Updates
October 12, 2012: FT - Turkey steps up military presence along Syrian border
Turkey has increased its military presence along its 900km border with Syria, scrambling jets and dispatching scores of tanks in the continuing face-off between Ankara and Damascus.
Two fighter aircraft flew along a stretch of the border after a Syrian helicopter bombed the nearby Syrian village of Azmarin, while Turkish media reported that up to 250 tanks were in the border area.October 12, 2012: WSJ, page A13, editorial -- Turkey's Dangerous Assad Dilemma;
The Sunni-Schiite schism stretches from Iran and Iraq to Syria and Hezbollah's reign in Beirut, versus a Sunni bloc from North Africa to the eastern Mediterranean, clustered around Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
Syria is the prize, and the epicenter, of this contest. Hard as Mr Erdogan (Turkey's prime minister) would try to keep the struggle for Syria within tolerable bounds, the cruelty of the civil war there would overwhelm his policy. He had pledged himself to the removal of Assad, but the dictator had not obliged. Nor had Washington -- particularly President Obama, obsessed with self-preservation -- been the ally Mr Erdogan had hoped for.October 11, 2012: WSJ, page A10 concurs -- Syrian conflict grows on two fronts -- Turkey forces Damascus-bound plane to land; American sends troops to Jordan
October 10, 2012: Nobel peace prize winner sends US troops to Jordan.
The revelation of U.S. military personnel so close to the 19-month-old Syrian conflict suggests an escalation in the U.S. military involvement in the conflict, even as Washington pushes back on any suggestion of a direct intervention in Syria.October 9, 2012: pipelines from Iran and Iraq to Turkey are blowing up. Mysteriously.
October 8, 2012: Israel launches airstrike over Gaza after rockets from Gaza hit Israel; supposedly hits a mosque; Israel says Iran 2 - 4 months from "path to nuclear weapon";
October 8, 2012: Turkey shells Syria for sixth day. Turkey president says worse case scenario playing out in Syria; Turkey will do what it takes to protect itself.
October 6, 2012: In the original post, I mention the 3:00 a.m. phone call from Libya that "we" all slept through. The rank-and-file in the intel community is starting to rally behind their immediate leadership: the White House simply did not respond to the Libyan threat -- either a mistake or on purpose.
The Drudge Report says the White House is starting to point fingers; maybe/maybe not, but the administration is now trying to get its story straight. Maybe this is the story that should air two days before the election rather than the documentary on the Bin Laden mission. For which Michelle and Barack were given credit, not the intelligence community.
It will be interesting where this story ends: an opportunity for a Pulitzer Prize if any reporter is interested. It should not be too difficult to find off-the-record, anonymous sources from the intel community. Look for some "leaked" e-mails.
Original Post
A regular talking head says Iran is ready to implode; sanctions taking a toll. He says governments topple due to inflation, riots in the streets. He failed to mention that before a government fails, they often do very rash things.
Iran leadership has said Israel's days are numbered. The US official position on that (if the president represents official position): Iran's posturing is just "noise."
Then, in the last hour or so, we get news that Turkey has authorized military action INSIDE Syria. Maybe it's just me, but there's something scary about a NATO country authorizing military action inside a non-NATO country. Just saying.
With all the internal problems Syria has at the moment, it's hard to believe that Turkish military action could be the catalyst for regime change. It's hard for me to believe that Russia will idly stand by and let that happen.
In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Syria has a closer relationship with Russia than with the United States. In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Turkey has a closer relationship with the United States than with Russia.
This will be interesting to follow.
Of course, we all know what happened in Libya when the 3:00 a.m. call came in and we were sleeping. I think about that when I connect the stories above and haven't heard anything from Saudi Arabia. I doubt the princes are unaware of what's happening in their neighborhood.
And Egypt isn't exactly quiet. Wow, Israel has to be watching events in Syria very, very closely. And Egypt on its west. And Iran. This is not good.
This is simply idle chatter, just thinking what it must be like to be living in the Mideast these days. It has to be very, very interesting.
Bruce, I tend to agree with your thoughts on this. Very scary times we live in.
ReplyDeleteThe "world" has a way of just muddling through and kicking these "tensions" down the road, so it's possible "we" will just muddle through again, but the Russian-Syrian / US - Turkey issue has to be very, very challenging for Ms Hillary Clinton. I really do get the feeling Mr Putin would like to take on Mr Obama mano a mano. The Mideast could be where it happens.
DeleteBruce I agree with your thoughts on this. Very scary times we are living in. Wonder what's going to happen "after " the election?
ReplyDeleteThat's a great question.
DeleteIf Mr Obama wins re-election, I would assume it's more or less more of the same (whatever that might be).
However, if Mr Romney wins, we have a real lame duck / departing administration running the show for almost three months -- until January 20th. Most of the lame duck/departing administration folks at the higher levels (political appointees, etc) will be transitioning to a new job, and there is great risk someone may take their "eye off the ball."
The personnel in the trenches at the bureaucracies / the agencies / the military will continue to do great work, but it's hard for me to believe that Ms Clinton for example, if Mr Obama loses election, would be working 24/7 for the State Department trying to put out these brush fires. I would think she would be looking to her new life / new job.
So you ask a great question. There are two "post-election periods." The shorter transition period if Mr Romney wins; and the longer post-election period if Mr Obama wins. There are so many possibilities, I can't even begin to hazard a guess.
Obama bombed in the debate, so expect him to bomb someone in real life. October.
ReplyDelete---
See RBN. Is the NYT embarrassed yet? Have they admitted that they lied and Aubrey was honest about the Marcellus?
"exceeded ... Wildest estimates"
I would say, "at least what CHK said." At least.
The NYT is mostly advocacy, not news. And almost always wrong in its advocacy.
Anon 1
Thank you.
DeleteI think you and I are the only ones that remember that story, "The New York Times" story. I think I was one of the first to call them on that; many followed (but of course, not because of my original post) but I was flattered to have saw it, if not first, at least early.
When I started the blog, I had no understanding of (and no interest in) natural gas. It was the NY Times article that changed everything. I have several stand-alone posts on that one story. This is the July, 2011, post:
http://www.milliondollarwayblog.com/2011/07/wow-wow-and-wow-new-york-times-is.html
At one time googling "Scam" "natural gas" "NY Times" put the Million Dollar Way as the number 1 or 2 hit. No longer the case, but not surprising due to length of time since posting the story and all that has happened in the past.
Bottom line: good, bad, or indifferent, the NY Times story pushed me into understanding natural gas, and I understand it a bit better now.
My guess is that no matter who gets elected the can will be kicked down the road another year. I mean as far as the fiscal cliff goes, Bush tax cuts extension for all. I think all electable politicians in this country are trying to screw you over in their own way so I like to think I have an unbiased (probably don't) opinion when it comes to Democrats and Republicans going at it. And that was a major butt whoopin' Romney put on Obama last night. Not that Romney was stellar but that Obama was so bad. I don't get surprised much but that surprised me.
ReplyDeleteAnd their dithering, kicking the can down another three or four months at a time, makes it very, very difficult for companies to plan an annual budget. Look at that retroactive tax on solar panels.
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