2012: Best Year Ever for Average Price of Oil; Will It Continue?

Link here to Rigzone.com.

With futures markets anticipating a price of Brent crude oil of $110/bbl this year, an easing to $90/bbl appears possible in three unlikely cases, according to Panorama 2013, an annual review by IFP Energy Nouvelles (IFPEN) of Paris:
• “A strongly deteriorated economic situation” with growth worse than projected by the International Monetary Fund in its base-case World Economic Outlook.
• Greater stability and less tension than prevail now in North Africa and the Middle East.
• Faster-than-forecast growth in US production of oil from shales and other low-permeability formations.
“Such scenarios, unlikely today, must not be excluded in principle,” wrote the Panorama 2013 author, Guy Maisonnier. “Surprises are a common occurrence in the oil market.”

Actually, I think two of the three scenarios cited are very possible.