post regarding OPECs concern about burgeoning US shale oil production.

From wiki:

A landmark paper by Dow and a companion paper by Williams (1974) recognized the Bakken formation as a major source for the oil produced in the Williston Basin. These papers suggested that the Bakken was capable of generating 10 billion barrels (1.6×10⁹ m³) of oil (BBbls). Webster (1982, 1984) as part of a Master’s thesis at the University of North Dakota further sampled and analyzed the Bakken and calculated the hydrocarbon potential to be about 92 BBbls. These data were updated by Schmoker and Hester (1983) who estimated that the Bakken might contain a resource of 132 BBbls of oil in North Dakota and Montana. A research paper by USGS geochemist Leigh Price in 1999 estimated the total amount of oil contained in the Bakken shale ranged from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels (8.00×10¹⁰ m³), with a mean of 413 billion barrels (6.57×10¹⁰ m³).While others before him had begun to realize that the oil generated by the Bakken shales had remained within the Bakken, it was Price, who had spent much of his career studying the Bakken, who particularly stressed this point. If he was right, the large amounts of oil remaining in this formation would make it a prime oil exploration target.  

I don't see the hype. Some folks have been talking about 10 billion bbls of recoverable oil from the Bakken as far back as 1974, and it seems the current projections confirm that. As noted, the 2013 USGS survey estimates as much as 11.4 billion bbls.

And, of course, we don't even need to review

• the huge amount of money flowing into the Bank of North Dakota because of the Bakken
• the resurgence of the US rail industry because of the Bakken
• the re-emergence of at least three east coast refineries because of the Bakken
• the complete "re-alignment" of the US pipeline infrastructure because of the Bakken
• saving Canada's bacon -- the Tioga/Hess/ethane story -- all because of the Bakken

Call it hype, but every prediction seems to be coming true. Meanwhile, The Oil Drum calls it quits. Folks don't quit reading something because it becomes repetitious; they quit reading when it lacks credibility.

I believe the #1 book still sold in America is the Bible, and its message hasn't changed in 2,000 years.

That needle in the haystack: can anyone point me to a legitimate source that has predicted more than 11.4 billion bbls of technically recoverable oil form the Bakken, which is now the USGS's prediction (the high end of the range), other than the wiki references above?

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This does not make sense. This convicted felon is not allowed to have guns, but yet it sounds like someone wants him for killing a 4-y/o and he is now considered armed and dangerous. One would think that if he was not allowed to have a gun, this should not have happened. Of course, the bigger question is how does a 25 y/o become a felon and released from jail at such a young age? I guess the felony did not carry that big a sentence.

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US food stamp program for Jamaicans, Haitians, and DomReps.

Food stamps are paying for trans-Atlantic takeout — with New Yorkers using taxpayer-funded benefits to ship food to relatives in Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Welfare recipients are buying groceries with their Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) cards and packing them in giant barrels for the trip overseas, The Post found.

The practice is so common that hundreds of 45- to 55-gallon cardboard and plastic barrels line the walls of supermarkets in almost every Caribbean corner of the city.
The feds say the moveable feasts go against the intent of the $86 billion welfare program for impoverished Americans.

Peanuts.