The Futility -- The Futilty -- Again; Domestic Crude Oil Production to Exceed Gross Imports By Year-End -- Oil & Gas Journal

Remember the first post with that subject, the futility, the futility -- the futility of paying attention to forecasts by EIA, IEA, OPEC, and others? One day "they" forecast oil demand will go up, the next day, they forecast it will go down.  Unless it's a fairly remarkable forecast, I'm starting to ignore them. But it's difficult.

Here's another one, from today. The headline says consumption will increase, but the lede says the consumption increase will be less than predicted just one month ago. Give me a break. The validity of the forecasts are suspect and even if they turn out to be true, the numbers hardly seem remarkable. Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:

In the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released Apr. 9, the US Energy Information Administration projected that world oil consumption will reach 90 million b/d in 2013 and 91.3 million b/d in 2014, lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared with last month’s STEO. World liquid fuels consumption in 2012 was 89 million b/d.

With new refining capacity coming online and investment expansion in the property market and infrastructure sector, refinery crude oil inputs in China are expected to increase in 2013. Due to weaker industrial indicators at the beginning of 2013, liquid fuels consumption in China is forecast to increase by 450,000 b/d in 2013 and by 510,000 b/d in 2014, compared with average annual growth of 540,000 b/d from 2004 through 2010. In 2012, liquid fuels consumption in China increased by 380,000 b/d in 2012, according to EIA’s estimate.

Liquid fuels consumption by members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell by 600,000 b/d in 2012. Projected OECD consumption will decline by an additional 400,000 b/d in 2013 and 200,000 b/d in 2014, EIA said.

On the supply side, EIA estimates that liquids production from countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2013 and by 1.6 million b/d in 2014. With continued production growth from US tight-oil formations and Canadian oil sands, North America drives almost all the projected growth in non-OPEC supply over the next 2 years.

There's way too much data to sort through at the moment, but if you are so inclined the linked article will keep you busy for the rest of the week.

As mentioned a gazillion times, one of the reasons I blog is to help me keep track of what's going. I finally figured out the big three on-shore oil plays in the US and mentioned them as my lead story at this past week's "Top Stories."

So, it was very rewarding to see the linked Oil & Gas Journal say the same thing today:

Over the next 2 years, drilling in tight oil plays in the onshore Williston, Western Gulf, and Permian basins will contribute to the rapid growth of US crude oil production. Projected production is expected to climb to 7.3 million b/d in 2013 and to 7.9 million b/d in 2014 from an average 6.5 million b/d in 2012. Growing domestic crude oil production has helped to lower crude oil imports. US crude oil gross imports are expected to be exceeded by domestic production as early as yearend.

Yes, those are the the big three -- the Williston Basin, the Western Gulf Basin, and the Permian Basin -- and I finally get it.

But did you notice what was slipped into the middle of that very long linked article? US crude oil gross imports are expected to be exceeded by domestic production as early as year-end. This year, folks, by the end of this year, domestic production could exceed gross imports and that would include Canadian imports, I suppose. I don't know if the EIA forecast is based on an approved Keystone XL or not.

Today's events in Boston should remind us this is a very dangerous world, folks are out to destroy the American way of life, and politicians need to get over their petty politics, and ensure the security of the US and its allies. And part of that includes a safe and secure oil and gas industry, and that includes big pipelines, like the Sandpiper and the Keystone XL.