Jobless Claims: The Less-Volatile Four-Week Moving Average Approaching the Magic Number

Link here to Bloomberg.

Remember, the magic number is 400,000. 

This story is particularly interesting for two reasons: a) the four-week moving average has reached 400,000 for all practical purposes, especially if the numbers are revised upward next week, as expect; and, b) blame for the worsening numbers were placed on everything and everyone except on George Bush.

Here is what the jobless claims are blamed on this week:

• Sandy
• global economic slowdown
• fiscal cliff

Quote of the day: Sandy is a “temporary setback for the job market,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, who correctly forecast the figure. Beyond the storm, “the job market is still very weak and it’s going to remain that way until we get some fiscal clarity.”

Let's parse that a bit: "temporary" -- every week there is a "temporary" reason for the setback. See data points going back to January 21, 2011, almost two years ago. And then this: "The job market is still very weak...." Well, duh. "And it's going to remain that way until we get some fiscal clarity."  Oh, why do I even bother? Smile.  

The four-week average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 396,250 from 386,750.

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that every week there is some unexpected event that causes the first-time jobless claims to jump? It's an interesting phenomenon.