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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Six Years To Get Back to 6.5% Unemployment -- CNBC

The first question: why did CNBC choose 6.5% as the goal? Because the Fed said they would peg interest rates to jobs, and once unemployment moved toward 7%, it would start tightening.

MDW posted this a couple days ago or so (January 4, 2012, to be exact), and now Steve Liesman over at CNBC  has a short segment.

A couple of data points, according to Steve Liesman:
  • at 155,000 jobs/month --> six years to get to 6.5% unemployment
  • majority of central bankers see first rate increase in 2015 (rate increase now tied to jobs)
Two comments: during my peak earning years, full employment was considered to be 4%. Apparently the goal posts are being moved for our children and grandchildren: to 6.5%. And with all the safety nets in place, one cannot argue that 7 - 8 percent might not be injurious to those who are content/satisfied with the United States economy.

Interestingly, MDW was more optimistic than Steve Liesman. At the link, MDW said it would only take four years or so to get back to the baseline. Four years, six years, eight years -- does it really matter any more?

Here is the link to CNBC: it does not show the first graph that Steve Liesman showed -- the one that showed six years to get to 6.5% unemployment with 155,000 / month. 

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