Updates
November 8, 2012: a reader sent me this link -- the Canadian perspective on the Keystone following election results.
November 7, 2012: note the five (5) headwinds facing approval of the Keystone XL 2.0. Now we can add another: Nebraska faux environmentalists will still fight it. The Nebraska Sandhills issue was just a charade. Link here to Dickinson Press. [We haven't even added the lawsuits yet to tie the whole thing up in courts.]
TransCanada spokesman Shawn Howard says the company believes Obama will eventually approve the Keystone XL project once it reaches his desk next year because it will deliver oil from a friendly country.And I believe in the tooth fairy.
Original Post
Results of the last poll:
Will XOM buy more Bakken acreage in the next 12 months, or are they done (this follows the XOM-DNR deal in late 2011)?
- Yes, XOM will buy more Bakken acreage in the next 12 months: 72%
- No, XOM will NOT buy more Bakken acreage in the next 12 months: 14%
- Don't care: 10%
- No opinion: 5%
In light of the issues facing the Canadian oil sands, will TransCanada build the Keystone XL 2.0?
These are some of the issues facing TransCanada:
- oil sands are prohibitively expensive; already some operators are scaling back
- Texas landowners are gaining clout to have this pipeline stopped
- little urgency by US to re-consider the permit application
- with relative glut of oil and risk of economic downturn, investors see little need for another huge pipeline
- Asians are more interested in Canadian oil than Americans; and Asians are buying Canadian oil sands
So, the poll:
- Am I wrong; yes, the Keystone XL will be completed during this administration, vote "yes"
- Am I wrong; no; the Keystone XL will not be completed during this administration, vote 'no."
there is about 250 miles worth of pipe that has set in storage 1 mile east of Gascoyne ND . this pipe has been in storage for almost 2 years now..
ReplyDeleteThe storage yard is across the highway 12 from the American Coaloid plant..
Something tells me TransCanada is not going to start taking that pipe out of storage today.
DeleteI find it hard to believe that Keystone XL will be built in the next four years. It has become more than a pipeline. Instead it has become an emotional flash point issue for the radical environmentalist and with the continuation of the current administration it will not challenge a major part of its base.
ReplyDeleteThere are big questions on the table in regards to the slew of regulations that will be implemented effecting the oil and gas industry. Until there is clarity there could be a major contraction on exploration especially with wildcatting into less than prime areas. What will happen in the prime areas like the heart to the Bakken will depend on what those repressive regulations are imposed on fracturing, water usage, flaring and release of methane at well sights.
The election did not relax these concerns but increased them. The one thing that will change this uncertainty is a dramatic increase on hydrocarbon prices under an economy that has basically collapsed.
This is not a pleasant thing to contemplate.
I agree 100%.
DeleteI have a draft note that I will post in a day or two, but one can easily make a case for the end of the Bakken boom in late 2013.
And you are correct: the Keystone XL 2.0 is not "just" a pipeline; it's a rallying point for faux-environmentalists.
Wow I hope you are incorrect about the end of 2013 but it is possible as you say. Economic suicide by way of class envy seems to be popular with half of our citizens.
DeleteI am so enthusiastic about the Bakken, it would be inappropriate not to warn folks, especially newbies, that there are huge risks in the Bakken. I hope I'm wrong, also, about 2013.
DeleteWith the election behind him President Obama may now move "forward" promoting any number of things he wishes to accomplish. Personally, I seriously doubt the Keystone XL is one of them. In fact one news report out today is that the administration has alread floated a trial balloon about bringing back the Cap & Trade Carbon Tax as one means of generating more government revenue. I suspect it's far more likely he'll push that rather than the new pipeline. Hope I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteYou are 100% correct. I'm trying to think of something that is of lower priority on his "to do" list, than signing the permit for the Keystone XL.
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ReplyDeleteONEOK, with its pending oil pipeline, could be a big beneficiary of a Keystone XL death.
Will be curious on your thoughts on the future of the Bakken. Thinking of selling Bakken stocks and just keeping EOG (with Eagle Ford) and Pioneer (Permian).
Off the record, because, this is not an investment site, I would be very happy if my total Bakken operator shares were in EOG alone. (I don't follow Pioneer so cannot comment.) Note "operator." I would still hold shares in infrastructure such as pipelines (ONEOK, ENB, etc).
DeleteIf permitting the Keystone is low on the president's "to do" list, federal fracking regulation is high on the "to do" lists of lots of folks in Washington, DC.
Whats cheaper to produce, tar sands or shale oil? What is cheaper to refine?
ReplyDeleteI see demand for tar sands declining, therefore the need for a pipeline for tar sands oil is going away.
I think oil men who did not want to see an increase in the glut of oil in Cushing had more to do with killing the Keystone than did Obama.
Obama is not running for re-election now so he does not need to appease his base. I think he is more concerned now about his legacy which means he wants job growth. Dragging the oil industry down with overbearing rules on fracing would not be in that interest.
Half of your note is partly correct. The other half is completely wrong.
DeleteI would agree the first part is correct.
DeleteIn regards to a legacy I'm not convinced. To have a positive legacy would require a respect for what our country is. The President's first term did not demonstrate that respect and it would take a dramatic course change for that to happen. To me he is too committed to a ideology that resents who we are as a country and that trumps a legacy. His party would have to force him to do that and I don't see it happening.
You have said it much better than I could. You are exactly right. The president is an ideologue and a narcissist. He is also an angry man; one saw his true personality more than ever in the last days of the campaign. And he does, in fact, resent who "we" are as a country.
DeletePresidents are change agents. Toying with the oil and gas industry is trivial. Moving the country toward 100% renewable energy without regard to cost is the goal. Destroying the coal industry was a true game changer; he was able to do that without losing re-election. That speaks volumes.
Could it be that coal is less important due to an abundance of cheap natural gas?
ReplyDeleteNope.
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