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Saturday, June 8, 2013

Update On The Niobrara For Investors -- Mike Filloon

From SeekingAlpha:
The Niobrara of the DJ Basin gets little press when compared to the Bakken and Eagle Ford. This play extends from Platte and Goshen counties in Wyoming to Elbert County in Colorado. I first covered this play in January of 2011, as Samson Oil and Gas made a huge discovery in Goshen County. This turned out to be an excellent trade as it sold this acreage to Chesapeake. It did not turn out well for Chesapeake, as it has struggled to develop this acreage. Goshen County is not the top prospect, as Wattenberg Field in Weld County, Colorado has been the outperformer. This stacked play is prospective the Niobrara A, Niobrara B, Niobrara C, Codell, and Greenhorn. The Niobrara B is in full development mode, while the other source rocks are currently being tested. I will cover this specific area, and provide reasons to invest in the top small cap operators in Wattenberg Field.
Bonanza Creek may be the best way to play this area. This was an IPO flop, but made some investors look like geniuses. Bill Costello, Portfolio Manager/Research Analyst at Westwood Holdings Group has been on this name, which is up over 100% over the past 12 months. It currently trades around $37/share, and looks to be headed to $45/share over the next 12 months. A recent EPS miss provided a buying opportunity, but the sell-off wasn't warranted as it reaffirmed annual production guidance. I recommended and bought the stock on April 16th at $34/share. I sold the position at just below $40/share. The stock is beginning to look attractive again.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you thought you read here. I do not follow the Niobrara. I post this information to help me understand the Bakken. 

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