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Monday, November 26, 2012

Saudi's Export Profile During Recent Doubling in Brent Prices

The Oil Drum has another article on peak oil; lots of graphs.

The final paragraph:
The above Saudi estimate, based [on] the six year decline in their ECI ratio, seems to be impossibly pessimistic, but then one has to ask the following question: Why would the Saudi net export profile be materially different from what other prior case histories, with similar ECI declines, have shown? (Note that there are certainly case histories of temporary ECI declines, e.g., the Saudis themselves in the early Eighties, in response to falling oil prices, but the 2005 to 2011 decline in their ECI ratio corresponded to a doubling in annual Brent prices.)
The ECI ratio as defined by BP: ratio of domestic total petroleum liquids production to liquids consumption.

So, if I understand this correctly, the ECI takes into account recessions, decreased demand, conservation, etc., etc. So, perhaps Saudi was just playing nice with its OPEC neighbors and letting them take up the slack.  Saudi says they have more than enough oil to meet any shortfall.

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