Saturday Morning

Wow, I'm in a good mood. Unfortunately I don't have much time to blog. I lost a lot of time replying to a couple of comments, but they were important comments.

I'm particularly excited for several reasons:

• it's a warm day in the local area; overcast, but really, really comfortable; love this global warming; I think all older people do; extreme cold weather is hard on some of us -- ask the Russians and the Chinese this year. But I digress....
• I haven't even started looking at the weekend edition of the WSJ which I always anticipate with great excitement, but I do have the fourth section open, ready to read [updated: review of the WSJ is down below]
• I eagerly await Chevron's earnings report for 4Q12; the company expects a "notable" increase in its earnings. Over thirty years of investment; I don't recall a "utility-like" company ever using the word "notably" in a pre-earnings statement; it will be interesting to see how the market reacts (disclaimer: this is not an investment site; make no investment decisions based on what you read here)
• reflecting on the snippet of an interview at the WSJ suggesting that the US will replace all -- repeat, the US will replace all -- light sweet oil imports with its own domestically produced light sweet oil by mid-2103 (mid-2013? that's five or six months from now!); think of the winners and losers; I may do a stand-alone post on that if I find time; one big winner: Delta Airlines
• all things being equal, the Bakken operators should be able to open the spigots now that there will be increased storage capacity at Cushing; this is huge; 
• 2-million-bbl EURs in the better part of the Bakken; when the blog started several years ago, the Bakken EURs were generally assumed to be about 500,000 bbls
• the declining number of permits, or decreasing leasing activity in the Bakken -- at least suggested by the first two weeks of data in 2013; most areas with leases held by production; decreased costs to the Bakken-centric producer for leases; more CAPEX available for production (I could be misreading this)
• but all-in-all, I think it was the CVX announcement that put me in a good mood. CVX is off its highs but had a great day yesterday; especially compared to COP, and even to XOM

So, the WSJ links today, in the time I have remaining

Section D (Off Duty):

The front page starts with "tech's new frontier" -- smarter TVs, ultra-HD films, banner year in gadgetry.

Personal (not in the WSJ): We had not bought a new television in 20 or 30 years for my wife's parents' home, but now that we added cable internet, and wi-fi, at that house, I finally gave in an replaced the 12-inch black-and-white television/broken VCR combo with a Vizio 32-inch smart television and a new stand-alone Blu-Ray DVD player with a connection using an HDMI cable. Everyone I know did this ten years ago; we finally moved into the late 20th century. Smile. It is absolutely incredible. And the price for the Vizio at Target during the post-Christmas sale was, to say the least, incredible. I was afraid to get the "smart" television, thinking it might be "smarter" than I when hooking it up  (translation: I wouldn't be able to hook it up in a house with 1950's technology). Wow, was I surprised. I followed each step slowly and exactly and it worked perfectly.  So, for anyone out there 62 years and older, afraid of new technology, don't be afraid. ATT U-Verse works as advertised; the customer support was incredible; and we now can play internet apps on the "smart TV" without subscribing to internet/cable television. Yup, antenna reception is all we need in southern California with internet wi-fi. Truly amazing. And like I said, we are still about 20 years behind what is possible, I suppose.

Okay, this could be the story of the day, page D4: lipstick that goes the distance -- new long-wearing formulas deliver on their promise of endurance. The article does not mention whether the "new" lipsticks still contain powder from crushed parasitic beetles.

A full page article on the Madrono Ranch, in Medina, TX, 90 minutes from San Antonio, featuring the Dai Due School for hunting and barbecuing. Less than $50 for a five-day non-resident hunting license. WSJ's recommendation for target practice before beginning: the Lone Star Gun Range near Lockhart, TX, outside Austin.

Section C (Review -- books, the arts, politics) -- simply my favorite weekend section:

Three troubled allies: Japan, Israel, and Britain are facing big problems of their own just as the US needs their help. Will read later.

Editing our genes, one letter at a time. Will read later.

This looks very, very promising: a book review of Listening for Madeleine, editor/author Leonard Marcus. The review is written by James Kennedy.

Wow, two new books (and reviews) of Sherlock Holmes. I have never gotten into Sherlock but that could be my next phase. I had expected to move into Charles Dickens but got sidetracked by JRR Tolkien. One could spend a lifetime on Tolkien. I need to move on.

A review of Georgette Heyer's novels, life.

Oh, this is very, very interesting: the honcho of high-end headphones, Beats Electronics, is featured. Beats is a huge part of the Apple culture and was the subject of one of Macrumors postings earlier this week.

And then this, a review of Daniel Defoe's masterpiece, Robinson Crusoe, 1719. Wow, Robinson Crusoe and, specifically Daniel Defoe, were a huge part of my early days when I began an aggressive reading program in the late summer of 2002 and continue to this day. This "aggressive reading program" truly saved my life. But that's probably more than you want/need to know. But I'm not alone. I'm thinking of Harold Bloom --

Section B:

Wow, front page article by Jason Zweig, on TSPs - the Thrift Savings Programs. I will tell you all about them later if I have time. These are incredible programs. Only comment now: TSPs demonstrate (for lack of a better word) how clever, smart, brilliant, driven, determined, choose your adjective, to describe retired general officers of the military.  I can't wait to read the entire article, slowly, and then maybe blog about it.

Section A:

Mr Obama will speed troop exit from Afghanistan. All I can say is "about time." Wasn't this the 2008 campaign pledge? Remember, this was the individual who was given the Nobel Peace Prize on expectations. If we are out of Afghanistan by the end of the year, he deserved the prize. Now, we have to get ourselves out of Germany. We still have strategic interests in Japan and England. But strategic interests in Germany? Perhaps one transit air base (Ramstein) as a way station to hot spots throughout the region, but fighter bases in Germany? Okay, maybe one.

Also, front page: Dinner with strangers: pass the mac. Can't wait to read.

Page three: most important page of the WSJ as we've discussed before. Today: LA's waterway; flu shots only moderately effective this year; and, EPA citation further muddles Shell's Arctic plans. More good news for the Bakken.

Rockefeller's senate exit lifts GOP hopefuls. Rockefeller. West Virginia. Clever man.

Here we go, page A9: the Greeks are raiding forests in search of wood to heat homes. We've seen this movie before. Turkey is treeless from doing the same thing centuries ago. Sad. Predictable. Where is the outrage? Why are faux environmentalists not demanding the US "donate" excess fossil fuel to Greece? After all, even Venezuela discounted fuel oil to the US northeast. I think Venezuela even gave some of it to the US for free, but my memory does not serve me well in this case. [I just checked; I was wrong: it was simply heavily discounted, although at this link the word "free" is used on more than one occasion. ]

Op-ed:

Peggy Noonan: the GOP needs to be unpredictable and bold; grab some of the president's issues. As noted some time ago, I have become less enamored with Ms Noonan since November. I probably won't read the piece: I love political news; I have less time for purely party-political op-eds.

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., addresses "our 'hottest year' and Al Gore's epic failure." Now, that is one I will read.

I won't read Lloyd Sederer's op-ed on the tragedy of mental-health law. It's a dog-bites-man story. The teaser: "patient protections have become rigid rules excluding families from patient care and exceeding common sense."

Sports Page:

The NFL needs some BCS: why the playoffs would be spicier if pro teams played in bowls. Maybe. Maybe not. Home field advantage is not trivial.  And it might not be "fair" to fans.

Motley Fool on Murphy Oil and COP/PSX

First, COP/PSX:

Since the May 1, 2012 spin-off, the two component parts of the formerly-integrated ConocoPhillips have taken somewhat divergent paths. Whereas the spun-off downstream retailer known as Phillips 66 has enjoyed market-beating returns over the past three quarters, the upstream producer that retains the ConocoPhillips name has enjoyed mediocre returns. These contrasting fortunes are indicative of specific challenges faced by ConocoPhillips as well as a successful unlocking of the long-dormant value in the core businesses of Phillips 66.

During the spin-off, ConocoPhillips distributed shares of the newly-created Phillips 66 stock to ConocoPhillips shareholders of record as of the close of trading on April 16, 2012. Each shareholder received one new Phillips 66 share for every two ConocoPhillips shares that they held. Any remaining fractional shares were combined and sold on the open market for cash consideration.

On the day of the spin-off, ConocoPhillips closed at $56.51 per share. It has since risen in value to touch $59.17 per share as of January 7, 2013. This represents a return of about 4.7 percent during an eight-month period. Meanwhile, Phillips 66 closed at $32.76 per share on May 1, 2012. During the subsequent eight months, it has nearly doubled in value. On January 7, 2013, it closed at $51.36 per share after touching an all-time high above $55 during the previous week. Shareholders who have held this stock since its inception have earned returns of nearly 58 percent.

Second, Murphy Oil (MUR):

Yet to be voted on; later this summer.