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Sunday, November 25, 2012

Not Trivial: Global Liquid Fuel Production Up 15 Million Bbls Per Day In Ten Years

From The Oil Drum:
World total liquid fuel production data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that global liquid fuel production has risen steadily (in stages) from 76.3 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in January 2002 to a recent high of 91.3 mmbpd in July 2012. The +15 million bbls per day represents a 20% uplift in liquid fuel supply in little over a decade.
63% of that increase from OPEC; 23% of that increase from non-OPEC countries. That's what was said at the link. I do not know who the 14% who would be both OPEC/"non-OPEC." France, Turkey, probably swing both ways, depending on the day of the week, but neither has much production. 

Some notable data points from the linked article:
  • Biofuels production flat for the past three years: Biofuels production has risen from 0.35 mmbpd in January 2002 to 2.15 mmbpd in July 2012. As data recording techniques have improved a clear annual cyclicity is emerging in global biofuels production. Production has been flat for 3 years. Note that biofuels have a significantly different energy balance than fossil based liquid fuels. Substantial quantities of natural gas, diesel and electricity are required to produce ethanol and biodiesel, in many cases with little energy gain.
  • Refinery gains but not energy gain: Refinery processing gains have risen from 1.82 mmbpd in January 2002 to 2.17 mmbpd in July 2012. The volume expansion of liquids during refining does not represent energy gain. The chemical alteration due to refinery processes results in lower density products relative to crude oil inputs. The slight rise in processing gains reflects the shift in global oil supply from light sweet crude to heavier grades that provide more volume expansion during processing.

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