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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Jobless Claims Rise; Nothing to Worry About -- Reuters; This Is The "New-Normal"; Minnesota: Worse, But Still In Line With National Trends

Jobs report. Let's see who reports first: Drudge Report, Yahoo, AP, Reuters, Bloomberg.

I believe I saw analysts expected a number of 350,000 on CNBC this a.m. but saw it briefly; could be wrong.

Remember, 400,000 is the magic number. Need to stay below 400,000.

And it looks like it was Reuters, first to report

This week: 352,000 (last week was revised upward to 348,000; the original number was 346,000).

Four-week moving average rises: 361,250 (up from previous week which was 358,500).

States with increase in claims of more than 1,000 (some numbers rounded):
  • New York (20,000; the state doesn''t allow fracking); North Carolina (4,400); Ohio (3,000); Michigan (2,900), and Texas (2,500).
States with a decrease in claims:
  • California (13,000, the state allows fracking); Pennsylvania (1,300, the state allows fracking)
So now, we wait for the spin.

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Business Insider: it could have been worse.
The latest weekly initial unemployment claims report is out, and it's a bit worse than expected.  
Claims climbed to 352,000 from 348,000 a week ago.

Economists were looking for a reading of 350,000.

While disappointing, there was nothing too worrisome about the report.

Some may actually be encouraged by the fact that claims are increasingly being impacted by the sequester. In other words, people are glad things aren't any worse.
Reuters (interesting: first report to show that numbers for California and Kentucky are again estimated).
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, which could further allay fears of a major setback in the labor market recovery.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 352,000 the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's number was revised to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported. A Labor Department analyst said claims for California and Kentucky had been estimated.
Despite the increase last week, which was broadly in line with economists' expectations, claims held near a level economists normally associate with average monthly job gains of more than 150,000. That could help to further ease concerns of a deterioration in labor market conditions after nonfarm payrolls posted their smallest increase in nine months in March.
The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 2,750 to 361,250.
The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 35,000 to 3.07 million in the week ended April 6.
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Minnesota

A little bit closer to home, the StarTribune is reporting on Minnesota's numbers:
Minnesota's endless winter helped cool off the job market in March, as employers cut 5,200 jobs, a sharp dip after seven straight months of gains. 
The monthly jobs report, issued Thursday by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, also showed that February gains were less robust than initially thought, revised downward from 14,500 jobs to 9,900
Construction and weather-sensitive restaurant and retail hiring was weak compared to March 2012, said Steve Hine, the state's labor market economist, and they will likely be weak when the April numbers are revealed in a month. 
“I’ve got to say, looking out the window, that we may see an extension of this weakness into April’s numbers,” he said. 
The unemployment rate improved to a seasonally-adjusted 5.4 percent, largely because more people stopped looking for work, dropping the state labor force participation rate to 70.8 percent. That's near the record low, 70.7 percent, set in September 2012
The job losses are also in line with national trends. The Bureau of Labor Statitistics said earlier this month that the nation only created 88,000 jobs in March -- far below average and below analyst expectations.
Well, as long as "we're in line with the national trends," why worry?

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