Last week the latest set of Bakken crude production numbers showed
another big increase to reach 728 Mb/d. The challenge all along for this
prolific land locked basin has been one of finding a ready market for
growing production. Meeting that challenge in the absence of quickly
available pipeline capacity led to creative solutions and many new
destinations. Today we contemplate what they are going to do with all
that crude.
This new record production level for September 2012 is up another 27
Mb/d over August. North Dakota now accounts for nearly 12 percent of
total U.S. crude production, up from 1 percent less than five years ago.
RBN Energy blog readers will be familiar with the reasons behind these
production statistics. We recently covered overall US production
increases from shale oil in the big three plays – the Bakken, Permian
and Eagle Ford basins (see Will the Crude Production Boom Keep Running?).
The charts [at the linked article] show the pace of Bakken crude production since the
start of 2008. [The data is for North Dakota but remember that there is
also Bakken production in Montana (~50 Mb/d) and South Dakota (~5Mb/d)].
[One chart] shows actual monthly production in Mb/d. We added
a trend projection (red dotted line) to [another chart] –
following the period of most rapid growth from July 2011 and projecting
forward until production hit 1 MMb/d during the fourth quarter of 2013.
If we just grow 20,000 BOD per month we should reach 1,000,000 BOD by the end of 2013. 3 months left to report this year and 12 months in 2013 would be another 300,000bod to add to total.
http://www.legis.nd.gov/fiscal/biennium-reports/62-2011/budget-status/rev.pdf just some general thoughts on how much money the oil industry is bringing into ND. The link is to ND budget 2011 to 2013. They estimated 11.5% tax from oil to bring in 300 million. Here are my numbers just for a year. At 700,000 Barrols of oil per day at $75 per barrol 11.5% would be about 2 billion in taxs just for 1 year. I wonder why they under estimated it so badly. Our state budget for 2008 to 2011 was about 2.75 billion. Also just think about all the extra income tax and sales tax the state will be getting, might be billions also.
I believe there are some taxes that are not collected during the first year of production, but in the big scheme of things, it seems the state has underestimated oil income.
At the tags at the bottom of the blog, one can click on NDBudget to see some of the under-estimations and the trend.
If we just grow 20,000 BOD per month we should reach 1,000,000 BOD by the end of 2013. 3 months left to report this year and 12 months in 2013 would be another 300,000bod to add to total.
ReplyDeleteIt would be quite a milestone, wouldn't it?
Deletehttp://www.legis.nd.gov/fiscal/biennium-reports/62-2011/budget-status/rev.pdf
ReplyDeletejust some general thoughts on how much money the oil industry is bringing into ND. The link is to ND budget 2011 to 2013. They estimated 11.5% tax from oil to bring in 300 million. Here are my numbers
just for a year. At 700,000 Barrols of oil per day at $75 per barrol 11.5% would be about 2 billion in taxs just for 1 year. I wonder why they under estimated it so badly. Our state budget for 2008 to 2011 was about 2.75 billion. Also just think about all the extra income tax and sales tax the state will be getting, might be billions also.
I believe there are some taxes that are not collected during the first year of production, but in the big scheme of things, it seems the state has underestimated oil income.
DeleteAt the tags at the bottom of the blog, one can click on NDBudget to see some of the under-estimations and the trend.