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Monday, February 25, 2013

Kill The Sequester; Expedite Oil Production in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana; Did We Just Get a Hint on Quid Pro Quo for the Keystone?

The Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
“People outside Washington complain the federal government can’t get things done,” Timmons said. “The bureaucracy and red tape surrounding Keystone XL for nearly 5 years has been inexcusable.”
That pretty much sums it up.

Hey, by the way, in his prepared remarks this a.m., President Obama said if the GOP agrees to kill the "sequester," or at least "kick the can down the road a bit," his administration will "expedite oil production in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana." Nice quid pro quo.

South Dakota should be particularly excited.

Note: phrases in quotes are paraphrases; exact quotes from the president's speech can be found at the original source which I have not linked.

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No direct hint, by the way, whether he plans to approve the Keystone XL.

However, there may have been a huge indirect hint: "Expediting oil production in ND, SD, and MT" could be "the hint."

Everyone agrees that Bakken production is held back by takeaway capacity (neither rail nor pipeline is currently adequate); the only way to quickly expedite production: completion of the Keystone XL -- at least that's the new spin on the Keystone.

K Street, Kazakhstan, Kyrzakhstan, Kerry, Keystone, Kompromise -- I guess "K" is in this year. 

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Could just the announcement of approving the Keystone XL 2.0 drop the price of WTI by $10/bbl?  And, of course, the Bakken with it?

7 comments:

  1. Since I have a working interest in a Bakken well I am not a Keystone fan. I imagine anyone that benefits from a higher Bakken oil price is also not a fan.

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    1. ... as a side note, anyone with "one" well in the Bakken, will eventually have four, some will have eight, and some will have significantly more.

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  2. How much Bakken oil would realistically be expected to move through the Keystone pipeline if it is completed? And, why would ND oil companies want to move oil through the Keystone pipeline? Would not mixing sweet ND crude with Canadian tar sand oil just depress the price of Bakken oil since it is mixed with the lesser quality Canadian oil?

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    1. The "answers" to those hypothetical questions have already been posted at the blog. When I get caught up, I might look for the posting and link it.

      I do believe pricing will change significantly (for Canadian oil sands, Bakken, and WTI) if the Keystone is completed. I think the pricing will be counter-intuitive. Remember, most (?) American refineries have been optimized for heavy oil over the past decades; the price of Canadian heavy oil and Bakken reflects transportation costs to a significant extent. With the Keystone, Seaway, Capline, and Trunkline, that's a lot of pipeline.

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    2. http://www.milliondollarwayblog.com/2013/02/enbridge-to-flow-oil-from-midwest-to.html

      Shipper interest in Keystone XL remains strong, TransCanada said, with the pipeline having firm, long-term contracts to transport more than 500,000 b/d of Western Canada Sedimentary basin crude to existing US Gulf Coast refineries. TransCanada’s Bakken Marketlink, using facilities which form part of Keystone XL, currently has firm, long-term contracts to transport 65,000 b/d of Bakken crude oil from the Williston basin in North Dakota and Montana. Keystone XL’s initial capacity will be 830,000 b/d. -- May 4, 2012, Oil & Gas Journal

      With regard to adding Bakken oil to Canadian oil sands: as a diluent, the condensate may be what they add.

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  3. And the five wealthiest counties in the United States are all around Washington DC. The federal government sure knows how to take care of itself even if it is a drag and is harmful to the rest of the country.

    This sequester thing amounts to a 2 percent reduction in spending. If it is impossible to find 2 percent to cut from this wasteful bolted federal government because of their addiction to spending then we are on a very destructive course that will end very bad. Just keep spending and keep printing more phoney money to put off the crash long enough so they won't be around to go through the days of hell when everything comes due.

    Sequester, forget it our great leaders think they know what is best for us and remember they come first and will be taken care of first.

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    1. I agree.

      It will be interesting if the GOP can handle the pressure to cave in.

      But I do believe the thing both sides are really worried about is reaching the "debt limit" again; it certainly appears the automatic cuts are going to take place. Interestingly enough there has been very little actual movement -- with the fiscal cliff there were meetings going on all the time, even if not particularly fruitful. I'm really not aware of much happening with regard to the automatic cuts.

      But if the federal govt cannot handle a 2 percent cut in spending .... wow.

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