Just How Effective Is Fracking (Radially)?

Early on, I suggested the "effectiveness" of fracking extends out no more than 500 feet radially. See this note posted back on October 11, 2011:

Somehow the conversation got around to "how many wells in a section?"

Of course that depends on how many formations one is talking about and how "good" the location is.

There is also the question of how effective fracturing is the farther one gets away from the borehole. I suggested that the general consensus is that fracturing is effective out to 500 feet laterally (500 foot radius, or 1,000 feet diametrically) suggesting 4 to 5 wells average across a 5,280-foot section line. Note: "general consensus" in previous sentence.

I suggested that it is very likely that fracturing is not necessarily effective that far out. I am way beyond my depth here, so it was just idle chatter. And then this: Coincidentally I see that "luckyone" elsewhere has opined the very same thing -- back on September 22, 2011. I don't recall reading that entry before (although I probably have) but the point is that there are at least a couple of us armchair observers suggesting that it may be as little as 300 feet laterally or radially. That is a game changer. I also think (and have previously posted) that the farther away from the well, the less effective the fracturing. And, of course, that is borne out by the number of reports in which not all stages were successfully fracked, and usually it is farther out than closer in.

Fast forward to May, 2013, and Oasis corporate presentation, slide #10. Oasis plans to:

• vary spacing distances to as low as 400 feet in certain areas (equates to 6 wells per formation in single spacing unit). [The link will take you to the current corporate presentation which will change over time; this refers to the May, 2013, Oasis presentation only.]

If that pans out, and there are four payzones in the "better" Bakken (middle Bakken, TF1, TF2, TF3), that could be as many as 24 wells in one spacing unit. [By the way, CLR has a graphic that suggests one could see as many as 40 wells in one spacing unit.]

24 x 300,000 = 7.2 million bbls/spacing unit @$50/bbl = $360 million/spacing unit.

By the way, contrary to some folks' early concern, there are now indications that fracking a "new" well actually improves the production of an older, neighboring well. Of course, the jury is still out on that, but it certainly makes common sense.